Friday, Jan. 1 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
Two teams that not many thought had a chance to meet in the Sugar Bowl at the beginning of the season will do just that.
Oklahoma State, the surprise team of the Big 12, began the season 10-0, and looked prime to make a run at a College Football Playoff spot. However, the Cowboys nearly fell off the proverbial cliff at the end of the season, and are still in search of their 11th victory.
Ole Miss was one of the hardest teams to figure out in college football this year. The Rebels started 4-0, which included a road win over Alabama, and added victories over LSU and Mississippi State to their resume before it was all said and done, but shot themselves in the foot with losses to Florida, Memphis, and Arkansas.
The striking similarities between these two teams make this season's installment of the Sugar Bowl particularly intriguing. Both teams have explosive passing attacks and feature an elite quarterback-receiver tandem. Both teams also have shaky defenses, especially in the secondary, which means this matchup promises to be a high-scoring affair.
HOW THEY STACK UP
Oklahoma State
Record: 10-2
College Football Playoff ranking: No. 16
Points per game: 41.2 (9th)
Points against per game: 29 (85th)
Total Offense: 489.5 yards per game (19th)
Passing Yards: 357.3 (7th)
Rushing Yards: 132.2 (108th)
Total Defense: 429.5 (95th)
Passing Yards Allowed: 244.3 (91st)
Rushing Yards Allowed: 185.3 (84th)
Turnover Differential: +13 (T-5th)
Ole Miss
Record: 9-3
College Football Playoff ranking: No. 12
Points per game: 40.3 (13th)
Points against per game: 22.8 (T-34th)
Total Offense: 514.8 yards per game (11th)
Passing Yards: 333.7 (10th)
Rushing Yards: 181.1 (52nd)
Total Defense: 387.5 (56th)
Passing Yards Allowed: 255.1 (98th)
Rushing Yards Allowed: 132.4 (27th)
Turnover Differential: 0 (T-67th)
WHY OKLAHOMA STATE COULD WIN: Mike Gundy's team lost its last two games of the regular season, though both defeats came against teams ranked in the top 10 at the time. The Cowboys boast one of the highest scoring offenses in the country, and love to spread opposing defenses out. That doesn't bode well for an Ole Miss unit that is weak on the back end, and struggles to get consistent pressure on the quarterback. If the Rebels can't get to Mason Rudolph, the Pokes pivot should have no problem establishing a flow early, and that's pivotal for Gundy's rhythm-based offense.
WHY OLE MISS COULD WIN: On paper, Ole Miss has more star power than its counterpart. Robert Nkemdiche has the potential to be a disruptive force along the defensive line, though he'll miss the game due to a suspension. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil has the agility and footwork to keep Cowboys sack-master Emmanuel Ogbah relatively quiet and is expected to be a top pick in the NFL draft. Chad Kelly has developed into a very good quarterback while playing in a conference that boasts some pretty powerful defenses, including the one he beat in Alabama in Week 3. Imagine what he and Laquon Treadwell could be able to accomplish against Oklahoma State's subpar pass defense.
IMPACT PLAYER TO WATCH: LAQUON TREADWELL, WR, OLE MISS
If the Sugar Bowl is the last game Treadwell ever plays for Ole Miss, as is expected to be the case, the Rebels star will surely be motivated to go out with a bang. Treadwell has caught at least four passes in every game this season, and caught a touchdown in six of Ole Miss' last seven matches down the stretch. In a contest that promises to feature lots of offense, Treadwell should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of a porous Oklahoma State secondary that has yielded an average of 43.2 points over its last five games.