To the victors go the spoils.
As such, the Super Bowl champion Chiefs get the honor of being the starting point for our 2023 season preparation. As we go team by team between now and the Hall of Fame Game, it makes sense to begin with a look at the favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII.
The Chiefs went 14-3 straight up in 2022 but continued a consistent trend over the Patrick Mahomes era. Kansas City's record against the spread was just 5-11-1. So, while it seems like a good idea to bet on the Chiefs to cover each week, it's wildly unprofitable. In fact, they're 19-29-1 ATS since winning their first Super Bowl as a group. At -110 prices, that would result in a loss of 12.9 units over the last three regular seasons.
Even a 2-1 ATS record in the playoffs last year spoke to some predictable circumstances. The Chiefs couldn't cover a big number in the divisional round against the Jaguars, but Mahomes' ankle injury depressed a line against the Bengals that would've normally been at least -3 in the AFC Championship Game, allowing Kansas City to cover with a field goal win.
The market thought so highly of the Chiefs that they were short favorites in their Super Bowl win over the Eagles - who had lost once all year with Jalen Hurts under center. With a second Super Bowl under Andy Reid's lengthy belt, there's no reason to believe the Chiefs are going to be underrated anytime soon.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | |
|---|---|
| Win total | 11.5 (-135) |
| Division | -160 |
| Conference | +350 |
| Super Bowl | +600 |
| Estimated rating | 75/100 |
A 75 out of 100 is the highest number we'll see for an estimated market rating, and it'll be up to the Chiefs if they can earn an 80 - the level of a clear-cut, historically great team.
Unfortunately, a -160 price to win the AFC West shows just what a deal last season's plus-money payout on the same bet was.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | KC -6.5 |
| 2 | @JAX | KC -3 |
| 3 | CHI | KC -9.5 |
| 4 | @NYJ | KC -2 |
| 5 | @MIN | KC -4 |
| 6 | DEN | KC -7 |
| 7 | LAC | KC -5.5 |
| 8 | @DEN | KC -3.5 |
| 9 | MIA | KC -5.5 |
| 11 | PHI | KC -3 |
| 12 | @LV | KC -5 |
| 13 | @GB | KC -5.5 |
| 14 | BUF | KC -3.5 |
| 15 | @NE | KC -4 |
| 16 | LV | KC -8.5 |
| 17 | CIN | KC -3 |
| 18 | @LAC | KC -2 |
They have some much-hyped opponents to start the season in the Lions and Jets, but even if those teams aren't what many hope, there's still plenty of meat on the bone that is the Chiefs' schedule. Sure, they're currently favored in every game this season, but unlike last season when they were projected as double-digit favorites three times and closed -10 or higher six times, the slate is tough enough that the Chiefs aren't double-digit favorites at any time, according to early lines.
What's to like about the Chiefs
Needing to go toward a depth-centric approach before last season - and the trade of Tyreek Hill - the Chiefs clearly have put forth a plan to fill holes on the defensive line (George Karlaftis, Felix Anudike-Uzomah) and at wide receiver (Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice). That said, they hope intel from their new backup quarterback will be critical to their success.
Former Tom Brady clipboard-holder Blaine Gabbert is now patting Mahomes' back, but he's told Reid that former Buccaneers left tackle Donovan Smith's rough last season was due to injury, and he should be back to his top-10 form at the position. With Smith on one side and Jawaan Taylor replacing Andrew Wylie on the other, relatively inexpensive options can keep the Chiefs where they need to be.
What's not to like about the Chiefs
Beyond the aforementioned matchups, a schedule that includes the Dolphins, Bills, and Bengals is loaded with big-time matchups before even looking within the division. Even cases for "easy wins" involve road matchups against the Vikings and Packers. It'll feel like the Chiefs are involved in the biggest game every week, but bettors have to pay a premium on Kansas City winning 12 games, and this team could be just as good as last year but finish 11-6 or 10-7.
If the players expected to plug the holes - Smith, Kadarius Toney, Isiah Pacheco - aren't able to stay healthy, and the other depth pieces don't pan out in bigger roles, then the Chiefs' great record in close games could regress.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | MVP | +700 |
| Offensive POTY | +3000 | |
| Most passing yards | +450 | |
| Most passing TD | +225 | |
| Travis Kelce | Offensive POTY | +4000 |
| Most receiving yards | +2200 | |
| Most receptions | +1100 | |
| Most receiving TD | +500 | |
| Isiah Pacheco | Most rushing yards | +5000 |
| Most rushing TD | +3500 | |
| Chris Jones | Defensive POTY | +3000 |
| Sacks | +2500 | |
| Nick Bolton | Defensive POTY | +10000 |
| Rashee Rice | Offensive ROTY | +4000 |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +1800 | |
| Felix Anudike-Uzomah | Defensive ROTY | +2000 |
| Andy Reid | Coach of the Year | +5000 |
Unsurprisingly, on top of being the favorite for MVP, Mahomes is also atop the oddsboard in the statistical markets, while Travis Kelce is the third choice for most receiving touchdowns. It's good news/bad news for Reid in the Coach of the Year market, as he's the biggest long shot. He's too good to get credit for working some sort of magic since he's already built a machine with the highest expectations in the league.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
