Betting odds for Super Bowl XLIX peg the Seattle Seahawks as favorites at 6/1. No team has repeated as champion since 2003-04, however, making the wise move to increase potential winnings by wagering on a team with longer odds.
Which teams are worthy of your dollars? Perhaps a better question is which teams aren't. Here are three teams Vegas lists as top-ten Super Bowl favorites that you should consider avoiding:
New England Patriots - 8/1
It's been nearly a decade since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady last hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, and poor drafting is largely to blame. While teams like the Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers were built by finding value in the draft, the Patriots have repeatedly wasted premium picks on junk - a list that includes Darius Butler (2nd round, 2009), Brandon Tate (3rd round, 2009), Taylor Price (3rd round, 2010) and Ras-I Dowling (2nd round, 2011).
Proving he still hasn't learned his lesson, Belichick produced yet another puzzling draft class this offseason. Most unforgivable was his choice to spend a second-round pick on a backup to Brady rather than an offensive complement.
Brady will again be asked to win a Super Bowl with an offense whose best pass-catchers are a gimpy Rob Gronkowski (if his body even makes it to the playoffs), Julian Edelman and Aaron Dobson. Is there any convincing reason to believe that unit can win a postseason battle with the high-flying Denver Broncos or any of the NFC's top teams?
Place your wager somewhere else.
Indianapolis Colts - 20/1
Andrew Luck has the look of a player who's a season away from being the NFL's undisputed best, and these odds suggest Vegas is fully aboard the bandwagon. One player isn't enough to win a Super Bowl, however, and Luck's emerging greatness won't mask the Colts' fatal flaws.
The Colts allowed 44 and 43 points to the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots, respectively, in last season's playoffs. There's no reason to believe this year's defense will be much better - especially considering Indianapolis' best player, edge rusher Robert Mathis, will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension and its most reliable defensive back, Antoine Bethea, departed in free agency.
The Colts have the NFL's easiest schedule in 2014. They certainly can repeat as champions of the embarrassingly weak AFC South, but they won't enter the playoffs as a battle-hardened team capable of surviving the gauntlet that is the road to the Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons - 25/1
Vegas odds tab the Falcons - a team that tied for the third-worst record in the NFL a season ago - as the ninth-most likely team to win the Super Bowl. It's baffling. The Falcons' biggest weakness a season ago was the team's complete lack of a pass rush. It will be this team's undoing again.
The Falcons did little to improve their pass rush this offseason, instead spending free agent dollars on run-stuffing 3-4 linemen Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai. A 32-year-old Osi Umenyiora remains the Falcons' best edge rusher, and the depth behind him is woeful.
You simply can't win a Super Bowl if you can't get to the opposing passer. Frankly, the Falcons will be lucky to make the playoffs in a division as competitive as the NFC South.
[Odds courtesy Bodog.com]
