Big picture, Anthony Davis' season-ending knee and shoulder injuries aren't really bad news for the New Orleans Pelicans. In reality, his absence will only serve to help them tank the rest of the season, which is something they should've been trying to do since December.
For Davis himself, though, the missed games could come with an immense cost. They could mean the difference between him earning, or missing out on, a contract bonus of approximately $24 million.
Davis is in the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, and the end-of-season All-NBA selections represent his last opportunity to trigger the "Derrick Rose Rule" - a provision in the collective bargaining agreement that kicks in if a player accomplishes one of the following while on his rookie deal:
- Wins MVP
- Voted an All-Star starter twice
- Voted to any of the three All-NBA teams twice
Davis has only been named an All-Star starter once, and won't be winning this year's MVP, meaning he needs a second All-NBA nod (he was a first-teamer last year) to earn the bonus.
Under the "Derrick Rose Rule," a player coming off a rookie deal becomes eligible to make up to 30 percent of the league's salary cap (instead of 25 percent) on his next contract, which in Davis' case - given current cap projections - means a bump from approximately $121 million to $145 million over five years.
But with Davis' season now officially over after 61 games, it's fair to wonder whether his body of work in 2015-16 will be enough to warrant inclusion. He made the first team last year while playing 68 games, so missed time alone shouldn't make the difference.
What matters more is that his 61 games - while impressive on an individual level - didn't contribute to a great deal of team success. Davis ranks seventh in the NBA in scoring, eighth in rebounding, fourth in blocks, and seventh in PER, but the Pelicans have the league's sixth-worst record (26-43) and defensive rating (106.7). That obviously doesn't all fall on Davis, but it bears mentioning that his defense (like the Pelicans' as a whole) has been lackadaisical and unfocused more often than not, and that New Orleans has actually been four points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor.
Davis had, by his standards, a rough start to the season, and with frequent bumps and bruises forcing him to play in fits and starts, he never seemed to find a consistent rhythm. He started to play his best basketball in the second half, though, averaging 27.4 points, 11.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.4 blocks, with a 38.7-percent 3-point shooting mark after the All-Star break.
A ton of factors contribute to team success, and penalizing Davis for the misadventures of the snakebitten Pelicans - who have lost virtually their entire wing rotation to season-ending injuries, and have defensive holes all over the roster - would be a bit reductive. But regardless of one's numbers, playing for a team with a sub-.400 winning percentage while sitting out a quarter of the season isn't an All-NBA formula.
How Davis is classified, positionally, could also be a factor. If voters consider him a forward - as they did last season - his fate is probably already sealed. It's hard to see him nabbing a spot in a field that includes LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Paul Millsap, Paul George, and LaMarcus Aldridge, to name but a few.
But Davis has played more minutes at center than power forward this year, according to data compiled by Seth Partnow of Nylon Calculus, and as a center, he could have an opening. There hasn't been one dominant pivot in the league this season, and none seems like an automatic for any of the All-NBA teams (the way James, Leonard, Durant, and Green are at the forward spots).
Last year's first-team center, Marc Gasol, played just 52 games before undergoing season-ending foot injury. DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, and Hassan Whiteside have all been super-solid two-way bigs, but they've all been plagued to some extent by offensive one-dimensionality, and free-throw shooting woes that can make them crunch-time liabilities. DeMarcus Cousins has the best individual numbers at the position, but his Kings have scarcely performed better than the Pelicans, and his off-court behavior has occasionally overshadowed his on-court brilliance. There are a handful of other realistic candidates - Tim Duncan, Rudy Gobert, Al Horford, Pau Gasol - but none who'd be considered snubs if Davis made it ahead of them
All told, you could make a case that Davis has an outside shot at sneaking into one of the three center spots, but that's about it. There's no telling whether the last 13 games of the season would've made a difference, but staying healthy is a skill, and one Davis has yet to master.
Still, as Davis himself said last week: "$125 million is still a lot of money ... a lot of damn money."
