CFB Week 1 picks: All eyes on Texas-Ohio State in massive opening slate
The college football offseason is long. It's even longer when it's spent bickering over playoff expansion, conference realignment, court rulings, the transfer portal, NIL problems, and all the other ailments that currently plague college athletics.
Then Labor Day weekend rolls around and all those issues fade into the background as the pageantry, passion, and high stakes that make college football great return to center stage.
It's hard to find a more appealing Week 1 slate than this one that features three ranked matchups, including one between two of the top three teams in the AP Poll. Every week, we'll discuss and provide picks for the marquee games and touch on other bets to round out the card.
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Game time: 12 p.m. ET
π Pick: Texas (+1.5)
Opening Week 1 with a showdown between the two national title favorites is a blessing for every college football fan, although this game doesn't have the same stakes in a 12-team playoff system that it would have had two years ago with a four-team playoff. While both teams should still qualify for the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome, the loser will face more pressure as the season continues.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Texas quarterback Arch Manning have little experience in these environments. The edge there should go to Manning, who has dealt with scrutiny and high expectations his entire football life due to his last name. But finding a true edge is a challenge with two ultra-talented, evenly matched teams that haven't played a game since experiencing plenty of roster turnover.
In the coaching booths, Texas has the advantage. Matt Patricia, whom Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian coached against in the NFL, replaced Jim Knowles as Buckeyes defensive coordinator, and Brian Hartline replaced Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator. Sarkisian remains Texas' play-caller, and both Longhorns coordinators returned. Coaching staff continuity could be the deciding factor in a coin-flip contest between opponents who might meet again in January.
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
π Pick: Alabama (-13.5)
Florida State won't be as bad as its disastrous two-win season last year, but overhauling the roster through the transfer portal doesn't guarantee success. Most of the Seminoles' offensive starters are transfers, including former Boston College quarterback Tommy Castellanos.
Meanwhile, Alabama returns many of its premier pass-rushers and offensive linemen, a few of whom will go on to be drafted in the early rounds. Even with quarterback Ty Simpson making his first career start on the road, the Crimson Tide's offensive and defensive lines will overpower Florida State. Quarterback play won't decide the game. It'll be obvious for 60 minutes which team has roster continuity and which team is rebuilding.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: LSU (+4)
LSU has lost five consecutive openers and is an underdog on the road against Clemson. If not now for LSU, when? Garrett Nussmeier is one of the nation's best quarterbacks and is featured in a pass-heavy offense. Clemson's secondary will have a difficult time matching up against LSU's stud playmakers.
Although Clemson signal-caller Cade Klubnik is also a Heisman candidate, the positional matchup that will decide this contest is LSU's questionable offensive line against Clemson's daunting defensive line. Only one starter from LSU's offensive line returned. The program reloaded through the transfer portal, which creates uncertainty. If LSU can protect Nussmeier, Brian Kelly's team can win on the road. I expect LSU's offense to keep up with Clemson's and keep the game within a field goal.
Game time: Sunday, 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: Miami (+2.5)
The last three national-title losers who played a power conference school in their opener the following season went 0-2-1 against the spread. The inaugural 12-team playoff created the longest college football season ever. Although Notre Dame did experience some roster turnover, the team could still get off to a slow start after playing in the national championship - especially considering the Fighting Irish are notorious for getting better as the season goes on under Marcus Freeman.
I don't trust Miami throughout an entire season, but Carson Beck has experience in big games and will be prepared for a difficult Week 1 opponent, especially at home. He should have a reliable running game and a solid receiving corps around him. The Canes improved on their putrid passing defense last season after adding transfers and freshmen. Notre Dame, on the other hand, is starting true freshman quarterback CJ Carr. He's never played a collegiate snap and has to go on the road to open the season against a top-10 team. I wouldn't count on him to pass that test.
π Check out all college football Week 1 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Game time: 12:45 p.m.
π Pick: Toledo (+9)
Toledo already has a dynamic passing game, and now it's added running back Chip Trayanum to bring versatility to an offense that relied too heavily on throwing the ball last season.
Kentucky is poised for another disappointing finish in the SEC with a weak offensive line and seventh-year quarterback Zach Calzada, who brings experience but limited talent. Toledo upset another weak SEC team last year when it beat Mississippi State. This opener is also a lookahead spot for Kentucky with a matchup against Ole Miss looming in Week 2. The Wildcats are on outright upset alert.
Game time: Sunday, 3 p.m.
π Pick: Virginia Tech (+8)
The hype surrounding South Carolina, particularly Heisman-contending quarterback LaNorris Sellers, has overinflated its opening line on a neutral field. As brilliant as Sellers was down the stretch last season, the Gamecocks' ferocious defensive line was their biggest strength. Many of their top defenders are now in the NFL, however, leaving massive holes.
Virginia Tech fans expected better than the team's 6-7 record last year. Kyron Drones is back at quarterback, but nearly the entire offense features new faces. The Hokies had a productive portal period and should showcase a high-octane offense. Against a questionable defense, Virginia Tech will score enough to keep this one within a touchdown.
Game time: 3:30 p.m.
π Pick: Penn State (-44)
As awful as James Franklin's track record is in big games as an underdog, it's just as good as a huge favorite against inferior competition. Franklin is 78-44-5 (61%) against the spread against unranked teams. Furthermore, he's 26-8-1 against the spread in his last 35 games when favored by at least a touchdown.
Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Penn State covered the spread in six of its last seven openers. This is the Nittany Lions' best chance to win a national title under Franklin with a loaded roster and an experienced quarterback. Expect them to make a statement in the opener against Nevada.
Game time: 11 p.m.
π Pick: UCLA +6.5
UCLA started last season 1-5 and then went 4-2 as first-year head coach DeShaun Foster's culture began to take shape. Foster brought in depth at key positions, but his biggest portal addition is quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who became the top transfer on the market after his NIL dispute with Tennessee. Questions surrounding Iamaleava persist, but he's a dual threat who clearly improved throughout last season.
As for Utah, the team returns many key pieces to a group that went 5-7 for its first losing season since 2013. The Utes' big addition is quarterback Devon Dampier from New Mexico. Dampier is a running threat, but he threw as many interceptions as touchdowns. The Bruins' defense must contain his rushing ability and force him to throw. For all of Dampier's success at New Mexico, he was 0-2 and struggled in both losses against power conference programs last season.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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