NFL Draft: Best bets for Tua Tagovailoa
I'll be completely honest to open things up: There isn't a prospect in this 2020 NFL Draft class I'm more puzzled by than Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa was the chalk to go No. 1 overall during parts of last season, but he suffered a hip injury in November that required surgery and shut him down for the final few games. Then two weeks ago, it was revealed that the quarterback failed a pair of medicals and that he'd suffered a pair of unknown wrist injuries in the past. With those red flags percolating through the football world, there's a chance Tagovailoa will fall on draft day.
Or, maybe a franchise views him as the second-best quarterback on the board and won't let him slide. There's certainly a lot to sort out with the recent buzz, and we can help with that.
Without further ado, here are the best Tagovailoa-related prop bets to make this week.
Team to draft Tua Tagovailoa
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dolphins | +105 |
| Chargers | +105 |
| Jaguars | +850 |
| Raiders | +950 |
| Lions | +1100 |
| Redskins | +1500 |
| Patriots | +2000 |
| Panthers | +2500 |
| Bengals | +3300 |
| Colts | +5000 |
| Buccaneers | +7000 |
| Bears | +10000 |
Our own Tom Casale got a great number on the Chargers to draft Tagovailoa at +160 last week. With that price long gone, the Jaguars are the best value play at +850. Some of these long shots like Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and Chicago would need to trade up to get Tua. I see Jacksonville in a nice spot at No. 9 overall, as the team also owns the 20th selection, which could be used to move up.
Tua Tagovailoa draft spot over/under 4.5 (-250 / +180)
I felt comfortable going over 3.5 immediately after it was revealed that Tagovailoa failed two physicals. The fact that many teams already gained quarterbacks in free agency has suppressed the market quite a bit. Looking at the board and how the draft order could play out, I'm not sure there's a scenario where the under hits unless a franchise is truly all-in on Tagovailoa. It would have to come via trade, and I'm banking on both the Lions and Giants - who will pick third and fourth, respectively - addressing positional needs rather than getting an offer they can't refuse.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-250)
Will Tagovailoa or Herbert get drafted first?
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | -115 |
| Justin Herbert | -115 |
Justin Herbert's another tricky handicap, which probably does more harm than good in this market. He was viewed as the third-best QB option behind Joe Burrow and Tagovailoa throughout much of the draft process, but he's now starting to look like the QB2 of the class.
Similar to Tagovailoa, Herbert has the Dolphins and Chargers as the two favorites to land him. The former Oregon quarterback's been sitting with an over/under draft slot of 5.5 over the last few weeks, with the juice on the over topping out at -200. As it stands, Herbert is listed at -115 both ways on the over/under. The under may have gotten a slight boost in recent days thanks to the Giants reported interest in the 6-foot-6 prospect.
I'm not buying Herbert to New York, but I do think he's in play at No. 5 to Miami, which would ultimately come before Tagovailoa is off the board.
Pick: Herbert -115
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.