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If you've been burning the midnight oil this week, it may feel like we're far more than six days into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but some teams have only played two games. With a loaded schedule this weekend - a dozen games - we're looking at what individual game and in-series bets may be worth making.
Western Conference
Games 3, 4: Canucks (-105) @ Predators (-115)
(Friday, Sunday)
It took NHL insiders almost 48 hours to uncover Thatcher Demko's injury, and many bets for Game 2 were already placed. While Rick Tocchet gave the Predators credit for "wanting it more," the Canucks dominated play with a ridiculous 72.8% expected goals share at even strength, which included several missed wide-open nets. Casey DeSmith was serviceable but goals two and three likely wouldn't have been scored on Demko, as his size would have made a difference.
Rather than backing the Canucks in Game 3 - their first action in a hostile environment - we're taking a wider purview, eyeing Vancouver to win the series at -105. A split over the weekend in Music City would make the Canucks a big favorite with three games to go and buys time for a chance that Demko returns.
Games 3, 4: Jets (+145) @ Avalanche (-170)
(Friday, Sunday)
We hypothesized before Game 2 that it was more likely the Jets would get better play from Connor Hellebuyck and tighten the big even-strength advantage the Avalanche had in Game 1 instead of Alexandar Georgiev having a good game.
The unpredictability of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is perfectly exemplified by Hellebuyck posting a Vezina-caliber season in between a 1-5 playoff record and 4.34 GAA the last two postseasons. Meanwhile, Georgiev bounced back strong. Go figure.
If you're holding a ticket on the Jets to win the series, there's no reason to take a chance with the underdog until Hellebuyck shows he's capable, since the expected goals differential has been 8.04-3.73 in favor of Colorado. Instead, standing pat and hoping for a split is the prudent move.
Games 3, 4: Oilers (-140) @ Kings (+120)
(Friday, Sunday)
We found one of the rare first-round underdogs in Game 2. The Kings' overtime win was proof they could put up a fight against the Oilers (in part because neither goaltender can be reasonably relied upon to be a positive difference-maker). With the series back in L.A., and the Kings getting the benefit of the last change - the option to match their best defenders with Connor McDavid - I expect the home underdogs to win one of two. Bet the Kings' moneyline in Game 3, and if they lose, try it again in Game 4 (barring a key injury).
Game 3: Stars (-105) @ Golden Knights (-115)
(Saturday)
The Stars were priced at -140 (58.3%) to win Game 1, and their even-strength metrics suggested they should have won 60% of the time. In Game 2, Dallas' -160 closing line suggested it was 61.5% likely to win, and its even-strength metrics suggested it would win 61% of the time. Dallas won neither.
If you hold a Dallas position, you're probably looking at a sunk cost, since the Golden Knights have shown the same prowess in close games that helped them win the Cup last year. Otherwise, how can you not simply back inevitable Vegas as the short home favorite?
Eastern Conference
Games 3, 4: Rangers (-175) @ Capitals (+150)
(Friday, Sunday)
A bet on the Capitals (+240) deserved better in Game 2 as Washington had nine even-strength high-danger chances to New York's three. A Rangers' shorthanded goal was the difference.
Unlike the Kings, we're taking only one shot backing the Capitals to make this series interesting, by taking them on the Game 3 moneyline. If they go down 3-0 in the series, I won't be pressing my luck a second time.
Game 4: Hurricanes (-180) @ Islanders (+155)
(Saturday)
The Islanders topped the Hurricanes 2.38-1.3 in even-strength expected goals and nearly doubled their high-danger chances in Game 3 (10-6). However, none of Carolina's three goals came on a high-danger chance. Starting Ilya Sorokin backfired for New York; he was pulled after the final Canes marker in what ended up a 3-2 Carolina win, and what's now a 3-0 series.
Historically, teams down 3-0 with Game 4 at home win it roughly 38% of the time. That might seem low, but translating those chances to a moneyline equates to +163. It also includes a subset of teams in an era of less parity that were swept with little resistance.
Since the salary cap was instituted in 2005 - a move partially designed to increase parity - teams down 3-0 are 31-34 in Game 4 regardless of location. That 47.7% winning percentage translates to +110 on the moneyline.
The Isles' run-of-play advantage in Game 3 and their return to Semyon Varlamov makes them interesting at +155, given they played well. Still, the market is drifting away, based on the often false assumption that a team down 3-0 has lost the will to compete.
Game 4: Panthers (-125) @ Lightning (+105)
(Saturday)
Blame an offside that negated a goal for Tampa Bay, or the coin-flip nature of a playoff game with a 1.46-1.44 expected goals differential, but the Lightning find themselves in the same position as the Isles. Like that series, Game 4 history applies here too, but Andrei Vasilevskiy regressed badly in a 5-3 loss, so Tampa doesn't have the same card to play between the pipes, and you're not getting a valuable price to back the underdog Lightning.
Game 4: Bruins (-105) @ Maple Leafs (-115)
(Saturday)
We'll see how the possible return of William Nylander affects the line. However, like Game 2, the Bruins will either do something they're unaccustomed to by starting Jeremy Swayman back-to-back, or return Linus Ullmark between the pipes. Let's back the Maple Leafs before the line moves toward them with any good roster news.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
