The Saints went 7-10 on the field and against the spread last season but are now favorites to win the NFC South - an indication of how bad the division might be. Another indication? New Orleans' difference-making offseason move was grabbing a quarterback who the Raiders had seen enough of.
Tom Brady's retirement opens up the NFC South, though the Buccaneers' 8-9 record already gave their division rivals every opportunity to make the playoffs. This is probably why the Saints felt like adding Derek Carr might be enough for them to top the division. The betting market responded to that move by virtually shrugging and saying, "Yeah, I guess so."
That tepid endorsement of the Saints' place in the league is due, in large part, to head coach Dennis Allen's 15-38 straight-up record (21-32 against the number).
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 9.5 (+105/-125) |
| Division | +125 |
| Conference | +1400 |
| Super Bowl | +4000 |
| Estimated rating | 53/100 |
By adding up regular-season win total markets, the AFC South is collectively worse than the NFC South, but at least it has the Jaguars, who are 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. The Saints have the longest price to win the Super Bowl of any division favorite. On the flip side, they have a relatively high win total of 9.5 - indicative of having six games against the Panthers, Falcons and the Brady-less Bucs. With those markets contradicting themselves, committing to an estimated rating for the Saints is a challenge.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | NO -3 |
| 2 | @CAR | NO -1 |
| 3 | @GB | GB -1 |
| 4 | TB | NO -5.5 |
| 5 | @NE | NE -2.5 |
| 6 | @HOU | NO -3 |
| 7 | JAX | NO -1 |
| 8 | @IND | NO -1.5 |
| 9 | CHI | NO -2.5 |
| 10 | @MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 12 | @ATL | NO -1 |
| 13 | DET | NO -1 |
| 14 | CAR | NO -3.5 |
| 15 | NYG | NO -2.5 |
| 16 | @LAR | NO -1 |
| 17 | @TB | NO -1.5 |
| 18 | ATL | NO -2.5 |
The game-by-game betting markets don't know what to make of the 2023 Saints. Fifteen of New Orleans' 17 games are lined at three points or less, meaning it can't get that far away from pick'em as a favorite or underdog.
Any projected nine-win team should be favored by more than a field goal at home against opponents projected to be below .500, meaning the Saints are undervalued in their Week 1 home game against the Titans - a 7.5-win team. However, in Week 12, the Saints are favorites on the road in Atlanta - the next-best NFC South team - when home-field advantage should probably make the 8.5-win Falcons slight favorites.
If any of that is attributed to Alvin Kamara's potential unavailability at the start of the season, that's an overreaction.
What's to like about the Saints
The Saints' win total reflects their relatively easy schedule, and the team will return a top-five defense - the unit that's Allen's forte. New Orleans gave up just 5 yards per play last season, and only the Eagles surrendered more yards per pass attempt. All of that came without Marshon Lattimore for 10 games, and the Saints have made efforts to upgrade the defensive line depth by poaching Khalen Saunders from the Chiefs and drafting Bryan Bresee - a one-time top prospect - and Isaiah Foskey with their first two picks.
What's not to like about the Saints
We led with concerns over the head coach and his results in over 50 games of experience, but this is the most veteran talent he's got to work with.
We're making some assumptions about Pete Carmichael's offense. Carr allows for a less-is-more approach with Taysom Hill and is supposed to stabilize the quarterback position that's been a mess since Drew Brees retired. We're also cautiously optimistic about Michael Thomas playing this season - but would we be remotely shocked if he didn't?
The Saints' offensive line contains familiar names and high draft picks, but their play hasn't matched the hype.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | MVP | +5000 |
| Comeback POTY | +5000 | |
| Most passing yards | +3500 | |
| Most passing TD | +6500 | |
| Taysom Hill | Offensive POTY | +6000 |
| Alvin Kamara | Offensive POTY | +10000 |
| Most rushing yards | +4500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +3000 | |
| Jamaal Williams | Most rushing TD | +5000 |
| Chris Olave | Offensive POTY | +5500 |
| Most receptions | +3500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +3500 | |
| Most receiving TD | +2800 | |
| Michael Thomas | Most receptions | +8000 |
| Most receiving yards | +6000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +10000 | |
| Cameron Jordan | Most sacks | +5000 |
| Bryan Bresee | Defensive ROTY | +5000 |
| Isaiah Foskey | Defensive ROTY | +5500 |
| Coach of the Year | Dennis Allen | +2500 |
Chris Olave's rookie season might have gone somewhat under the radar. He caught 72 passes for 1,042 yards from Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, which could mean the sky is the limit. Carr had no problem throwing to Davante Adams on repeat last season, so Olave could get on the same tier as Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson while paying out almost 10 times as much to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Let's keep a close eye on early in the season to see what kind of snap-share the Saints' defensive rookies are getting. If Bresee or Foskey produce in a big way early, they could be worth an in-season bet for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
I'll pass on Allen to win Coach of the Year. First, I can't reasonably back someone with his track record. Secondly, if the Saints' expectation is 9.5 wins, they should have to go way above that for him to get consideration. Finally, if New Orleans does win 11-plus games, it'll be because Carr had a big season, not because of Allen's theoretical genius.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
