NHL Monday player props: McDavid to feast on Sharks
We have a small but fun five-game slate on the menu for Monday night. Let's take a look at a few of the best ways to attack it.
Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots (-145)
MacKinnon is shooting the lights out right now. He's gone over his total in six of the past nine home games, over which time he's averaged just under eight shot attempts per contest.
Of the three games he's gone under, two were against very structured, slower-paced teams in the Flames and Kraken. I don't think the Blackhawks fit those criteria.
Only two sides have conceded five-on-five shots at a higher rate than Chicago since the trade deadline. This is a very strong matchup for Colorado in that game state, and its elite power play can be expected to make noise against anybody. MacKinnon should generate plenty in all situations.
It's also worth noting the Blackhawks rank 31st in shots against per game to centers over the last 10. That's their worst ranking against any position.
Even juiced, I see plenty of value in backing MacKinnon at home in this spot.
Kris Letang over 2.5 shots (-125)
Letang continues to fire from anywhere and everywhere on home ice. The veteran Penguins blue-liner ranks third in shot attempts (81) across the entire NHL over his past 10 home games.
The only two players who rank ahead of him, Jason Robertson and Roman Josi, always have shots lines set at 3.5, and they're often juiced toward the over. Yet Letang is priced at 2.5.
Letang has hit in eight of his last 10 in Pittsburgh and attempted no fewer than five shots in any of those games. He's generating enough volume to get the job done every single night.
Although the Senators are a competent defensive side in preventing shots, their numbers are much worse on the road. I think they can be had; expect Letang to generate his fair share of shots.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots (-115)
I love, love, love, McDavid in this spot. Love him. He's gone over his shot total in 66% of his games this season, including a ridiculous 74% hit rate on home ice.
If we isolate the last 20 home dates, he's registered at least four shots on 16 occasions, falling one shy in all of the exceptions. He's cooking.
Now a scorching-hot McDavid draws a putrid Sharks team that's seen the bottom fall out since the deadline. San Jose has won only once in eight tries, its five-on-five numbers have plummeted, and the team has been taking a ton of penalties.
I don't think the Sharks have the depth or defensive prowess to hold up at five-on-five. Their recent tendency to parade to the box should also serve McDavid well considering he leads the Oilers in power-play shots this season.
There's a ton to like about McDavid in this spot. Quite frankly, I think this price would be better served attached to 4.5 shots, not 3.5.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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