April 13, 2016, was an eventful day in the NBA. As Kobe Bryant dropped 60 points during his career finale in front of a celebrity-filled crowd, the Warriors completed the most historic regular season ever, breaking the 1995-96 Bulls' record of 72 wins.
Golden State's improbable feat previously seemed like it wouldn't be eclipsed for decades - if at all. Ten years later, the 21-1 Thunder have a legitimate chance to win 74 games and stake their claim in history. The defending champs are overpowering teams by an average margin of 15.3 points, eclipsing their own point-differential record set last season (12.9).
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Oklahoma City's 15.1 net rating would also be the best in NBA history. Last year's group finished with a 12.8 net rating, the second best ever, trailing only the 1995-96 Bulls.
While the Thunder won't win 78 games, which they're currently on pace for, a more realistic question remains: Could they win 74?
Thunder wins odds
| Wins | Odds |
|---|---|
| 70+ | -105 |
| 72+ | +210 |
| 74+ | +525 |
| 76+ | +1300 |
The Thunder have a 16% implied probability of breaking the record, which seems low considering their supremacy. The schedule, however, is working against them. Oklahoma City has faced the NBA's easiest schedule thus far and has the hardest remaining strength of schedule. While the weak competition has somewhat propelled the team's strong start, so has its roster depth and defensive dominance.
The rest of the league is playing a never-ending game of whack-a-mole with OKC. When you think one key player is knocked out, another pops up. The most impressive part about the Thunder's start is that Jalen Williams, their second-best player, missed the team's first 19 contests.
It didn't matter, thanks to their cutting-edge scouting, drafting, and development system. Ajay Mitchell, who rarely played during last season's championship run, is averaging 15 points in 26.7 minutes. Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe are scoring career highs of 13.5 and 12.9 points per game, respectively.
Seven Thunder players are averaging at least 12 points, and 11 are playing more than 18 minutes per contest. (Only one of those 11 is older than 27.) And I haven't even mentioned Chet Holmgren or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The former is having a career-best season in scoring (18.4 points per game) and is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. The latter has somehow elevated his performance following one of the most impressive individual campaigns ever.
The one underwhelming part of Gilgeous-Alexander's game over his career has been his 3-point shooting. He was never a poor shooter, but opponents have typically been more comfortable letting him pull up from deep than allowing him to accelerate downhill or get to his mid-range spots. Well, that perceived weakness no longer exists. The reigning MVP is shooting a career-high 43% from distance.
Gilgeous-Alexander is approaching rarified air as an all-time great guard. Only four players have averaged at least 30 points for four consecutive campaigns - Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson, Wilt Chamberlain, and Adrian Dantley. SGA will become the fifth this season.
The 27-year-old has scored at least 20 points in 94 straight games. Only Chamberlain has displayed that level of scoring consistency with 126 straight 20-point outings. Gilgeous-Alexander is +175 to break the record.
The shotmaking and clutch scoring - he leads the NBA in clutch points - is nothing new for Gilgeous-Alexander, but he's also mastered playmaking of late.
"The only thing that's really shown up a little differently is he's really starting to manipulate the game as a playmaker," Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault said in October.
His driving ability often forces defenses to send an extra defender or crowd his driving lanes. However, he perfectly reads defensive coverages. Blitz? Switch? Drop? Show? It doesn't matter. SGA, who's averaging a career-low 1.7 turnovers (tied with his rookie season) and a career-high 6.5 assists, will make the right play.
The Thunder's offense is just as good as last year's, but relentless defense remains their identity. They hold teams to 103.8 points per 100 possessions, seven points fewer than the next-best defense. Their persistent ball pressure forces the most turnovers in the league, and they have the second-best turnover rate, consistently winning the possession battle.
Their carousel of defenders allows zero breathing room to opposing guards, and the frontcourt duo of Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein efficiently protects the rim.
Oklahoma City's daily commitment and buy-in from stars and role players alike over an 82-game season is practically unheard of. Even the best NBA teams take nights off. OKC has nothing to prove after capturing a championship but plays like a group that hasn't yet won a playoff series.
So, can the Thunder win 74 games? They're favored to win every game the rest of the season, according to ESPN Analytics, and have proven that they swallowed enough electrolytes to avoid a championship hangover. The durability, depth, and consistent relentlessness that Oklahoma City displays are unprecedented. Still, there's a reason no team has ever gone 74-8. It's a long shot, but if any group is wired to accomplish the unimaginable, it's the Thunder.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.
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