The Toronto Maple Leafs' Game 7 loss to the Florida Panthers on Sunday was a disaster in every sense of the word. But if there's any silver lining to the utterly embarrassing effort, it's that there's no escaping a dramatic offseason shake-up that a large portion of the fan base has been longing for.
Brendan Shanahan is out as president, and star forward Mitch Marner is widely expected to be next. But where, specifically, do the Leafs go afterward?
It would be too soon to move on from general manager Brad Treliving (hired April 2023) or head coach Craig Berube (hired May 2024). With $21.9 million coming off the books this offseason between Marner and John Tavares alone, we'll explore different avenues the Maple Leafs could take with their newfound cap space. We'll get into some "what-if" roster outlooks below, but before doing so, it's important to outline several constants these mocks will share:
Keep defense, goaltending intact
For once, the Maple Leafs are pretty much set on defense and in goal. That doesn't mean Treliving shouldn't be open to change, but it's unlikely.
On defense, Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson were all acquired within the past year. Jake McCabe was just extended, and Morgan Rielly has a full no-movement clause. Simon Benoit and Philippe Myers are perfectly fine No. 6 and 7 D-men at their cap hits. Even if Treliving wanted to, making changes wouldn't be easy.
In net, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll were one of the league's best tandems. Stolarz is a bargain at $2.5 million, and Woll is set to enter the first season of a three-year extension.
For our mock rosters, we'll assume the defense and goaltending stays intact.
Lock up Matthews Knies
This should be offseason priority No. 1. Knies, 22, is a budding star coming off a breakout season. The 6-foot-3, 227-pound power forward fits the style Treliving and Berube want to play. Treliving should do everything in his power to get Knies, a restricted free agent, signed as soon as possible for the maximum of eight years.
AFP Analytics projects Knies to sign a seven-year deal worth $7.2 million annually. Evolving-Hockey projects $6.3 million annually on a six-year deal. The eight-year deal the Leafs should seek would likely come in around $8 million. Adjusting for Toronto market inflation, we gave Knies $8.5 million annually on an eight-year deal in our mock rosters. It's a hefty pay raise in the short term but should age well over time.
Play hardball with Tavares
Tavares has said numerous times - including in the aftermath of Game 7 - that he wants to remain a Maple Leaf. If that's truly the case, and he's willing to do whatever it takes to bring a Stanley Cup to Toronto, he should take a significant hometown discount. Money shouldn't be a problem for Tavares, who's coming off a $77-million contract and has endless endorsement opportunities at his disposal in Toronto.
Matt Duchene re-signed with the Dallas Stars a year ago on a one-year, $3-million deal following a 65-point season. Patrice Bergeron, still playing at a Selke-caliber level entering his final season, took $2.5 million. The NHLPA might not be thrilled with players taking well below market value, but it's been done.
The Maple Leafs and Tavares reportedly discussed an extension in October. Some reports indicated a deal approaching $7-million annually. If that's the contract he's chasing after a 38-goal season, Toronto should let him sign elsewhere. But if he's willing to stay for around $5 million annually or less, the Leafs should absolutely take him back - even if it means increasing the term to get the cap hit lower. Cap hits for Tavares range from $3.8 million to $5 million in our mocks.
Sign Sam Bennett
Bennett became public enemy No. 1 in Toronto after injuring Stolarz in Game 1 with an elbow to the head, but it's easy to imagine him becoming a prime unrestricted free-agent target for the Maple Leafs this summer.
Bennett was the first draft pick Treliving made during his time as GM of the Calgary Flames. Bennett's tenure in Calgary ultimately didn't work out as hoped, but there's still familiarity between the executive and player.
Bennett checks a lot of boxes for what the Maple Leafs need. The soon-to-be 29-year-old could succeed Tavares as the team's No. 2 center. He brings the type of snarl Treliving and Berube covet and is a proven playoff performer.
There's no guarantee Bennett would be willing to sign in Toronto, even though he's from nearby Holland Landing, Ontario. But the Panthers' cap situation is tight, and they have a No. 2 center waiting in the wings in Anton Lundell.
Seeing an obvious fit between team and player, we gave Bennett a seven-year contract with a $7-million cap hit - $750K more per season than a recent comparable in Chandler Stephenson.
A deal this lucrative for Bennett would be risky, considering his analytics are suspect and his career high in points is just 51. However, of all the top UFAs, Bennett is the most logical fit for Toronto, and Treliving will have money to spend.
Other notes
We also made a handful of minor moves in our mock rosters that are worth noting:
- Ditch David Kampf: $2.4 million per season is far too pricey for Kampf, who was scratched in 12 of 13 playoff games. The Leafs can likely surrender a late-round pick to free themselves of his contract.
- Re-sign Pontus Holmberg: While he provides little offense, Holmberg is reliable defensively, trusted by Berube, and only 26 years old. We gave him a $100K raise as an RFA, bringing his cap hit to $900K.
- Move on from Nick Robertson: He's proven he can score 15 goals per year in limited minutes, but Robertson was a scratch for 10 of 13 playoff games and isn't a fit under Berube. Trading him for a late-round pick seems most likely at this point.
We didn't make any splash trades in our mock rosters. Dealing for a potentially available center, such as Bo Horvat, Nazem Kadri, or Marco Rossi, would be nice but probably not feasible. The Maple Leafs have a thin farm system and are without a first-round pick until 2028. As such, all additions were made through free agency.
Bold = New addition
Option 1: Bring in the winners
If the Maple Leafs want players who know what it takes to get things done when the stakes are highest, look no further than this roster. Patrick Kane, Brad Marchand, and Corey Perry have five Stanley Cup rings between them.
Whether they would even be willing to sign in Toronto remains to be seen, but they're built to handle the pressure that comes with it. While older, they're still highly effective players in their own way and would fit with Toronto's goal of winning now. Bringing in older players means handing out short-term deals, which would give the Maple Leafs ample cap flexibility in future years.
We re-signed Steven Lorentz and traded away Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1M) as a cap dump in this projection.
Option 2: A new core
Signing Bennett and Nikolaj Ehlers would essentially lock the Maple Leafs into a new core long term, which may give management pause. Although, it's easy to understand why there'd be interest in Ehlers, - a speedy, dynamic winger who's expected to sign for much less than Marner.
However, Ehlers' playoff resume isn't exactly sterling. He tallied five goals and two assists in eight games this spring but generated 14 points in 37 postseason games prior to this season.
In order to sign two big names up front, we're icing a 21-player roster (two goalies, seven defensemen, and 12 forwards). Tavares had to take $3.8 million in this instance, and it's possible he wouldn't be willing to go that low. We also re-signed Max Pacioretty following his strong postseason.
Option 3: Spread the wealth
This roster lacks the firepower of the other two, but Toronto natives Andrew Mangiapane, Connor Brown, and Brandon Tanev would give the team's bottom-six forward group a much-needed facelift.
Treliving drafted Mangiapane during his time with the Flames and signed him to the contract that expires this offseason. Mangiapane, 29, had a down offensive season, providing a buy-low opportunity for a player who, at worst, is strong defensively.
Brown, who spent the first four years of his career in Toronto, seemed to return to form this season with the Edmonton Oilers after tearing his ACL in October 2022. He's another hard-working, two-way winger capable of moving up and down the lineup.
It's easy to envision Tanev wanting to play with his brother, Chris. Brandon would bring energy and physicality to the fourth line.
This mock left a bit more money for Tavares than the other two.
