Our long, international nightmare is over. Football is back. Sure, there's not much on the Week 0 menu more than an amuse-bouche in Dublin and a mildly interesting MAC-Mountain West showdown that looks a lot like a pre-Christmas bowl game, but at least it's something!
During the dog days of summer, we looked at how season-win total markets shaped the rating for each team and how to build point spreads off of that. With that knowledge in tow, let's look at the seven games that make up Week 0 of college football.
Navy vs. No. 13 Notre Dame (-20.5, 49)
It took six tries before Notre Dame covered as a double-digit favorite last year, including a three-point win over Navy in Baltimore. The Irish had 35 first-half points but never scored again as the Midshipmen finished just shy of a comeback. That's particularly notable since Navy managed to generate 255 rushing yards in a come-from-behind game script and didn't get run over defensively when it trailed.
Navy is going through some offensive changes by trying to throw more, but that doesn't mean Notre Dame will be ready for it. As much as the triple-option is a pain to prepare for, at least you know what you're up against with little threat of the pass. Meanwhile, Notre Dame was conservative offensively last year due to a lack of trust in its quarterback(s). Now, the Fighting Irish have Sam Hartman, who - while an upgrade - has to adjust from Wake Forest's slow mesh concepts to a run-heavy culture.
With both offenses potentially prone to stumble in the season's early stages, we'll grab Navy at +21, even if it means shopping for a -120 price.
Pick: Navy (+21 at -120 or better)
UTEP @ Jacksonville St. (+1, 53.5)
The betting market has done its best to estimate how Jacksonville State will match up as it jumps from FCS to FBS this season. However, there's a better chance the Gamecocks are rated too high than too low. Rich Rodriguez's group may not have the depth - particularly on defense - to get a win here. In its lone step up to FBS last season, Jacksonville State lost 54-17 to Tulsa, getting outgained 621-295 by a team similarly rated as UTEP. Gavin Hardison, one of Conference USA's best quarterbacks, should have a big day as the Miners return most of their offense.
Pick: UTEP ML (-115)
UMass @ New Mexico St. (-6.5, 45)
There's reason to be skeptical here considering New Mexico State got into a bowl game last season in the sneakiest fashion imaginable by taking advantage of a bad schedule and adding a game against Valparaiso late. However, one of the bad teams on that schedule was UMass. Strangely, the market seems to like the Minutemen in this contest, as the line passed from -9 through the key number of -7 to -6.5. That move is too far.
The Aggies went on the road to UMass and won by 10 points last season, shutting out the Minutemen in the second half. I'm willing to trust that Jerry Kill has done a good enough job in improving his team since the end of the regular season, while I don't have the same faith in Don Brown and a team that's won two FBS games since 2018.
Pick: New Mexico St. (-6.5)
Ohio @ San Diego St. (-2, 49)
Speaking of a move through a key number, San Diego State spent some time at -3.5 this summer, but Ohio took enough sharp action in the last week to come off of +3. If you grabbed the Bobcats at that number, you're all set. But I wouldn't do anything now, as the only move would be to bet the Aztecs. It's not worth fading the market's move.
Pick: Pass
Hawaii @ Vanderbilt (-17.5, 55.5)
If Hawaii is 17.5 points worse than Vanderbilt, we should all bet the under on their season win total right now because this point spread suggests the Rainbow Warriors are rated around 15/100 by our scale. Maybe they are that bad, but I'll give Timmy Chang's rebuild one chance to prove this number wrong.
Vandy won a blowout in Hawaii to start last year, with the Rainbow Warriors having no answer for the running ability of Commodores quarterback Mike Wright. Thankfully, Wright is at Mississippi State this campaign.
Pick: Hawaii +17.5
San Jose St. @ No. 6 USC (-30.5, 66.5)
The line here is about right, and USC should cruise with its high-octane offense and what's expected to be an improved defense. This means a bet here is probably just signing up for late fourth-quarter hijinks and the hopes for a backdoor cover by San Jose State against the Trojans' second and third teams.
Pick: Pass
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech (-11, 58.5)
Like UMass, FIU was one of the worst teams in college football last year. The only way to play this would be to bet against the Panthers, but the line has gone from fair at -9.5 to up to -11. We're not going to start the season by forcing a bet on a bad number on a Louisiana Tech team that isn't exactly a title contender.
Pick: Pass
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
