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Two of the six 0-3 teams left this season face off Thursday when the favored Denver Broncos (-2, 39.5) travel to play the New York Jets, who are perhaps a loss or two away from needing to find a new head coach.
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Thursday night's contest.
This may come as a shock, but this isn't a great spot to bet on Adam Gase after the Jets' 36-7 loss to the Colts on Sunday. The Jets head coach is 11-22-1 against the spread in his career after a loss, and he's 10-16-1 ATS following a double-digit defeat. Gase is also 5-11-1 ATS after his team scores 14 or fewer points in the previous game. His teams are averaging 16.5 points in those 17 subsequent contests.
Gase is 0-4 ATS on Thursday nights, too, while the Broncos are riding a 10-3 ATS run on Thursday games. They're also 6-2 ATS over their last eight after a loss under head coach Vic Fangio, whose defense is holding opponents to 16.4 points per game when his side is favored.
A matchup between winless teams also favors Denver here. The favorite is 6-3 ATS over the last nine meetings between 0-3 teams, including consecutive 24-point victories and an average scoring margin of 11.7 points. The road team is also 9-3 ATS in such contests since 1996.
Need more fuel to fade New York? Four teams have started 0-3 with three double-digit losses since 2011. A fourth loss followed for all four squads, and it came by 10-plus points in an ATS defeat. Also, the last six teams in that spot all scored 14 or fewer points, with five of those games going under.
Melvin Gordon over 60.5 rushing yards (-112)
With a new quarterback this week in Brett Rypien, the Broncos will likely rely heavily on their workhorse back. If they do, Gordon is a solid bet to produce, as he's topped 60.5 rushing yards in 30 of his last 36 games when given 15-plus carries.
Gordon recorded 78 yards in Week 1 and 70 yards in Week 2 before getting held to eight carries for 26 yards against a stout Buccaneers defense. The Jets' run defense is solid, but it's still allowed the eighth-most rushing yards (344) to running backs through three weeks.
Braxton Berrios under 40.5 receiving yards (-112)
Berrios' storyline has been fun for fantasy owners and beleaguered Jets fans, but don't expect it to continue Thursday. The third-year receiver had registered six career catches entering this season before notching at least four grabs for 59 yards in each of the last two weeks.
Over his four-year college career at Miami, Berrios logged three straight games with 40-plus yards just three times in 46 contests. With Jamison Crowder returning as Sam Darnold's top target, don't expect the 5-foot-9 Berrios to fill up the box score this week.
Jets under 19.5 points (-104)
The Jets' offense is the league's worst, and it has been for nearly Gase's entire tenure. The Jets are averaging 12.3 points per game this season. They've also scored 20-plus points in just six of 19 games under Gase, and the team has reached that mark only three times in 11 tries after a loss.
Both clubs should struggle to score Thursday, so the game under is a safe play, too. The better route is to fade New York's inept offense coming off a short week of preparation.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.