NHL weekend best bets: Islanders to stay hot in Detroit
We have a quiet two-game slate Friday night to ease us in before a whopping 14-gamer Saturday.
Let's take a look at a player prop and a pair of sides worth backing for the action ahead.
Martin Necas over 2.5 shots (-115)
Nov. 4, 7 p.m. EST
Necas is in the midst of a nice little shooting streak. He played five games in a row against average and below-average shot-suppression teams and took advantage in a big way.
Necas recorded at least three shots four times in that span while averaging over four per game.
Although the Buffalo Sabres are a much-improved team this season, they can still be attacked for shots. They give up quite a few at five-on-five - especially on the road - and Necas is one of the Carolina Hurricanes' biggest threats in that game state.
In fact, Andrei Svechnikov is the only forward on the team generating five-on-five shots at a higher clip.
With the Sabres on the road and still missing a few of their regulars on defense, I like Necas' chances of staying hot.
Islanders (-125) @ Red Wings (+100)
Nov. 5, 1 p.m. EST
It took some time, but the New York Islanders are starting to hit their stride under new head coach Lane Lambert.
They're tied for sixth in the NHL in wins over the last eight games and are showing an offensive pulse we haven't seen in years. New York's averaging 3.06 goals per 60 at five-on-five - among the league's highest rates - and is full value for it.
The Islanders generated 3.09 expected goals per 60 in that time, which slots them sixth - ahead of teams like the Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Boston Bruins.
While New York does give up its share of chances, it can play more freely and take chances to create since Ilya Sorokin - one of the best goaltenders in the world - is there to bail the team out when needed.
The Detroit Red Wings are playing very pedestrian hockey. They're missing two of their best forwards - Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana - and their lack of depth is showing.
Over the last eight games, the Red Wings controlled just 42% of the expected goal share at five-on-five. That ranks them ahead of only the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, and Philadelphia Flyers - four teams destined to be basement-dwellers this season.
The Islanders should be able to control the run of play and generate more than their fair share of chances. With the Wings lacking scoring depth and Sorokin in fine form, I expect the Isles to record a sixth straight win.
Bet: Islanders (-125)
Flyers (+135) @ Senators (-175)
Nov. 5, 7 p.m. EST
While the Ottawa Senators dropped four games in a row and own a disappointing 4-6-0 record, they're playing better than the results suggest.
At five-on-five, they've won the high-danger chance battle seven times and controlled nearly 55% of them for the season. That puts them eighth in the NHL - pretty good.
It hasn't translated into wins yet, but the points should come if they continue to generate more grade A looks than their opponents, especially with the firepower they possess up front.
I don't think it'll be easy - the Flyers consistently stay in games they have no business being in – but I like the Senators to get back in the win column Saturday night.
Simply put, the Flyers continue to be cratered in the shot and chance department on a nightly basis. Carter Hart bails them out time after time, but winning with a 34.63% high-danger chance share simply isn't sustainable.
Hart is much more likely to slow down than the Flyers are to flip the switch and play strong five-on-five hockey - they simply don't have the talent - so I'm going to continue to fade them.
Will Hart's regression begin Saturday? That's anybody's guess, but it is coming, and the Flyers will lose a lot of games playing this way when that happens.
Expect the Senators to dominate the run of play. With the likes of Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson in the top six, Ottawa has more than enough firepower to capitalize.
Bet: Senators in regulation (-105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.