DFS: The Return of the (Le'Veon) Bell Cow

DFS: The Return of the (Le'Veon) Bell Cow

Jason Bridge / USA TODAY Sports

Ahead of Week 2, much was made about the season debut of Patriots' running back/human bowling-ball LeGarrette Blount.

After sitting out New England's season opener with a suspension, DFS players were predicting that Blount would feature heavily in the Pats' offence. Bills head coach Rex Ryan went as far to downplay the role Week 1 standout Dion Lewis would play in the game, saying Lewis "is who he is. But I mean, come on. Blount is their guy."

Much to the chagrin of DFS players, Blount rolled over. It wasn't that the veteran RB looked lost on offense: he barely even made it into the game. He finished with just four yards on two carries; Lewis had 40 yards rushing, 98 yards receiving and a touchdown.

Le'Veon Bell rejoins the Pittsburgh Steelers this week under similar circumstances. The versatile fantasy superstar sat the first two games of the season with a suspension and he will step back into the starting RB slot having watched DeAngelo Williams turn back the clock.

Williams has captured the hearts of Steelers fans and early DFS investors alike with two vintage performances: 127 yards rushing on 21 attempts against New England and 77 yards on 20 attempts with three (!) touchdowns against the 49ers. Those stats would look good for any player and are even more astonishing when you consider that Williams' best season as a pro came back in 2008 with the Panthers.

While Williams and Bell haven't appeared in the same game yet, looking back at Bell's usage from his first two seasons in Pittsburgh doesn't create a lot of optimism that Pittsburgh is interested in a RB committee going forwards.

Season Total Snaps Snap %
2014 677 64.4%
2015 927 83.4%

Predictably, Bells' usage exploded after a promising rookie season. He featured in significantly more of the Steelers' offensive plays and saw his share of the RB duties grow by 19 percentage points. His appearance on 83.4% of snaps with the offense trails only Matt Forte's 92.1% mark with the Bears - an elite comparison in terms of RB usage.

Over-use and fatigue has been directly linked to injuries, so it's incredible that Forte has been elite for so long without missing significant time. No team in the NFL can bank on an RB of that usage rate having a similar bill of health.

Bell still has two more years left on his rookie contract, so the Steelers are certainly hoping to maximize their use of him right through the 2016 season. With Williams in the fold and playing well, the Steelers will be able to reduce their reliance on Bell slightly while giving the offense a different look for a handful of plays a game.

Since coming into the league, Bell has never split carries with another player who played on over 15% of the Steelers' snaps. Williams appears primed to change that. He isn't an elite short-yardage option but he has averaged 3.1 yards per carry on third/fourth and short for his career; Bell averages 4.1 yards in that situation while also offering significantly better receiving ability.

That means is that Williams' time in the spotlight might be over for now. He'll see some snaps but if he's going to be priced like a low-end RB2, he is going to upset his buyers this week; he simply won't get the opportunities to rush 20 times a game. With Bell healthy and building on a stand-out season, it's his show now.

Williams will steal a scene once in a while but probably won't win an Emmy for Best Supporting Actor in a Fantasy Lineup. He lacks the predictability required of a strong DFS play in all but the most desperate situations and his first two games with the Steelers' aren't indicative of his ceiling going forward.

St. Louis did an okay job mitigating the Seahawks' run game in Week 1, but made Matt Jones into a household name in Week 2 against Washington. Bell should have plenty of opportunities to return value on his high salary against a so-so run defense - and he can count on a handful of targets from Ben Roethlisberger to tack on the yardage.

Enjoy Williams' resurgence on television but keep him off your DFS team until his situation changes. We've probably seen the best of him in 2015.

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