"Winning" free agency is often viewed as a bad thing for NFL teams.
That's because cap-rich franchises that have opened their checkbooks to sign multiple big-name free agents have rarely translated that offseason "success" into a successful subsequent campaign.
However, the Jacksonville Jaguars bucked that trend last year by finally putting their talented (but young and inconsistent) roster over the top by signing top-tier veterans Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye to big-time deals.
So, with free agency set to officially begin March 14, let's examine five cap-rich teams that could dominate the market this time around.
Indianapolis Colts
Cap space: $77.26 million
Biggest needs: DE, ILB, OL, RB
Potential big-money targets: G Andrew Norwell, CB Rashaan Melvin, LB Anthony Hitchens, RB Rex Burkhead
The Colts' offseason got off to the worst possible start as Josh McDaniels snubbed them in dramatic and embarrassing fashion. Indy bounced back admirably, snagging Frank Reich as its new head coach, but general manager Chris Ballard could use a few free-agent home runs to help remove the bad taste from the fan base's mouth.
Assuming Andrew Luck is back healthy for the start of 2018, everyone would feel better about him staying upright if Carolina Panthers guard Andrew Norwell - one of the league's top pass-protecting guards - joined the unit. Norwell will likely need a record-setting contract, and Ballard was frugal in his first offseason, but Indy needs elite talent to reverse its downward spiral.
Rashaan Melvin was one of the few bright spots on defense for the Colts in 2017 and should be more affordable than other big-name cornerbacks to re-sign. Meanwhile, adding Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens to fix the problems in the middle of the defense makes perfect sense for Indy given its hiring of former Dallas assistant Matt Eberflus as defensive coordinator.
Finally, Indy needs to get younger and more dynamic at running back after years of admirable (but declining) play from Frank Gore, an impending free agent himself. The draft is full of options, but if the Colts want to grab a veteran to pair with 2017 rookie Marlon Mack, the likes of Rex Burkhead and Carlos Hyde could be intriguing options.
New York Jets
Cap space: $73.2 million
Biggest needs: QB, OLB, RB, DE, CB
Potential big-money targets: QB Kirk Cousins, DE Ezekiel Ansah, RB Carlos Hyde, CB Bashaud Breeland, RB Dion Lewis
Oh boy, the Jets could be gearing up to shake the league to its core, as New York's reportedly willing to pay "whatever it takes" to sign top free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Whether that means blowing the roof off the annual average salary for a quarterback or a deal with huge guarantees, the Jets have the room to make Cousins an offer that might make him look past the team's deficiencies - in the front office and on the field. New York could also decide to re-sign Josh McCown after a strong 2017 and use the sixth overall pick on a quarterback if Cousins isn't persuaded by dollar signs, as he's said he won't be.
Even if they sign Cousins, the Jets have the space to target a few other top free agents to really announce the start of a new era, including on defense. If New York parts ways with Muhammad Wilkerson, it still has talent on the defensive line, but the team lacks a game-changing edge player, so Detroit Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah could be a target, as could smaller names like Adrian Clayborn of the Atlanta Falcons.
On offense, the Jets must prioritize finding a featured back - especially if they draft a quarterback early. Hyde is the only "name" with a proven record of carrying an entire workload, though stealing Dion Lewis from the hated New England Patriots and pairing him with Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire would also have its appeal.
Houston Texans
Cap space: $56.64 million
Biggest needs: OL, CB, RB, S
Potential big-money targets: CB Malcolm Butler, G Andrew Norwell, OT Nate Solder, RB Carlos Hyde
Bill O'Brien finally has his man under center, and you can bet the head coach will push for the Texans to recruit blue-chip talents to elevate them into the contender category they've teased joining for years.
Deshaun Watson is recovering from an ACL tear that ended his brilliant rookie season, but 19 touchdowns in just six starts (seven appearances) is one hell of a bargaining tool for free agents, especially offensive players.
Watson proved he can be the centerpiece of the offense, but he's still a young quarterback, and therefore needs a more reliable running game and protection in the pocket. Norwell would be the dream, but the Texans may choose to divide the money into multiple offensive line additions, as the unit needs help all over.
While Watson can light up defenses, it won't matter much if Houston can't stop opposing passing attacks. So, with longtime cornerback Johnathan Joseph set to be a free agent, O'Brien would be smart to follow the advice of DeAndre Hopkins by adding Super Bowl benchwarmer Malcolm Butler.
San Francisco 49ers
Cap space: $74.5 million
Biggest needs:
Potential big-money targets: WR Allen Robinson, WR Sammy Watkins, G Andrew Norwell, DE Ezekiel Ansah, CB Trumaine Johnson
San Francisco could be the destination for big-name free agents this offseason. The 49ers have the allure of the recently signed Jimmy Garoppolo, offensive wizard Kyle Shanahan, and a five-game winning streak to end last season. Our guess is a lot of available players will buy what John Lynch and Co. are selling.
Even after inking Garoppolo to an NFL-record contract worth a reported $27 million per season, the 49ers still have more than enough cash to surround their franchise player with better talent and potentially send the hype surrounding the team into overdrive.
If the 49ers want to go big, Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson and pass-rusher Ansah could be natural fits, assuming they avoid the fun-sapping franchise tag. They both carry significant health concerns, however, so San Francisco could opt to acquire quantity over top-tier quality in free agency, knowing it also has the draft capital to jump around and add some elite, young talent to grow with Garoppolo.
Cornerback is a position where the 49ers desperately need some veteran talent, though, so they will likely be players for Trumaine Johnson, who's still in line for a big payday despite failing to convince the Los Angeles Rams he's worth more than back-to-back franchise tags.
Cleveland Browns
Cap space: $110.11 million
Biggest needs: QB, RB, CB, OLB, OT
Potential big-money targets: QB Kirk Cousins, QB AJ McCarron, CB Trumaine Johnson, CB Malcolm Butler, RB Dion Lewis, WR Jarvis Landry
Another year, and another offseason with a potentially franchise-changing level of resources for the Browns to use. Cleveland owns the first and fourth overall picks in the draft, along with a host of other high selections, but first, they have to find players to spend their abundance of cap space on.
Cousins is the first name that comes to mine. The Browns have had major issues under center for the past few seasons (and for a few decades before that, too) and faced criticism for passing on both Carson Wentz and Watson in recent years. But, while Cleveland could offer Cousins more money than any player in NFL history - and more than any other team is capable of - it's hard to see him trading the dysfunction of the Redskins for the ineptitude of the Browns. However, perhaps the presence of new (and respected) general manager John Dorsey could help change that perception.
Alternatively, with his connection to head coach Hue Jackson, AJ McCarron could be a cheaper stopgap alternative if the Browns want to draft a quarterback early and groom him, though the Chicago Bears' overpay of Mike Glennon might give them pause.
Beyond quarterback, the 0-16 Browns obviously need help all over their roster. Thinking of life past Joe Thomas is painful, but the future Hall of Famer won't last forever. The offensive tackle pool is weak as always in free agency, though, so Cleveland could wait until the draft and splurge on a cornerback or a receiver instead. Johnson, Butler, and Jarvis Landry would all be upgrades, and each of their potentially excessive price tags would only be a drop in the ocean for the cap-rich Browns.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
(Cap numbers courtesy: Over The Cap)
