CFB Week 13: Best bets for Thanksgiving and Black Friday

It's the season's final week, and there's enough on the menu for Thanksgiving and Black Friday even before we get to Saturday's main course.

No. 12 Mississippi @ Mississippi State (+10, 55.5)

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EST

Before the season, the "Game of the Year" lines pegged the Egg Bowl as a competitive matchup with Ole Miss favored by around a field goal. Since then, the Rebels have earned a modest rating upgrade in the betting market. Meanwhile, Mississippi State's rating tumbled.

Veteran quarterback-tailback combo Will Rogers and Jo'Quavious Marks missed time, and the Bulldogs fired first-year head coach Zach Arnett amidst a 5-6 campaign in which three losses came with a backup quarterback. The season can be salvaged with a bowl berth and a win over their archrival.

But we won't ask them to accomplish all that.

Mississippi State's rating doesn't have to get back to its original level for there to be value in getting double digits. The market's noticed just that since the line reopened at +11.5 on Sunday and, as a result, has been bet down.

Pick: Mississippi State (+10)

Iowa @ Nebraska (-2, 26.5)

Friday, 12:00 p.m. EST

While Michigan and Ohio State battle for the other spot, Iowa somehow already punched its ticket to next week's Big Ten title game. And that's despite the worst offense west of East Carolina.

Nebraska saw what Chubba Purdy (yes, Brock's brother) could do with an 84.2 quarterback rating in his first start against Wisconsin last week. That's more than any Hawkeye pass-thrower has in them, so look for the Cornhuskers to do just enough in a game with a historically low total to get to their own postseason contest.

Pick: Nebraska moneyline (-130)

Toledo @ Central Michigan (+10, 54.5)

Friday, 12:00 p.m. EST

Once again, a team that's accomplished its goals (Toledo's heading to the MAC Championship) is visiting another that's a game away from a bowl.

The line opened with Toledo favored by 12, but Central Michigan's now just a 10-point underdog. That's the fair line by my numbers, but it doesn't account for the situation.

CMU is undefeated at home and beat South Alabama on the road. The Jaguars are comparably rated to the Rockets, who have an average winning margin of four points in their MAC road games this season.

Pick: Central Michigan (+10)

TCU @ No. 13 Oklahoma (-10, 63.5)

Friday, 12:00 p.m. EST

This line has also come down, presumably because TCU has a chance to get a bowl berth. But we'll buy the discount on the favorite in this case.

This line opened at Oklahoma -12.5, but the Horned Frogs seem to be getting credit for snapping a three-game losing streak by blowing out 3-8 Baylor. But going to Norman - with the Sooners playing for a Big 12 Championship berth - is a far tougher test for Freshman quarterback Josh Hoover.

Expect Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners to run up the score and let the conference tiebreakers fall where they may on Saturday.

Pick: Oklahoma (-10)

UTSA @ No. 23 Tulane (-3.5, 51.5)

Friday, 3:30 p.m. EST

We missed Tulane -3, and it's worth waiting to see if that comes back. Hopefully, though, it won't matter.

With a couple of bounces and a better whistle, Tulane could've beaten Ole Miss, and this quasi-AAC semi-final would have had the potential to give the Green Wave an undefeated season. I like Tulane, even beyond the fact that this line might be a touchdown if UTSA didn't beat up on the bottom half of the conference. The Green Wave were in a similar situation last season and are the heavyweights the Roadrunners aren't accustomed to facing.

Pick: Tulane (-3.5)

No. 9 Missouri @ Arkansas (+7.5, 54.5)

Friday, 4:00 p.m. EST

If it were only a matter of how good these two teams are and their ratings coming into the Battle Line Rivalry, this game would be lined closer to a field goal. Arkansas had a higher preseason rating than Missouri, but they've virtually swapped places since. The Tigers have gone 9-2 with two impressive wins, while the Razorbacks are 4-7 with two unexpected bad losses.

The matchup taking place in Fayetteville should level things some, and the expectation is that K.J. Jefferson will leave everything on the field in what could be his final game. Rocket Sanders wasn't able to get healthy, so look for freshman Isaiah Augustave to get some attention.

Pick: Arkansas (+7.5)

Texas Tech @ No. 7 Texas (-12.5, 54.5)

Friday, 7:30 p.m. EST

Based on market power ratings, it should be no surprise that this line has come off Texas -14, but the Red Raiders' play down the stretch supports it. Texas Tech won three straight over legit competition after Behren Morton returned from an injury he suffered in a close contest against Kansas State.

The Red Raiders haven't lost a game that Morton has prepped for, started and finished this season. They won't win this one, but all but one of the Longhorns' wins since losing the Red River Rivalry have been close.

Pick: Texas Tech (+12.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.