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Week 7 team totals betting analysis

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Here's a look at the team totals for all 28 teams playing in Week 7, along with my picks and confidence level:

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Broncos' team total: 20.5 points

The Broncos held both the Chiefs and Rams to their lowest point totals this season - 27 and 23, respectively - but couldn't eke out wins in either game. That's not fully on Case Keenum, who played from behind and threw the ball 40-plus times in each contest. Against the Cardinals, though, Denver should be able to run the ball against the league's worst rushing defense to open up play action for its receivers.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Cardinals' team total: 20.5 points

Arizona's 4.7 adjusted yards per play with Josh Rosen leading the offense is second worst in the entire league. Only the Buffalo Bills - by a full yard - have been more painful on the eyes offensively this season. Denver's rush defense is barely better than the Cardinals', ranking 31st in the NFL. If there's any time for Rosen to have his breakout game, it's against a shoddy Broncos defense on a short week.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (in London)

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Titans' team total: 18.5 points

I'll admit, I thought Tennessee's offense could potentially be this season's most improved unit. Following a game in which Marcus Mariota totaled more sacks (11) than completions (10), that prediction isn't looking great. Then again, Tennessee's 30th-ranked scoring offense has had some tough draws at Buffalo and against the Jaguars and Ravens. I'd recommend a buy-low here in a big way.

Pick: Over (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Chargers' team total: 26.5 points

The Chargers' offense has been humming under sleeper MVP candidate Philip Rivers, scoring 26 or more points per game in five of their six games this season. Tennessee's defense has been stout but hasn't yet faced an offense of LA's caliber. I think Wembley Stadium is in for a good ole fashioned shootout.

Pick: Over (-126.5)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

Bills' team total: 16.5 points

Derek Anderson? Derek Anderson?! I'm not exactly sure what's going on inside the brains of the Bills' brass, but to start a 35-year-old signed off the streets a mere 11 days ago speaks volumes about Buffalo's roster management. Could the offense be worse than the 3.7 yards per play registered with Josh Allen under center this season? Honestly, it could. I'd recommend paying to let Anderson beat you.

Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Colts' team total: 26.5 points

I'm not as high on the Colts' offense as others might be. Indianapolis has registered some skewed scores due to either garbage time points or being gifted short fields. Buffalo's defense has been impressive this season, holding opponents to 4.4 yards per play, tops in the league.

Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

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Panthers' team total: 19.5 points

Philadelphia's defense is ... kind of bad? The Eagles handcuffed Eli Manning and the New York Giants in prime time last weekend, but that isn't saying much. The Eagles are actually No. 30 in the NFL in adjusted yards per play allowed, and the Panthers' skill corps is fully healthy. I've watched a ton of Carolina this season and it appears the offense finally has it figured out.

Pick: Over (-138)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Eagles' team total: 25.5 points

Philadelphia's offense is coming around under Carson Wentz, who's settling in nicely as the season progresses. Carolina's defense is essentially in the middle of the pack in basic statistical categories. There isn't much of an edge here, but I do lean in one direction.

Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Browns' team total: 22.5 points

Rashard Higgins' injury and Josh Gordon's departure have put the Cleveland Browns' offense in a bind. It was evident in last week's loss to the Chargers, in which eight of the Browns' 14 points came in mop-up duty. However, I'd trust Baker Mayfield to rebound against the league's worst defense.

Pick: Over (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Buccaneers' team total: 27.5 points

The Buccaneers' offense is fun. However, the league's No. 1 passing attack has feasted on so-so defenses while looking average against good ones. I'd slot the Browns in the latter category.

Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

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Lions' team total: 24.5 points

I don't see how Matthew Stafford doesn't pick apart Miami's secondary after watching Mitchell Trubisky unload on the Dolphins in the second half of Week 7. Road teams off a bye have been extremely profitable in the past and there could be plenty of possessions if Brock Osweiler can't get it going for the Dolphins (more on that in five seconds).

Pick: Over (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Dolphins' team total: 20.5 points

Osweiler won't throw for 380 yards and three touchdowns against one of the better pass defenses on extra rest. Brocktober will have a shorter shelf life than the Mannequin Challenge.

Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Texans' team total: 17.5 points

Houston's scoring numbers have belied how easy the Texans have moved the ball; it's the red zone that's been Houston's death knell in 2018. But not only do you need points, you need the Texans to keep moving the ball down the field. Deshaun Watson should be in for a rude awakening Sunday, playing behind a line that should get manhandled by the Jags' front seven.

Pick: Under (-138)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Jaguars' team total: 23.5 points

Jacksonville's offense is all out of sorts. Over the last two weeks, I've watched Blake Bortles throw a red-zone pick that ricocheted off a teammate's helmet, and wide receiver Dede Westbrook let a pass clank off his face mask for a drop.

However, I don't think the Jaguars will need a ton in Week 8 to get by the Texans.

Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets

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Vikings' team total: 24.5 points

Minnesota's running a one-dimensional offense, but I don't necessarily think it's the wrong move, as its pass offense is capitalizing with Kirk Cousins under center. However, the weather Sunday could impact the team's strength, as forecasts are calling for 16 MPH winds. Clear conditions against a banged-up secondary would be an easy call for the over, but Mother Nature once again throws a wrench in the plans.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐

Jets' team total: 20.5 points

The Jets' offense is almost the exact opposite of Minnesota's, as New York ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing but only 27th in passing. I was on the fence regarding the Vikings' defense, figuring they'd been dealt a tough draw against some better offenses earlier in the year. However, heading into Week 8, they're still below the league average in yards per play allowed. I'm not sure this is an "elite" unit, or even a great one.

Pick: Over (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Patriots' team total: 25.5 points

New England's offense will be tested during Week 7. Tom Brady and the Pats have bullied below-average defenses, hanging 38 on both Miami and Indianapolis while scoring 43 against Kansas City. On the flip side, they scored 10 points at Detroit while most of their 21 points scored in Jacksonville came in garbage time. Chicago's defense ranks in the top five in adjusted yards per play allowed, and I expect a better effort from that unit after last week's loss to the Dolphins.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Bears' team total: 23.5 points

After a slow start, Chicago's offense has also excelled against below-average defenses, registering multiple explosive plays against Miami and the worst defense in the league (Tampa Bay) in its last two games. However, I don't think the surge is here to stay.

Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

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Saints' team total: 23.5 points

Drew Brees in an outdoor setting against the league's top defense will be the toughest challenge he'll have faced so far this season. The Ravens will also be tested by a potent Saints offense, but I'm giving the edge to the home side.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Ravens' team total: 26.5 points

A meh offense against a meh defense? Elite Flacco to the rescue.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Cowboys' team total: 19.5 points

You had to figure Dallas' offense would bounce closer to the mean after averaging a shade under two touchdowns per game in the first three weeks. But I still don't think the Cowboys are creative enough or have the necessary skill players to consistently put up points - especially on the road, where they're averaging 12.3 per game.

Pick: Under (+100)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Redskins' team total: 21.5 points

I'm falling in love with Dallas' defense. The Cowboys boast a top-five unit in adjusted yards per play and there's nothing on Washington's offense that would shy me away from expecting another solid performance.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

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Rams' team total: 31.5 points

There isn't a reason to fade Los Angeles' offense after last week's 23-point performance against the Broncos. In fact, I'd expect a bounce-back game. The Rams played in cold conditions at high altitude during a win in Denver and now get to play a defense coming off a short week and a long trip back home.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

49ers' team total: 20.5 points

C.J. Beathard and the Niners had their shot last weekend. The Rams' defense has plenty of holes, but Beathard is a check-down savant.

Pick: Under (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Bengals' team total: 25.5 points

Cincinnati's offense is finally doing things. I've been yearning for this type of production for years. The spread is still up for grabs in this one, but Andy Dalton and the improved unit should have plenty of chances against a defense that can't stop anyone.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Chiefs' team total: 33.5 points

I've faded the Chiefs three times this season and their offense has made me pay every time with easy covers. If you can't make a case for Kansas City slowing down - I don't think there is - then don't doubt this Patrick Mahomes-led offense.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

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Giants' team total: 23.5 points

New York is undoubtedly my favorite team to buy and sell on a weekly basis. It's essentially a zig-zag method that's produced wins aplenty over the last year-plus. Any time the Giants' offense is berated in the media, it somehow returns the following week to hang 27 (likely in a loss). After all the criticism the Giants received on the heels of a blowout to Philly, they're going to make plays against one of the NFL's worst defenses.

Pick: Over (+100)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Falcons' team total: 30.5 points

The Falcons' point totals at home: 31, 34, 36, and 37. It's all offense and no defense for Atlanta this season.

Pick: Over (-125)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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