Colts 2020 player props: Philip Rivers a blessing for T.Y. Hilton
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We know the Indianapolis Colts can run the ball. Can they become more two-dimensional?
Head coach Frank Reich assembled the offense into a run-first unit last season. The result was the NFL's seventh-best adjusted rushing offense, while the passing game lagged behind at No. 24.
With former longtime Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers joining the fray and the team's core still intact, what can we expect the Colts to look like in 2020?
Here's the best player prop on the board, along with a note on one receiver you should keep tabs on.
T.Y. Hilton - O/U 1,025.5 receiving yards
Hilton's stock is as low as it can be.
He's coming off the worst statistical season of his career, posting 50 catches, 501 yards, and five touchdowns during an injury-riddled 2019. However, his numbers figure to skyrocket with the change at quarterback.
Hilton's going to be a one-man wrecking crew in the Colts' passing game. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett was a game-manager who didn't have much of a knack for the deep ball, which is where Hilton makes his living. Still, the wide receiver owned a noteworthy 24.6% target share last season and ranked third among wide receivers in the NFL with a 35.9% dominator rating, which accounts for a receiver's percentage of total team receiving yards and touchdowns.
However, there is some downside to taking the over on Hilton's yards. Or, just enough to make you sweat it out longer than you have to.
The Colts love keeping the ball on the ground - they ranked No. 5 in the league in run-play percentage last season. The front office also added another piece to the equation, using a second-round pick on Wisconsin tailback Jonathan Taylor.
Rivers' age is also a concern. He showed signs of wear and tear last season, and struggled with the deep ball en route to 20 interceptions.
But when it's all said and done, Hilton's in an optimal situation.
He should see a similar volume to Keenan Allen. The Chargers' No. 1 receiver had at least 135 targets in each of the previous three seasons with Rivers at the helm. Wide receivers Zach Pascal and Parris Campbell are expected to take on larger roles in the Colts' offense, but the leader in the clubhouse will be evident.
Hilton gets to play the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans twice. All three teams ranked No. 22 or worse in DVOA pass defense last season. Overall, 10 of Indianapolis' 16 games come against teams that were in the back half of the league in that category.
Pascal doesn't get a ton of attention, but perhaps he should. A former undrafted free agent out of Old Dominion in 2017, the receiver turned the corner last year. He racked up career highs with 41 catches, 507 yards, and five touchdowns.
Pascal recorded an average target distance of 11.4 yards in 2019, which was significantly better than his 10.1 clip the year prior. He also bagged 143 more completed air yards than he did in 2018.
We may have been talking about Pascal's 2019 campaign more had he not been so unlucky on deep balls - the 25-year-old's 30% catchable target rate on passes 20-plus yards down the field was one of the worst in the league.
While Pascal doesn't have any full-season props, I guarantee there'll be value on his catch and/or yard totals in certain spots during the year.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.