You should always build your handicap around what statistics and metrics you believe to be most important. As we head into March Madness, I'll be basing my handicaps for conference tournaments around individual teams' shot quality (SQ). Using shotquality.com's Adjusted Offensive points (AdjOFF), Adjusted Defensive points (AdjDEF), and "Rim & 3" rate (R3), we'll back teams who excel at getting good shots and limiting their opponents' shot quality. While we can't predict whether the balls bounce in or out, we'll let the chips fall where they may knowing we have a basis for our search for value against the spread.
Big South (March 1)
Early-round bet: (10) Presbyterian vs. (7) Campbell
The bad news: Presbyterian finished 1-17 in-conference and won two D-I games all season. The good news: ShotQuality's luck metric suggests that the Blue Hose should've been 10-18, so they got that going for them.
Admittedly, Campbell does most everything better than Presbyterian, but not by much. Both teams are shooting 31% from three, and they both have a negative margin on the glass. With a fresh slate, look for the Blue Hose to compete, even if they fall short of advancing.
Pick: Presbyterian (+7)
Late-round matchup to target: (5) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) UNC-Asheville
Maybe Drew Pember, the Big South's leading scorer, goes nuts. Or maybe the Bulldogs never even get their third shot at UNC-Asheville. However, if we get this semifinal matchup, it's time to take a shot with Gardner-Webb. When it comes to shot quality metrics in the Big South, we're looking for anyone doing anything above average. GW forces opponents into 0.98 points per possession, the only instance of above-average adjusted metrics in the conference.
Pick: Gardner-Webb (+2.5 or better)
Champ pick: Winthrop (+1300)
Winthrop knows what a good shot looks like, and the Eagles can make them. They're 13th in the country in R3 rate, and their 38.7% clip is the highest in the conference. They were one of two teams to beat top-seeded Asheville, and with five players in double figures, they can match up with Pember and Asheville's shooters in a high-pressure championship game.
NEC (March 1)
Early-round bet: (5) Wagner @ (4) Sacred Heart
Wagner leads the NEC in rebounding margin, which is important considering the Seahawks were dead last in scoring. They try to drag you into a rock fight, but Sacred Heart's nine-point win came in just such an affair when both teams shot 22% from three. Wagner's earlier win came when the team shot 55% from the field, an outlier for a squad that was the only team to shoot under 40% in-conference.
Sacred Heart is 75th nationally in R3 rate - good for an NEC team - so it takes good shots. Wagner is more like an average NEC team: 252nd in R3 rate and 348th in adjusted offense.
Pick: Sacred Heart (-2)
Late-round matchup to target: (2) Fairleigh Dickinson @ (1) Merrimack
The theoretical power of home-court advantage is the only reason to think that the chalk may hold to the final of the NEC Tournament but, if it does, we'll be on the underdog Knights.
Merrimack caught and passed Fairleigh Dickinson in the standings late in the season because FDU lost more home games than you'd expect. However, the Knights were deadly on the road beating Merrimack in North Andover, as well as Wagner and Stonehill (ineligible for postseason play).
The Warriors have the conference's worst rebounding margin, which might be why they got swept by FDU in the regular season despite having good ShotQuality metrics. Grabbing 23 more rebounds than your opponent over two games makes you a viable underdog.
Pick: Fairleigh-Dickinson (+2.5 or better)
Champ pick: Central Connecticut St. (+3000)
There's no true powerhouse in the Northeast Conference, so why not make a small bet on a long shot? I have six teams within 2.5 points of each other on a neutral court, so the only hesitancy with the 6-seed Blue Devils is that they have to win three road games in a row.
Maybe consider this a bonus early-round bet, as CCSU is live to knock off Saint Francis as projected 3-point underdogs. The Red Flash likely won't hit 14 of 21 threes as they did at home in the regular-season matchup. From there, CCSU's biggest challenge would come in the semis against Merrimack, where the Warriors were just 3-point favorites last week.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
