NFL bad line of the week: A get-right game for the Texans
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Detecting a bad line in the NFL is tough, but they certainly exist. With Week 4 on the horizon, here's how we're approaching the board.
Week 4 lines
| Matchup | Spread |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Jets | DEN -3 |
| Ravens @ WFT | BAL -13 |
| Saints @ Lions | NO -4 |
| Chargers @ Buccaneers | TB -7.5 |
| Colts @ Bears | IND -2.5 |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | ARI -3.5 |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | CIN -3 |
| Vikings @ Texans | HOU -3.5 |
| Seahawks @ Dolphins | SEA -6.5 |
| Steelers @ Titans | PIT -1 |
| Browns @ Cowboys | DAL -4.5 |
| Giants @ Rams | LAR -13 |
| Bills @ Raiders | BUF -3 |
| Patriots @ Chiefs | KC -7 |
| Eagles @ 49ers | SF -6.5 |
| Falcons @ Packers | GB -7.5 |
Bad line of the week: Texans (-3.5 vs. Vikings)
The Texans' 0-3 start is hardly surprising.
The franchise went 8-3 in one-score games in 2019 and shipped a top-five wide receiver in the league to the Cardinals during the offseason. They were a regression candidate from the start after going 10-6 last year.
However, as "bad" as the Texans' record is, it looks a lot more optimistic when adjusting for competition. The Texans started the season against three of the best teams in the AFC - the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers - but are still in the top half of the league in yards per play (5.7) and yards per play allowed (5.7). Rarely is a wash in net yards per play a win, but you have to feel OK if you're Houston considering the strength of schedule.
Now, quarterback Deshaun Watson and the offense can let it fly against a defense that looks flat-out lost through three weeks.
Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer had some daunting units in the past, but this group has a long ways to go. Minnesota ranks No. 23 in the league in yards per play (6.1) allowed, No. 30 in yards per completion (11.9), and No. 31 in points against per game (34.0).
The Vikings were 0-2 against the spread before coming through for bettors in Week 3. They lost 31-30 to the Titans but covered as three-point 'dogs. Now, Minnesota will hit the road as modest underdogs - a role Zimmer's struggled in.
The Vikings are just 2-7 against the spread the last nine as road underdogs and 3-7 ATS the last 10 when getting points in general. Minnesota could find it tough to get up following a narrow loss to Tennessee, while Houston is 10-4-1 ATS the last 15 following an ATS loss.
This is the ideal spot to buy low on the Texans, as they're likely at the bottom of their market range. Expect Houston to get its first win of the season in resounding fashion.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.