NHL Tuesday best bets: McDavid, Oilers to make noise vs. Avalanche
Headlined by a battle between two Western Conference powerhouses, we have an exciting 10-game slate Tuesday night. Let's dive into a few of the best ways to attack it.
Oilers (-115) @ Avalanche (-105)
The Oilers are the hottest team in hockey. They've posted an absurd 9-0-1 record over the past 10 games and put themselves firmly in contention for the top spot in the division (and conference) as a result.
Their numbers during this hot stretch have been nothing short of remarkable. Edmonton is controlling better than 55% of the expected goals share and 57% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five.
Dominating at even strength to such an extent makes the Oilers almost impossible to beat given the caliber of their special teams. The power play continues to fire on all cylinders - no team has netted more PP markers the past 10 games, or all season - and they own a positive goal differential while shorthanded over the same stretch.
As dangerous as the Avalanche are, I think they're getting a little too much respect in this spot. They are missing a ton of key pieces - Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Artturi Lehkonen, Bowen Byram, etc. - while facing a star-studded team playing as well as anybody.
Call me crazy, but I have concerns about a defense that features Jack Johnson, Brad Hunt, and Kurtis MacDermid holding up against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the high-flying Oilers.
Look for arguably the league's most in-form team to grab another crucial two points.
Bet: Oilers (-115)
Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-130)
Hughes is enjoying a truly fantastic season in every sense of the word. The most important sense for our purposes, though, is the shot-prop market. We've frequently targeted him, and he's consistently gotten the job done. Hughes has registered at least four shots on goal in 63% of his games, including a whopping 69% on home ice.
Hughes averages seven shot attempts per game in New Jersey, which is a healthy rate to begin with. His numbers have risen even higher recently to 7.7 over his past 10 home dates.
In that span, he has gone over the number against teams like the Maple Leafs, Lightning, Wild, and Hurricanes. It doesn't much matter who the Devils are playing; Hughes simply gets the job done.
I expect that to be the case once again Tuesday night against the Sabres. They play a fast-paced, high-event brand of hockey that tends to bring out the best in offensive players. They were in action last night, so fatigue could be a factor. It's also worth noting Buffalo ranks bottom five in shots allowed to centers over the past 10.
This is a really good spot for Hughes to get involved offensively, and he should be looking to take every available chance since he's four points shy of becoming the Devils' first-ever 100-point player.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots (-120)
Unless he's facing top-tier shot-suppression teams like the Hurricanes and Kings, I'm always looking to back McDavid at 3.5 shots. He simply has so much of the puck and spends so much time in the offensive zone that the opportunities will always be there.
McDavid has gone over this total at a healthy 64% clip this season. If we assumed all opponents were neutral and his chances of hitting were exactly 64% each night, that would imply -178 odds, which are obviously a lot higher than we have here.
McDavid has enjoyed success against the Avalanche this season, picking up four shots and a point in each meeting. With the Oilers still fighting for home ice - and a division title - he should see a full workload and then some. Expect the league's best player to take advantage.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.