We have a small two-game slate Monday night as the NHL resumes following a pause for All-Star Weekend.
Although no sides or totals stand out, I still see plenty of value on the board in the player prop market. Let's take a closer look.
Noah Dobson: Over 0.5 assists
Dobson is red-hot. He's picked up an assist in all four games since Patrick Roy took over as the Islanders' bench boss and five straight overall.
What we're seeing from Dobson is the perfect storm. He's playing great hockey, owning better than a 60% expected goals share under Roy while having been on the ice for more xGF than anybody on the roster.
Dobson's also getting a ton of ice time. He logged 26:30 in Roy's debut behind the bench. The 24-year-old followed that up by playing 27:57 against the Golden Knights, 30:17 against the Canadiens, and a hair under 28 minutes versus the Panthers in the game before the break.
Dobson is a highly gifted defenseman who facilitates a ton of offense from the back end. With the Islanders in a heated playoff race and coming off a lengthy break, there's every reason to believe Dobson will continue to log minutes in bulk.
The matchup against the Maple Leafs is also conducive to offensive success. Only nine teams have given up expected goals at a higher rate than Toronto over the past 10 contests. There should be plenty of chances coming the Islanders' way, and Dobson will undoubtedly be involved in a lot of them with how much ice he'll see. Expect him to pick up another assist along the way.
Odds: -135 (playable to -155)
John Tavares: Over 3.5 shots
Tavares put together a rather poor January but started to come on before the All-Star break. He averaged 4.8 shots on 7.2 attempts over his final five games, capping things off by snapping his goal drought against the Jets. A string of better performances, coupled with a nice break to reset, should have Tavares feeling good as the Maple Leafs return to action.
The stars are aligning for Tavares to put together another good night of shot volume against the Islanders. New York plays a high-event brand of hockey that tends to lead to a lot of shots at both ends.
Tavares is also equipped with the pair of linemates he's enjoyed the most shooting success with. Among the five forwards the Leafs captain has spent a decent chunk of time alongside this season, he's posted his best shooting rates with Tyler Bertuzzi and William Nylander. It just so happens Tavares will skate with those two in this game.
Tavares has gone over his shot total in four of his past five contests and four straight against his former team. This is a great spot for another active offensive performance.
Odds: -130 (playable to -145)
Vincent Trocheck: Under 2.5 shots
Trocheck's shot volume has fallen off a cliff lately. He's registered two shots or less in seven consecutive games, which is concerning given that he faced off against bottom-feeders like the Senators, Ducks, and Sharks.
And it wasn't just bad variance in the form of Trocheck missing the net on a higher percentage of shots than usual. He simply wasn't generating many. Trocheck attempted four shots or fewer in six of those seven contests.
For perspective, Trocheck has gone under his total all 22 times he attempted four shots or fewer this season. And that number has been the norm for him of late.
I don't anticipate seeing much of a spike against the Avalanche. Only seven teams have allowed fewer shots per game this campaign, and Colorado's starting to get healthier.
With the way their goaltending has struggled recently, the Rangers have tried to suck the life out of games and put more emphasis on slowing teams down defensively. That's taken away from the club's offensive game, as New York ranks 20th in shot generation over the past 10 contests despite a pretty soft schedule.
Odds: -113 (playable to -130)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
