No matter what you think about the Jaguars, your understanding of their place in the betting market should start with a reminder that they were a home underdog in their wild-card game in January.
Their division is projected to be the easiest in the league. Adding up the regular-season win totals for the four teams in the AFC South gives you just 30 expected wins. Take out the Jaguars' 10 projected victories, and you're left with three teams expected to win 20 games out of 51 in total - a sub-.400 win percentage.
To their credit, Doug Pederson's influenced a culture change that helped the Jags storm back to beat the Chargers after falling 27-0 early on that Saturday night in Jacksonville. This likely had more to do with the confidence instilled in Trevor Lawrence after it was eroded during the brief Urban Meyer experiment. In Year 2, hopes should be high in Duval County.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.5 (+140) |
| Division | -155 |
| Conference | +1300 |
| Super Bowl | +2500 |
| Estimated rating | 55/100 |
While the teams in the AFC North got a ratings bump for the difficulty of their division, the Jaguars' rating got knocked down after we had them in the high-50s in mid-May because 10 wins out of a division with the Colts, Titans, and Texans wouldn't be all that impressive. Last year's 9-8 record and 8-8-1 mark against the spread also suggests mediocrity.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @IND | JAX -3.5 |
| 2 | KC | KC -3 |
| 3 | HOU | JAX -7 |
| 4 | ATL | JAX -4 |
| 5 | @BUF | BUF -3.5 |
| 6 | IND | JAX -6.5 |
| 7 | @NO | NO -1 |
| 8 | @PIT | PIT -1 |
| 10 | SF | SF -1 |
| 11 | TEN | JAX -5 |
| 12 | @HOU | JAX -4.5 |
| 13 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 14 | @CLE | CLE -1 |
| 15 | BAL | JAX -1 |
| 16 | @TB | JAX -3.5 |
| 17 | CAR | JAX -5 |
| 18 | @TEN | JAX -2.5 |
No, the point-spread machine isn't stuck on repeat; that's a lot of 1-point spreads. The Jaguars are otherwise favored in nine other games this season - six in their division and three against the also sub-par NFC South. The last we saw Jacksonville, it was a 10-point underdog in Kansas City. The Jaguars host the Chiefs in Week 2, but a 7-point flip in the spread seems like too much.
What's to like about the Jaguars
The biggest advantage any team has over another in the NFL is whatever continuity they can manufacture. Jacksonville is in the early stages of creating that. The less you have to work on the basics - the stuff you've already perfected - the more you can work on the hard stuff. Pederson and Lawrence haven't had to spend time getting to know each other this offseason. Instead, they have a history of what works for Lawrence and can build on that with all the other pieces that the Jags added a year ago.
It took much of last season for Jacksonville to figure out what they had in tailback Travis Etienne, as he opened the year playing fewer snaps than James Robinson in the first four games. Robinson isn't even on a team as of this writing. Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Zay Jones are back as primary targets for Lawrence, and a former first-round wide receiver joins them.
What's not to like about the Jaguars
Calvin Ridley is coming off a season-long suspension for gambling violations and is a younger replacement for Marvin Jones. Ridley had 90 catches for 1374 yards in his last full season, but there are few success stories of players who miss large chunks of time in the NFL.
The bigger issue is a current suspended player: left tackle Cam Robinson. The Jags went out of their way to extend Robinson before last season, opting not to draft a first-round tackle in 2022, but he'll be out the first four games due to a performance-enhancing drug suspension. With the other 2022 starter at tackle - Jawaan Taylor - having departed, the rest of the group is neither particularly talented nor deep, even after adding Oklahoma's Anton Harrison in the draft.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | MVP | +1400 |
| Offensive POTY | +4000 | |
| Most passing yards | +2200 | |
| Most passing TD | +3500 | |
| Travis Etienne | Offensive POTY | +5000 |
| Rushing yards | +3500 | |
| Rushing TD | +3500 | |
| Calvin Ridley | Offensive POTY | +6000 |
| Most receptions | +6500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +5000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +2200 | |
| Comeback POTY | +3500 | |
| Christian Kirk | Most receptions | +7500 |
| Most receiving yards | +6000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +5000 | |
| Travon Walker | Defensive POTY | +7000 |
| Josh Allen | Defensive POTY | +15000 |
| Most sacks | +5000 | |
| Doug Pederson | Coach of the Year | +2200 |
Lawrence is the sixth choice in the MVP market, with only Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen (BUF), Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert ahead of him. That sounds incredibly optimistic until you start looking at the list of players behind him. Outside of Lamar Jackson (+1500), it's hard to make a better case for anyone else.
Coming out of college, Etienne was supposed to be more of a threat in the passing game, so an optimistic view of his second full season would be a modest increase in both rushing yards (from 1125 to 1400-plus) and receiving yards (from 316 to 500-plus). Two thousand-plus all-purpose yards isn't out of the question, which would put anyone in the Offensive Player of the Year conversation.
Neither player should be relied upon in any of the big yardage markets, but it's interesting to note that there seems to be a belief that Ridley will have a bigger season than Kirk. The latter legitimized the big contract the Jaguars gave him last year, and would seem to have a better chance at a big season.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
