Week 15 NFL Betting Preview: The Packers are human

Week 15 has arrived.

It's late in the season, which means the bye weeks are over and there is a full card to choose from. Unfortunately, this creates a lot of issues when trying to handicap the board. How much effort will teams that are already out of the postseason put in? How willing am I to lay extra points because a team needs to win its game? Add in the look-ahead spots and flat spots, and there are a lot of things to take into account. I've done my best to account for all of those factors, but I'm not entirely confident in this week's selections.

As always, I've linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats and other items of note for each game. The pick for the Monday Night Football game will be included in my Monday recap article, where I lament all of my boneheaded decisions from this preview.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Friday Consensus Line: Chiefs -10 -115, total of 41.5

The Pick: The Raiders upset the Chiefs in Week 12 to pick up their first win of the season, but unfortunately for Oakland, they don’t have the luxury of catching Kansas City on a short week in a look-ahead spot this time around. Oakland followed up that Week 12 victory by laying a complete egg in St. Louis the following week, and now it's in a similar situation following an upset victory over another hated rival. The Raiders presumably spent the entire week sipping margaritas, and I’m not sure they’ll be all that prepared for a Chiefs squad that desperately needs to get back on track.

With that being said, Kansas City still has some major issues. Alex Smith can't throw a ball more than 10 yards, Jamaal Charles is nursing a knee injury, and Andy Reid continues to defy logic with some of the worst game plans that the NFL has ever seen. The Chiefs have been gashed on the ground this season (4.9 yards per carry), and they'll find it difficult to slow down Latavius Murray, who is about a thousand times better than Darren McFadden. Oakland should give Kansas City a game, but this is an optimal spot for the Chiefs to get back on track. Chiefs 20, Raiders 9

The Wager: If Oakland wasn’t coming off of such a big victory, I’d consider the Raiders here. This line is inflated because the Chiefs need to win, but it’s hard to get behind a Raiders team that is averaging 11 points per game on the road this season, especially at an early start time. Pass

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -14 -105, total of 45

The Pick: The Jags have been much more competitive as of late, knocking off the Giants two weeks ago, and putting scares into the Texans and Colts before falling apart in the second half of those contests. That’s a good story and all, but Jacksonville simply isn’t very good. Baltimore allows the second-most passing yards per game in the league (267.2), but the Jags aren’t a team that can exploit the weaknesses in the Ravens’ secondary. Watching Blake Bortles play quarterback will make your eyes bleed. Bortles’ 10-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio is vomit-worthy, and it doesn’t help that he plays behind an offensive line that’s surrendered 19 sacks in the last four games.

Baltimore is at home here, which means you’re going to get to see home Joe Flacco on display. In other words, Flacco won’t look like he’s downed a gallon of vodka before the game. The Ravens have made a habit of destroying inferior opponents this season, and their offense has clicked since their Week 11 bye, averaging 32 points per game since. Sometimes it’s just as simple as one team being infinitely better than another.  Ravens 28, Jaguars 13

The Wager: I'm a sucker for double-digit underdogs but I never once considered Jacksonville here. I actually considered laying the points, but Baltimore is banged up and coming off of a couple of tough games. Pass

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Friday Consensus Line: Steelers -1.5, total of 55.5

The Pick: Pittsburgh grabbed a huge win in Cincinnati last week, which seems to have blinded everyone from the fact that the Steelers are garbage. Prior to last week’s victory, the Steelers had played three consecutive games where they were absolutely abysmal. Pittsburgh lost to the Jets in New York, barely eked by the Titans in Tennessee, and then lost at home to the Saints. And in case you’ve forgotten, Pittsburgh was destroyed in Cleveland and lost at home to the Bucs earlier this season as well. This team has a tendency to play down to inferior competition, and until that trend changes, I’ll continue to expect the worst out of the Steelers.

Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post an average rating of 100.3, the fourth-highest number in the league. That’s truly astonishing when you consider the quality of competition it has faced this year (Hoyer twice, road Flacco, McCown, Bortles, Fitzpatrick, Vick and Mettenberger).  The Steelers can’t generate any sort of pass rush whatsoever (24 sacks), and that means Matt Ryan, who thrives inside the Georgia Dome, will have all day to shred Pittsburgh's defense. Another Steelers piss job is on the horizon.  Falcons 31, Steelers 26

The Wager: I'm still wondering how the Steelers are favored. Both teams are deplorable defensively, but Atlanta’s offensive output at home exceeds Pittsburgh’s offensive output on the road. The status of Julio Jones is still in doubt, which prevents me from locking in this play now, but if Jones is in the lineup, I’ll gladly take Atlanta as a home dog. Falcons +??? (only if Julio Jones plays)

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

Friday Consensus Line: Colts -6.5 -115, total of 49

The Pick: Andrew Luck recorded his ninth fourth-quarter comeback and 12th game-winning drive at Cleveland last week. He may look like Lotney “Sloth” Fratelli from "The Goonies," but the kid can play. And it’s a good thing because Trent Richardson continues to prove why only Indianapolis fans drafted him in their fantasy football leagues this season. Houston’s giving up 264 passing yards per game. That doesn’t bode well in a matchup against one of the league’s top-ranked passing offenses. In their last meeting, Luck torched the Texans for 370 passing yards and three touchdown passes. 

The Texans are a mediocre 7-6, which is completely misleading when you consider that their wins have come against opponents whose combined record thus far is 23-55. Ryan Fitzpatrick followed up his six-touchdown performance with a monstrous 135-0-0 line at EverBank Field in Jacksonville last week. The Colts will stack the box and challenge the Harvard man to throw the ball, which is a recipe for disaster.  J.J. Watt has big shoulders, but he can only carry his team on them for so long, let alone continue to score touchdowns on both sides of the ball. Add a concussed Andre Johnson into the mix and the result is another Texans loss to the Colts.  Colts 30, Texans 17

The Wager: I'm very tempted to lay the points with the Colts, who always seem to steamroll inferior competition at home, but Houston's season is on the line here. There's just something that doesn't sit well with me here. Pass

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Friday Consensus Line: Browns -1, total of 44

The Pick: The Bengals are desperately clinging to the top of the AFC North, and they may not be there for long. A.J. Green had his best performance of the year a week ago, but he was matched up with old man Ike Taylor. Joe Haden, nearly a decade younger than Taylor, has had the upper hand in this matchup in the past, and figures to shut down Andy Dalton’s best weapon once more. Cincinnati has anointed Jeremy Hill as its new starting running back, and will look to establish the run, but the Browns have simply been dominant on defense at home.

Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you’re probably aware that the Browns are turning to Johnny Manziel this week. The Browns have been just awful over the last month. Brian Hoyer has looked like … Brian Hoyer. The loss to the Colts last week was a heartbreaker, but the Browns' offense played well outside of its horrible quarterback play, with receivers getting open on multiple occasions. Cincinnati’s defense is simply non-existent right now, so this looks like an ideal situation for a quarterback who is still a relative unknown to make his debut. Browns 23, Bengals 20

The Wager: I really like backing quarterbacks making their first start, but I’m not going to do it here. Honestly, I don’t think Manziel is going to be a very good pro, and I’m hesitant to fade the Bengals after a blowout loss. Pass

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Friday Consensus Line: Patriots -7.5, total of 48

The Pick: The Patriots have gone 10-2 since a surprising opening-week loss to the Dolphins. According to Bill Belichick, the Pats “didn’t do good enough” in that game. You can be certain the Patriots will be looking to exact their revenge on the Dolphins this week. With the Jets and Bills on deck, New England could very well finish the season at 13-3. The Pats' offense has cooled off over the last two weeks, but remains third in the league in points per game (30.85) behind only Green Bay and Indianapolis, and now they match up with a Dolphins defense that just hasn’t looked the same in recent weeks. Belichick must have been smiling watching game tape this week.

The Dolphins, who are used to warm temperatures in Miami at this time of year, will travel to Foxborough, where the weather forecast for Sunday is 41 degrees. They’re also coming off a crushing defeat to the Ravens, potentially derailing their playoff aspirations, and feature a dink-and-dunk offense that hasn't been very effective in recent weeks. The Dolphins' familiarity with the Pats may keep this game close, but the Pats are like Hansel - so hot right now. Patriots 27, Dolphins 21

The Wager: I have no interest in betting against the Patriots unless I feel like I'm getting an obscene amount of points. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Dolphins keep this close (or possibly even win outright), but I'd rather look elsewhere. Pass

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Friday Consensus Line: Panthers -3 -125, total of 41.5

The Pick: Just when things were starting to look up for the Panthers, Cam Newton gets into a car accident resulting in two transverse process fractures in his lower back. I’m no doctor, but I’m pretty sure that means Derek Anderson will be under center versus the lowly Bucs in Week 15. Even with a pathetic 4-8-1 record, the Panthers could actually win the NFC South (which is even more pathetic). Anderson already defeated the Bucs back in Week 1, so this isn’t foreign territory for Carolina. Jonathan Stewart has also provided a much needed threat in the running game since his return from injury.

Good teams find a way to win, and bad teams find a way to lose. The Bucs are the most competitive bad team in the league, and they lose by giving the ball to the other team. The Bucs have 31 giveaways this season, and Lovie Smith just smiles like a jackass after each and every one. With the Panthers' pass offense coming up against the Bucs' pass defense, this is a classic case of the movable object versus the resistible force. I'm sick of writing about this. Panthers 20, Buccaneers 16

The Wager: I was hoping to play Tampa Bay as an underdog this week, but that was before Newton's accident. I don't see much value on either side now. Carolina is the slightly better squad, which puts this line exactly where it should be. Pass

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

Friday Consensus Line: Giants -6.5 -115, total of 47

The Pick: This isn’t much more than two basement dwellers in the NFC East trying to maintain whatever bit of pride they might have left. Both teams are plagued with injuries, and neither really has anything to play for. The Giants ended a seven-game losing streak last week when they dismantled the Titans and will look to repeat the beating they laid on the ‘Skins back in Week 4. Unfortunately, with Eli Manning under center, the Giants are capable of crapping the bed in any given week.

Sadly for the Redskins, Colt McCoy is the best option at quarterback at the moment, and will likely play on Sunday. Two weeks ago, McCoy put up phenomenal numbers, throwing for nearly 400 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Colts. He followed that up with less than 200 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in a shutout loss to the Rams. The Redskins will be much better off running the ball as Alfred Morris ranks seventh in both rushing yards (899) and rushing TDs (7). This is a more competitive (and certainly winnable) matchup for the Redskins against a miserable Giants team that is riding high off beating one of the worst teams of the last decade. Redskins 23, Giants 20

The Wager: I may be in the minority, but I don’t think the Redskins have mailed it in. Washington has been competitive away from home this season, and the Giants are two weeks removed from losing outright to the Jaguars. This number is too big. Redskins +7 (there are 7s  available across multiple books right now)

Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills

Friday Consensus Line: Packers -4, total of 50.5

The Pick: The way the Packers have been playing lately, it’s no surprise that they’re the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers has been lights out of late, throwing for 1,560 yards, 16 touchdowns and no picks since the Packers’ Week 9 bye. The Pack have averaged over 40 points per game in a five-game win streak that has propelled them to the top of the NFC North, yet they are only a game up on the 9-3 Lions. Green Bay enters on a short week and has been a very different team on the road (3-3), especially struggling against opposing teams with strong pass rushes.

At 7-6, the Bills are still alive in the playoff race. But, with three of their final four games of the year against the Broncos, Packers and Patriots, the Bills have much to do to become the final team in the league to play a playoff game in the 21st century. With that being said, the Bills rank fifth in the league in total team defense and second in the league in opponents' quarterback ranking. Last week they held Peyton Manning to 173 passing yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Buffalo's defense can pose the same type of problems that have plagued the Packers against other strong defenses this season. Bills' defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is very familiar with the Packers from his coaching days in Detroit and I believe that this is the perfect spot for a Packers let down. Bills 26, Packers 24

The Wager: I've been fading Green Bay on the road this season and it’s worked out fairly well. I'll be doing the same again this week, especially with Buffalo's season on the line. Bills +4 (this is the best number available now but wait until game time to bet it, as the public will be pounding the Packers)

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Friday Consensus Line: Lions -7, total of 41.5

The Pick: With six teams in the NFC at 9-4 or better, the Vikings are all but eliminated from the playoffs.  Teddy Bridgewater and his cast of nobodies have held their own, but consecutive close losses to division rivals in weeks 11 and 12 really hurt. Matt Asiata has not been able to fill the void left by Jerick McKinnon, who was filling the void left by Adrian Peterson. The Lions have the best run defense in the league, so the Vikings will have to throw the ball. Greg Jennings will need to use a mouth guard to protect his dentures as it's going to be a rough day if Bridgewater is asked to air it out continuously.

The Lions, on the other hand, hold their fate in their own hands. Three straight wins to close the year would clinch the NFC North. The Lions manhandled the Vikings in their first matchup, and that was without Calvin Johnson or Reggie Bush. Megatron has been an absolute beast in the Lions’ last two games, totaling 19 receptions for 304 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions have all the makings of a fringe Super Bowl contender, including a kicking team that was horrendous to start the year but has improved since the signing of Matt Prater. The Vikings are long overdue for another whipping. Lions 24, Vikings 6

The Wager: The Vikings will likely be the "professional side" here, but I don't really care. Detroit is still being valued as if they were the team from a month ago, unable to score points. That's no longer the case with the returns of Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush. Lions -7

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans

Friday Consensus Line: Jets -3 +100

The Pick: Two big losers square off at LP Field in what is probably the worst game of the year - I’d rather be forced to watch a full season of "Gilmore Girls." Both teams have lost 11 of their last 12 games. No one thought the Jets would regret trading Mark Sanchez, but surely they do. Even Geno Smith misses Sanchez (lame, I know). The Jets are definitely the better losers in this game, with six of their 11 losses being by seven points or less, including their last two.

The Titans have dropped seven in a row, and may be handing the ball to Jake Locker. Locker came into last week’s game after Zach Mettenberger re-injured his shoulder on the Giants' fifth sack of the game. This represents a slight upgrade, as Locker is slightly less garbage than Mettenberger, who is a stage-five dumpster fire. Please God, don’t make me write about this anymore. Jets 27, Titans 17

The Wager: I wouldn't bet this game with my worst enemy's money. Pass

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Friday Consensus Line: Broncos -4, total of 50.5

The Pick: It’s been a streaky year for the Chargers, who, despite having a tough schedule, remain in playoff contention. Back-to-back matchups against Brady and Manning are likely to leave a streak somewhere else for a number of Chargers defensive players. With upcoming games against the Niners and Chiefs, the Chargers could find themselves watching the playoffs from the comfort of Philip Rivers' house. This game won’t be a runaway though. The Chargers have been good against the pass lately now that their entire secondary isn’t in the infirmary, and they’ve also held opponents to 108.4 yards per game on the ground.

A win for the Broncos would clinch the top spot in the AFC West. The Broncos have won three straight, despite Peyton Manning being held to less than 200 passing yards in his last two games. That’s not a problem when C.J. Anderson scores three touchdowns though. At the end of the day, only one thing matters to Peyton: Wheaties. In all seriousness though, there are only a few guarantees in life - death, taxes and Manning playing well after a poor performance. In case Manning didn’t already have enough weapons at his disposal, Julius Thomas could return this week. That’s too much for the Chargers to overcome, even at home. Broncos 28, Chargers 24

The Wager: My predicted outcome falls on the number that's being offered right now. I can understand the allure to bet on San Diego, but I just can't bet against Manning after a stinker. Pass

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -10, total of 38

The Pick: What could be more embarrassing than having the worst record in the league? Perhaps losing to that team, which is exactly what the Niners did last week. 49ers running back Colin Kaepernick tried to play pocket quarterback once again, and once again he failed. Everything’s falling apart in San Francisco. Their quarterback has a 16-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio and head coach Jim Harbaugh has accepted that he’s on his way out. The Niners are not statistically eliminated from the playoffs, but they need help, and a lot of it. This rivalry remains strong though, and had it not been for its abysmal offensive production, San Francisco would have a much better record. The 49ers' defense is holding opponents to 20.6 points per game and only 17 over the last six.

Speaking of low scoring, the Seahawks have been struggling on offense. Nevertheless, they’ve won three in a row and seven of their last eight. Defense continues to win games for the Seahawks, who are holding opponents to 18.1 points per game, good for second in the league. (Overrated) Russell Wilson continues to be a threat both in the air and on the ground, although this has not translated into touchdowns (hence the overrated comment). At 9-4, the Seahawks have plenty to do to make the playoffs, and it starts with a home win against a struggling Niners team, although San Francisco isn’t going down without a fight. Seahawks 17, 49ers 13

The Wager: I think San Francisco makes for a good buy-low candidate here. Will they win in Seattle? Probably not. But Seattle is spotting far too many points for a team that is offensively challenged. Hold your nose. 49ers +10

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Friday Consensus Line: Eagles -3 -125, total of 55

The Pick: This pivotal game will determine who has the outright lead in the NFC East, while the loser could find themselves outside of the playoffs. The last time these teams met, the Eagles threw the Cowboys a beating. Tony Romo, however, was not 100 percent in that game. The Cowboys are coming off of a long week of preparation and, incredibly, are 6-0 on the road this season. The Eagles have fared well in run defense lately, but there’s a good chance they’re beat down following games against DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch.

Mark Sanchez is 4-2 since replacing the injured pile of garbage Nick Foles. The Eagles are 6-1 at home, but all of those opponents presently own below .500 records. After a more traditional Sanchez performance last week, in which he passed for only 96 yards, we may see a bounce-back here against a terrible Cowboys secondary. But given the importance of this game, I still trust Romo more than the guy that once fumbled by running into an offensive lineman’s ass. Cowboys 28, Eagles 27

The Wager: As a Cowboys fan, I try my hardest not the let bias slip into this preview. I predicted that Philadelphia would beat Dallas on Thanksgiving, and I believe that this is the Cowboys’ game to lose. The Eagles played an extremely tough game against the Seahawks last week, while the Cowboys come in on extra rest. Cowboys +3

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year's WestGate SuperContest. Why did they pick me? I have no idea, but nevertheless, I am competing in it.

I have yet to finalize my picks for this week, but will be playing some combination of the games that I advised in my recommended wagers above. All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after the Friday night deadline.

Picks Summary

More NFL Betting Resources

Week 15 Staff Picks
Game Day Betting Update (Sunday)
Opening Line Report (Sunday)
MNF Betting Preview (Monday)