NFL Week 10 player props: A closer look at quarterbacks

We got back to our winning ways last week with a 7-3 effort, moving to 55-37-1 at the halfway point of the season. But let's not waste any time patting ourselves on the back; here, we're looking for value in this week's markets.

Matt Ryan under 289.5 passing yards

The Cowboys' defensive coordinator is pretty familiar with Matt Ryan. After all, he was his head coach for six years. Dan Quinn should have a plan to limit the Falcons through the air, and they already do a pretty good job of limiting themselves on the ground. The one concern for this bet is Ryan having to throw the ball 40-plus times due to a negative game script. But this is a get-right matchup for the Cowboys, and that starts with their defense.

Mike Evans touchdown (-105)

This comes down to a lack of options for Tom Brady. With Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski still out, and Chris Godwin likely sidelined, Evans is the last reliable red-zone option. Plus, there's no one on Washington that matches his physicality.

Najee Harris over 27.5 receiving yards

We could have some weather issues in Pittsburgh, which isn't ideal for either quarterback. But with Harris searching for holes that aren't being created by the Steelers' offensive line, and with star receiver Chase Claypool out, Ben Roethlisberger will look to get Harris involved in the short passing game. Additionally, the Lions are giving up more than nine yards per catch to running backs.

Mac Jones under 36.5 yards longest pass completion

Lost in the hand-wringing about the Browns missing Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton is that Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are questionable for the Patriots as well. I'm not looking to rely on either of them to run on the Browns, which means Mac Jones will have to throw more than the Patriots would like. Against Cleveland, high volume equates to quick passes with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney coming off the edge. Jones won't have time to take any deep shots.

Adrian Peterson under 33.5 rushing yards

The Titans have been congratulated all week on yet another nice win, but there's concern going forward. Adrian Peterson's 29 yards on 10 carries didn't show shades of Derrick Henry, and now the Titans will try to get some semblance of a running game against the Saints' defensive line. Tennessee should split the carries more evenly between Jeremy McNichols, D'onta Foreman, and the veteran Peterson. Even if the team doesn't, 34 yards for Peterson is unlikely.

Josh Allen over 24.5 pass completions

There should be no mercy at MetLife Stadium this Sunday, as the Bills need to get back on track offensively after a pair of shoddy performances that culminated in a horrific loss to the Jaguars. Now they get to face the Jets' defensive secondary, which just lost Marcus Maye for the season. Not a household name, his absence as the best of New York's defensive backs tells you all you need to know about the quality of that group. There's little reason for Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to not have Allen throw it over and over, especially if Mike White can keep this game within shouting distance.

Kirk Cousins over 267.5 passing yards

The Vikings-Chargers game is setting up to be a shootout, with neither team having much of a chance to stop the other. So, we'll look to the shorter passing yards number here with Cousins, who'll have both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen matched up against a series of second-string defensive backs. Plus, with Joey Bosa potentially less than 100% on Sunday, Cousins may have all the time in the world to hit this number.

Christian McCaffrey over 39.5 receiving yards

In 20 years of betting on sports, I've learned not to use words like "lock" or "stealing," but someone will have to explain to me why this number is so short. P.J. Walker will be looking to rely on McCaffrey, and the touch numbers should go up after the Panthers' most electric weapon returned unscathed last week.

Jerry Jeudy over 61.5 receiving yards

We cashed last week with Jeudy, and while the market has made an adjustment upward, we'll take another swing with the Broncos receiver in another plus matchup versus the Eagles' secondary. Denver has dual injuries to its starting offensive tackles, so the ball will be coming out of Teddy Bridgewater's gloved hands quickly to Jeudy in the slot.

Patrick Mahomes over 285.5 passing yards

We've reached a point in existence where Mahomes' passing yards total is lined lower than Derek Carr's. That's where the market is on the Chiefs. Whether or not Kansas City's turnaround starts Sunday night, Mahomes will either take advantage of a thin Raiders secondary with deep completions, or a back-and-forth shootout will force him into 40-plus pass attempts on his way to a 300-yard game.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.