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The NFL’s silly season is nearly behind us with one more day of preseason snaps to go. We’ll be just six days away from the kickoff of the 2017 campaign after Thursday’s action.
There are things bettors can learn from the games in August and there are definitely things that need to be ignored. Here’s a look at four things we saw in the preseason.
Cleveland Browns winning games
The Browns are 3-0 straight up and against the spread and join the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks as the only perfect teams in the preseason. The Browns are still the biggest longshot to win the Super Bowl at 125/1 and for good reason.
Rookie DeShone Kizer is the club’s Week 1 starter under center making him the ninth different Week 1 starting quarterback in the last 10 years in Cleveland. Kizer isn’t going to jump start an offense that finished second last in the league in points scored a season ago.
Getting three wins in the preseason is easy to do when there’s a coaching staff thirsty for Ws it knows won’t be coming when the real games start.
The Browns open the regular season as 9-point home pups against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
New England Patriots’ defense is still good
The Pats are allowing an average of 28.7 points per game in the preseason, good for the second highest mark in the league. Don’t see this as a sign New England’s defense will take a step back this season.
The defending champs finished in the league’s top 10 in defensive yards allowed in each of the last two seasons and last year they finished first in points allowed at just 15.6 per game.
Bill Belichick may confuse a GIF with his favorite peanut butter brand, but when it comes to defensive schemes, he’s still on top of his game.
Andrew Luck’s health isn't as hunky dory as the Colts would have you believe
The Indianapolis Colts still haven’t ruled Andrew Luck out for their Week 1 game, even though he’s still on the PUP list because of offseason surgery on his shoulder. Head coach Chuck Pagano won’t even say who will start at quarterback in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams if Luck is still on the injured reserve list.
This is a big deal. The Colts are an average team with Luck in the lineup. They would be one of the league’s worst teams if he missed a significant portion of the regular season.
The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened with the Colts as 3.5-point favorites Week 1 against the Rams but the book has flipped its stance and now has Los Angeles as 2.5-point favorites.
Most books have this line off the board but if you can find Rams getting points at your book, it’d be a good idea to snap up that price.
New Orleans defense isn’t this good
After three preseason games, the under is 3-0 and the Saints have allowed the second fewest points in the league. The Saints have finished 23rd or worse in defensive yards allowed per game in eight of the 11 years since Sean Payton became the head coach in the Big Easy in 2006.
The Saints dedicated much of their 2017 draft to reinvigorating their defense by picking up two defensive backs, a linebacker, and a defensive end all in the first three rounds. That’s not enough for us to believe New Orleans’ preseason defensive performance is the real deal.
Payton is talking about running the ball more this season and keeping his defense off the field. That hasn’t been his method of operation, though, as a head coach and play caller. The over is 96-78-2 in the Saints regular-season games with Payton calling the shots on the sidelines.
