NFL Week 13 underdog plays: Steelers, Broncos, Vikings
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The Denver Broncos prevented a clean sweep in this column last week, while the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets both got the job done.
As a whole, underdogs went 8-6 ATS in Week 12, albeit with only three outright wins. In the spirit of Thanksgiving, we're presenting you with three new 'dogs that should win outright in Week 13.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Browns -2
This is probably as big a revenge spot as you'll see all season, and it could not have come with a better coach. Mike Tomlin's decision-making can sometimes be criticized, but anyone who faults his abilities as a motivator is flat-out wrong. There's nobody better when it comes to rallying players for a big occasion.
You can analyze all the numbers and statistics you want, but the bottom line is that Tomlin won't let his team lose this game. He'll have the image of Myles Garrett's attack on Mason Rudolph ingrained in the minds of his players, and he'll have them prepared to go to battle for each other. Tomlin is also 9-2 ATS as an underdog in December.
Devlin Hodges will get the nod at quarterback this week, and that should boost the Steelers' offense, as Rudolph is simply incapable of driving it down the field. Getting Juju Smith-Schuster and James Conner back will be a massive help as well. The Browns' offense has not traveled well this season, and now it gets a motivated Steelers defense that's among the best in the NFL and dominated the Rams in its last home game. Of these teams, Pittsburgh is better suited to grind out a slugfest and will take care of business on Sunday.
Pick: Steelers +2, Steelers ML
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Line: Chargers -2.5
It really looks like the Chargers have no interest in playing this season out. Philip Rivers is a warrior, but he seems to have hit a wall - both physically and mentally. Every throw he makes appears to be labored, and it doesn't help that he's being beaten up in the pocket. Turnovers are also becoming a big issue, as he's thrown seven interceptions in the past two games.
Rivers will have his hands full with a Broncos defense that's come on incredibly strong over the course of this season. Denver's defense now ranks top 10 in points allowed, yards allowed, and yards allowed per play while rating as the league's second-best unit in red-zone percentage. That's problematic for a Chargers offense that ranks 26th at converting in the red zone.
Denver has also been improving on offense and should have no problem gashing the Chargers' run defense, which ranks 27th in DVOA. The Broncos are 8-1-1 ATS as underdogs of three or less since 2015, including 4-0-1 over the last three seasons. They're also 4-1 ATS and straight up in their last five games as underdogs against the Chargers.
Pick: Broncos +2.5, Broncos ML
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -3
This is by far the riskiest of the three picks, but it's also the one the data supports most. The Vikings simply rate better in just about every category.
The Seahawks have given up the sixth-most yards per game at home and the fifth-most yards per play. They've also allowed the third-most yards per game through the air at home. Seattle's defense can be had, and the Vikings are more than capable of taking them to the woodshed. It's just a question of whether good or bad Kirk Cousins will show up.
We've been seeing less and less of bad Cousins lately, though. He's thrown just one interception since Week 3. Over his last seven games, he's completed more than 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and an average of 289 yards through the air. If he can keep that up, the Vikings will get their ninth win of the season in Seattle.
The Seahawks likely got a small bump in these odds because of their impressive record in prime time and due to having one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. With all of that factored in, oddsmakers appear to believe Minnesota would be around -1 on a neutral field. However, the stats suggest a bigger gap between these teams, so there's a lot of value to be had thanks to public perception.
Pick: Vikings +3
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.