Top 5 betting plays for Week 16 of the NFL season
After offering some betting tips and making our picks for every NFL team total in Week 16, here are our five best plays for the weekend.
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts
Wager: New York Giants +9.5
The Indianapolis Colts might be the league's unofficial surprise team of the year after last week's convincing 23-0 rout of the Dallas Cowboys. One thing is certain: They're a public darling at 8-6 behind Comeback Player of the Year candidate Andrew Luck, first-year head coach Frank Reich, and an above-average defense most projected would be the team's Achilles heel prior to the season.
There's a stark contrast between the Colts and the New York Giants, Indy's opponent on Sunday. The Giants are 5-9 and coming off a 17-0 home loss to the Tennessee Titans. Despite the injuries scattered throughout New York's depth chart, Sunday's line feels a tad inflated for the home side.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Wager: Jaguars +3.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars' offense has looked awful over their last three games with backup quarterback Cody Kessler under center. After the Jaguars narrowly won 6-0 over the Colts in Kessler's first start, the Titans rolled them 30-9 in prime-time. Now, Jacksonville is coming off a home loss to the Josh Johnson-led Washington Redskins, a game in which Kessler was sacked six times while averaging 0.9 (!) yards per pass attempt.
Sunday's game should give the Jaguars a good shot to produce offensively, as they square off against a Miami Dolphins defense that's had trouble getting after the quarterback this season, ranking 31st in sacks with only 24. Jacksonville's defense hasn't showed up on the road since Week 1, but playing the numbers leads to the Jags getting a slight edge at this price.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys / Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Wager: Saints -0.5 / Cowboys -1 (6-point teaser)
We'll play on the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints in a six-point teaser against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively.
There's nowhere to go but up for the Cowboys, who were shut out last week at Indianapolis. Sunday feels like a nice spot at home against a Buccaneers defense playing back-to-back road games, and Dallas has the opportunity to clinch the NFC East.
The Saints are coming off three straight road games, a stretch when the league's No. 2 scoring offense recorded just 51 points. However, New Orleans is back at home where the team is averaging 38 points per game, and Drew Brees has a chance to get back into the MVP race. The Saints are also on our radar against a Steelers team that could be in for a let down following a home win over the New England Patriots.
Extra Points
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles
Recommended Pick: Over 46
The Houston Texans come into Week 16 with one of the better defenses in the league, allowing just 20.1 points per game. Then again, their competition this season hasn't been all that stiff.
The Texans will get another favorable spot on Sunday against Philadelphia Eagles backup quarterback Nick Foles, who orchestrated a 30-point effort on the road last weekend against the Rams to keep the Eagles' playoff hopes alive. Foles brings some volatility, but claiming he has a higher ceiling than Carson Wentz on a weekly basis isn't crazy, especially when his leash is longer and he's taking shots downfield.
Opposite Foles will be Deshaun Watson, who has the Texans' offense clicking, as the unit has scored 29-plus points in three of Houston's previous four games. With two secondaries that can be exposed, we like the over in this one.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Recommended Pick: Over 44
Defense could be optional on Sunday when two teams that won't make the playoffs meet for an NFC South battle.
The biggest factor comes under center for the Panthers, who are giving the quarterback reins to backup Taylor Heinicke as Cam Newton sits due to a shoulder injury. Carolina's offense can still thrive on the ground against an Atlanta Falcons defense that's ranked 31st in rushing yards allowed per game. And since the Panthers are coming off a loss to the Saints in prime-time that crushed their playoff hopes, we don't think there will be much incentive to stop the Falcons' passing attack.
Top plays: 26-16-2 (61.9 percent)
Overall record: 41-31-1 (56.9 percent)
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.