Imagine you get your dream job, one of 32 such positions on the planet. You have to take over an organization whose components - both good and bad - are largely static due to commitments, contractual obligations, and availability of resources, so you have to make decisions based on what you've got to work with. That's what the Chargers tasked Brandon Staley with going into his first year as head coach.
Los Angeles missed the playoffs largely because of a handful of high-leverage plays where Staley played the odds, repeatedly pushing his chips into the middle of the table only to frequently see the dice land the last way he'd hoped.
What does the market think of Staley's analytics-based hyper-aggressive approach following a robust offseason that addressed the inherited issues?
2022 Season odds
| Market | Odds (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.0 (-135/+115) |
| Division | +220 |
| Conference | +750 |
| Super Bowl | +1400 |
Despite more continuity at key organizational positions, L.A.'s win total is the same as the new-look Broncos, with the team's pricing just a shade shorter than its division rival's across the main markets.
Schedule outlook
| Week | Opponent | Lookahead line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | -3.5 |
| 2 | @KC | +3 |
| 3 | JAX | -10 |
| 4 | @HOU | -8 |
| 5 | @CLE | N/A |
| 6 | DEN | -3 |
| 7 | SEA | -8.5 |
| 9 | @ATL | -6.5 |
| 10 | @SF | PK |
| 11 | KC | -1.5 |
| 12 | @ARZ | -1.5 |
| 13 | @LV | PK |
| 14 | MIA | -5.5 |
| 15 | TEN | -5 |
| 16 | @IND | -1 |
| 17 | LAR | -1.5 |
| 18 | @DEN | PK |
The Chargers' schedule is not messing around right away, as they take on the Raiders and Chiefs within five days. After a Week 8 bye, they should be decent-sized favorites in four of their final 10 games, with the other six matchups being coin flips.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
You already know about Justin Herbert and the throws he's capable of making. The Chargers' quarterback has yet to hit his ceiling, passing touchdowns to a dozen different players in his two campaigns without much of a traditional running game to lean on. The offensive line revamp that began before last season with the drafting of already-outstanding Rashawn Slater continued in April with Zion Johnson's addition at guard.
Staley knew the Chargers' fatal flaw - their defense. He knew voluntarily punting the ball back to the opponent would likely end badly. So he leaned on Herbert and went for it on fourth down when most wouldn't - particularly those with an old-school mindset. Cue this offseason's changes.
Utilizing the large piece of the salary cap pie that would normally go to a top-tier quarterback, the Chargers used the money they've saved from having Herbert still on his rookie deal to go shopping. Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson, Bryce Callahan, and Sebastian Joseph-Day join Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and other highly-drafted youngsters in the hopes that a defense this stacked can't fail.
Weaknesses
If a traditional running game is still critical to success, then the Chargers need to improve. If they call so many runs that it's critical, that'll be a weakness. However, Staley knows that calling runs merely establishes on-field physicality over efficiency.
Maybe a bolstered defense doesn't pan out. Mack, on his third team - a usual red flag in the NFL - might not be able to play a 17+ game season, at which point, Staley's game of analytical roulette will leave L.A. vulnerable to short-term variance. Going for it on 4th down and not succeeding is easier to swallow when the defense can bow up to get the ball back.
Opportunities
We know what to expect of the other highly-rated teams, but in just the third year of Herbert, the second year of Staley, and the tangible roster adjustments, there's a greater chance that this team surprises and reaches rare heights. For example, a 13-4 season is in play, clearing their prescribed win total by three (or more).
Threats
High expectations with little in the way of proven previous success is often a bad recipe for bettors. While we try not to believe in mystique or curses, the Chargers franchise has long been a candidate for Murphy's Law - anything that can go wrong will go wrong.
From a micro standpoint, the Chargers' defense appeared to hinge on James' availability against quality offenses. The 2021 season may have ended differently had the team closed out an overtime loss to Kansas City. That game fell apart at halftime when James exited with an injury, leaving Travis Kelce to have his way in the L.A. secondary.
How to bet the Chargers
It's an unusual combination, but Staley's hot-button decision-making last season - along with the high expectations going into this year - means it will be very hard for him to win Coach of the Year. Herbert, listed at +1000 for MVP, will get the most credit for a big Chargers season, but those odds are short since he's also favored to lead the league in passing yards.
Mike Williams (+2500) is an interesting option to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Herbert's big target had nine touchdowns last year despite catching just seven red zone targets.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
