The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio, is on deck this week. Scottie Scheffler will look to make it three in a row at the event hosted by Jack Nicklaus.
Scheffler's run of dominance at Jack's place has secured his position as the heavy betting favorite to complete the three-peat. The world No. 1 is +300 on theScore Bet to come out on top of the 72-man field and claim his second PGA TOUR title of the year.
Outright winner
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +300 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1100 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1400 |
| Cameron Young | +1600 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 |
| Russell Henley | +1800 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +2200 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
| Ben Griffin | +3000 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +3500 |
| Justin Thomas | +3500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 |
Scheffler has been held out of the winner's circle since his first start of the season at The American Express. Since then, he's racked up six top-five finishes in 10 starts, including three straight second-place results.
A win is coming for the game's best player, and it could very well occur at a course that rewards his accuracy off the tee and elite long-iron play more than any other on the PGA TOUR schedule. Muirfield Village presents a major championship test, and its ability to separate the best players from the pack is why Scheffler has finished inside the top three in each of his last four Memorial appearances.
Past Memorial winners
2025: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-8)
2023: Viktor Hovland (-7)
2022: Billy Horschel (-13)
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13)
2020: Jon Rahm (-9)
2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
Picks to win
🏌️ Bet: Matthew Fitzpatrick to win outright (+2200)
Hand up - I'm scared of Scheffler this week, and if you want to dabble in markets without the favorite, go for it. However, for my first pick, I'll take on Scheffler by backing Fitzpatrick to win.
Fitzpatrick remains undervalued compared to players such as Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele. Neither player has matched Fitzpatrick's form this season, but the Englishman isn't as popular in the betting market, so his odds are longer.
What I like most about Fitzpatrick is the fact that he already stared down Scheffler this season and beat him in a playoff at the RBC Heritage. Very few players can say they went toe to toe with the world No. 1 and came out on top.
While his track record around Muirfield Village pales in comparison to Scheffler's, Fitzpatrick has found some success at the Nicklaus layout. He's placed inside the top 10 three times in seven appearances, including a T5 result two years ago.
🏌️ Bet: Hideki Matsuyama to win without Scottie Scheffler (+3000)
Not having to worry about what Scheffler does with this wager takes some stress out of the week. Now, Hideki Matsuyama can come second to Scheffler and still cash a +3000 ticket.
Matsuyama is a former winner at Muirfield Village and has three other top-10 finishes at this event. His approach play has been exceptional in recent weeks: He gained four or more strokes with his irons in four of his last six events. Add in Matsuyama's world-class short game, and he quickly becomes an ideal candidate to contend this week.
The former Masters champ's chances will ultimately come down to his off-the-tee play, but if he can hit a field-average amount of fairways, he should be in a good position come Sunday.
🏌️ Bet: Sepp Straka to win without Scottie Scheffler (+5000)
Sepp Straka's last two trips to Muirfield Village resulted in a fifth- and third-place showing. There's something to be said for that level of recent form, and it's why the Austrian is one of my picks for the week.
Having won a signature event also adds to Straka's allure. He took down a similar field last year at the Truist Championship, so he knows he can win in star-studded fields. He also tied for fourth at the Cadillac Championship three starts ago and gained seven strokes on the field with his approach play last week at the Austrian Open.
Returning from overseas could present a hurdle to contending at the Memorial. But I trust Straka's accuracy off the tee and strong iron play to give him a better shot to win without factoring in Scheffler than his +5000 odds suggest.
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