Texas, Penn State playoff odds crumble after disastrous starts

Before the seasons changed and the weather cooled, Texas and Penn State were on top of the college football world as the No. 1- and No. 2-ranked teams, respectively. That honeymoon period ended when the squads actually had to play the games.

Texas and Penn State held respective preseason odds of +550 and +650 to win the national championship on ESPN BET and theScore Bet, tied for the best and second-best odds in the country. Winning the 12-team playoff would require everything to go right, and it was never going to be easy. But the Longhorns and Nittany Lions making the playoff was considered a foregone conclusion.

Penn State entered the year at -350 (77% implied probability) to make the College Football Playoff, while Texas was -310 (75% implied probability). Penn State is now +600 to make the postseason and -1200 to miss it, meaning there's a 92% chance the Nittany Lions are left out. Texas is +230 to make the playoff and -320 to miss it.

Despite the slow start, the Longhorns are tied for the sixth-best odds to win the national title at +1800, while the Nittany Lions are further down at +4000, tied for the 14th-best odds. Penn State and Texas have garnered the second- and third-most bets to win the national championship on ESPN BET and theScore Bet since the start of the season, trailing only Ohio State.

National title odds

👉 Check out the full national title odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Penn State has already hit the under on its 10.5 win total. Over 80% of the bets and money wagered were on the over. Bettors may soon rip up their tickets that have Penn State reaching the playoff as well, with 98% of money wagered and 90% of bets picking the team to qualify. The Nittany Lions have received more money wagered to make the playoff than any other school since the start of the season.

As for the Longhorns, bettors have largely doubted Arch Manning in his first season as a full-time starter. They've received the most bets to miss the playoff since the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Manning and Penn State quarterback Drew Allar are at the center of the teams' woes. Both were projected first-rounders six weeks ago - Manning was the top pick in ESPN's August mock draft - and have now played themselves out of the first round.

As both teams sit 3-2, the Longhorns' and Nittany Lions' championship hopes are likely over. Their daunting schedules, combined with the fact that they don't have the talent everyone anticipated, have left two of the largest fan bases in the country increasingly irate.

Penn State must run the table to capture a playoff spot, but that's unlikely to happen with two top-10 teams still on its schedule: a road matchup against Ohio State and a home showdown with Indiana.

Texas also must win out to earn a seat in the playoff. However, with three top-10 opponents - Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas A&M - left to face, the Longhorns will almost certainly be on the outside looking in, especially if Manning continues to play like he doesn't belong in the SEC.

Roster turnover in the current college football climate has made it challenging to predict the top teams entering the season. It's usually assumed the top programs with endless resources will emerge as title contenders. But without the right quarterback, everything can go south quickly in the Big Ten and SEC. Texas and Penn State are learning that the hard way.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more coverage.

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