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Drafting rookies in fantasy hockey isn't as simple as just blindly following the real-life draft board. While NHL teams make their decisions based on projected long-term success, fantasy owners should only care about the upcoming season. The most talented rookie isn't always the best draft commodity, as his production is going to depend on opportunity and those around him.
Players also don't enter the league at the same time. Some will play several extra seasons in Europe, junior hockey or the American Hockey League before being given a full-time opportunity with the NHL club. Mostly goalies and defensemen will take a little longer to develop, while basement-dwelling teams may elect to leave younger players in a minor league a little longer.
Here are the top rookies to target for re-draft leagues in your 2016-17 fantasy hockey draft:
The sure things
| Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Patrik Laine | RW | WPG |
| Auston Matthews | C | TOR |
| Jesse Puljujarvi | RW | EDM |
While drafted in the order of Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi - with the Columbus Blue Jackets selecting C/LW Pierre-Luc Dubois at No. 3 - Laine jumps ahead in terms of projected 2016-17 performance. Everything went wrong for the Jets last season, causing them to fall from a playoff team in 2014-15 to the second-overall pick in the draft. Laine have a shot at top-six role.
Matthews showcased his phenomenal talent at the World Cup of Hockey, but he'll face reality in Toronto where, instead of playing with the likes of Connor McDavid and Johnny Gaudreau, he'll skate with lesser young talent or a motley crew of veterans. He should reach 60 points, but he's much more likely to produce a lower number than one higher.
Next best
| Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | RW | CAR |
| Dylan Strome | C | ARI |
| Jimmy Vesey | LW | NYR |
| William Nylander | C/RW | TOR |
| Mathew Barzal | C/RW | NYI |
Aho has been described by Finnish hockey legend Teemu Selanne as better than both Laine and Puljujarvi. The high praise doesn't boost Aho over his other two countrymen, but it does boost him up the preseason rankings, nonetheless.
Aho scored 45 points in 45 games with Karpat of Finland's highest professional league as a 19-year-old last season. He'll play big minutes on a Hurricanes team bereft of an offensive star.
Strome is all but guaranteed a role within the Coyotes' top-six forward group, and he has a legitimate chance to overtake C Martin Hanzal for the first-line job. Vesey gets added to a crowded Rangers forward group. It may take him a while to showcase his talent and gain meaningful minutes. Expect a slow start but don't throw in the towel too soon.
Late-round value
| Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Provorov | D | PHI |
| Anthony Mantha | RW | DET |
| Julius Honka | D | DAL |
| Pavel Zacha | C | NJ |
Mantha should be given a top-six role in Detroit, skating alongside either C Dylan Larkin or Frans Nielsen. He has put up 78 points in 122 AHL games.
Defensemen Provorov and Honka have plenty of offensive talent. Provorov was selected in 2015, while Honka was chosen with the 14th pick in the 2014 draft. He netted 44 points in 73 games with Texas of the AHL last season. Provorov posted a whopping 73 points in 62 games in what was most likely his final season of junior hockey. Both should see power-play time.
Long shots
| Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala | C | NAS |
| Mikko Rantanen | RW | COL |
| Mitchell Marner | C/RW | TOR |
| Zach Werenski | D | CLB |
| Christian Dvorak | C/LW | ARI |
Fiala is the only one in this group with the potential to play on a playoff team this season, but it also works slightly against him. Even if he makes the roster, he'll have an uphill climb for playing time, with the Predators being so deep at center. Ryan Johansen, Mike Fisher, and Mike Ribeiro are likely locked into the first three center spots, likely forcing Fiala to a wing.
Rantanen and Marner are much more likely to be provided top-six opportunities, but they will come on Avalanche and Maple Leafs team expected to fall well short of the postseason.
Keep an eye on them
| Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | G | NAS |
| Nick Schmaltz | C | CHI |
The Predators are expected to start the season with the goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Marek Mazanec. Saros, a fourth-round pick in 2014, will be the first to be called-up should either of the other two suffer an injury. He posted a .920 save percentage and 2.24 GAA in 38 AHL games last season. He projects as the goalie of the future in Nashville.
Here's a look at Chicago's projected forward group, per DailyFaceoff.com:
| LW | C | RW |
|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin | Artem Anisimov | Patrick Kane |
| Richard Panik | Jonathan Toews | Marian Hossa |
| Tanner Kero | Nick Schmaltz | Ryan Hartman |
| Andrew Desjardins | Marcus Kruger | Jordin Tootoo |
Beyond the top two lines top line, it's not great. Schmaltz could help save the group. The 20th overall pick in the 2014 draft, he spent the past two seasons at the University of North Dakota, where he posted 46 points last year. Should Panik prove ineffective, or the 37-year-old Hossa suffer an injury, he could be pushed into the top six. Pounce on him in either situation.
