There were seven bowl games on Saturday, and the NFL's omnipresence is destined to drive half your family crazy during dinners and the opening of presents. On the day after Christmas - like around the tree that's been in your home for weeks - we have scraps and bowl game leftovers to bet as we pick up the pieces from a wild weekend.
Quick Lane Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota (-3.5, 39.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| Minnesota -7 | Minnesota -5.5 |
Cole Kramer's never started a game, but Minnesota talked him into being QB1 for the Quick Lane Bowl. That sounds like trouble, but the senior is getting one shot at glory, and all he has to do is match the production of Athan Kaliakmanis, who's transferring out.
Kaliakmanis completed 53% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt. Only three quarterbacks with 200-plus attempts had a worse completion percentage and YPA this season. As strange as it sounds, if Kramer - with three weeks of practice - can play to Kaliakmanis' level, Minnesota should be able to win by a touchdown. That projection already accounts for a season-long upgrade of Bowling Green's market rating and a downgrade of Minnesota during a disappointing season as P.J. Fleck's boat is taking on water and is in need of something to celebrate.
Pick: Minnesota (-3.5)
First Responder Bowl
Rice vs. Texas State (-4.5, 59.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| Texas State PK | Texas State -6.5 |
JT Daniels has retired (for medical reasons), which explains this line opening with Texas State as a 6.5-point favorite. The market thought that was a bit of an overreaction, considering freshman AJ Padgett started the final three games of the regular season, and Rice outperformed their market rating in wins over Charlotte and Florida Atlantic to close the season.
If this line isn't solely a downgrade of the Owls, then maybe there's some upgrading of the Bobcats afoot. However, a 4-4 league record in the Sun Belt is getting less impressive by the bowl game, as the Sun Belt is now 2-8 against the spread this postseason. Texas State closed the season by giving up 152 points in three games, exhibiting the type of defense that makes it difficult to cover a spread as a favorite.
Pick: Rice (+4.5)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
UNLV vs. Kansas (-13, 66.5)
| PROJECTION | OPENING LINE |
|---|---|
| Kansas -7.5 | Kansas -12.5 |
UNLV had arguably the most positive surprising season of any team in college football, but reality hit in the Mountain West championship game when the Rebels were blown out by Boise State, a result appearing to have knocked their market rating back to where it was before the season. Even that would put this line at just over -10.
During his time as Missouri head coach, Barry Odom and his staff made Drew Lock a second-round pick before high expectations - thanks, in part, to the addition of over-hyped Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant - weren't met. On his next stop, Odom had the wherewithal to hire Brennan Marion to run his offense, and he gets another three weeks of work with freshman Jayden Maiava. That should be enough for UNLV to keep pace against Kansas' 100th-ranked defense by EPA/play.
Pick: UNLV (+13)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
