NFL Saturday divisional bets: Can Allen carry Bills to AFC title game?

Wild Card Weekend was incredible. Not only were the games highly entertaining, but if you followed our picks, you made money.

Our trio of betting writers are in the midst of a playoff betting competition, where they started with $1,000 of play money and are trying to build the biggest bankroll through the postseason. All three of them made money in the wild-card round, with Brenden Deeg leading the way after profiting nearly $300 with a 9-5 record for the week.

Some argue the divisional round is the best weekend of football on the calendar. Only eight teams remain, all of which have a decent opportunity to win the Super Bowl and be crowned champions.

Let's get to our game picks, touchdown scorers, player props, and parlays for Saturday's two-game slate.

👉 Check out all of the markets available for Saturday's divisional games on theScore Bet here

Jump to: Bills-Broncos summary | 49ers-Seahawks

🏈 Pick: Bills ML (+100)

Deeg - Bet $110 to win $110

To beat Buffalo, you must take advantage of its poor run defense, and I don't see Denver doing so Saturday. Since J.K. Dobbins went down with a foot injury, the Broncos' rushing attack has ranked 22nd in EPA/play, while their running backs sit 25th in total rushing yards with a mediocre 3.8 yards per carry. RJ Harvey, whose 45.2% rush success rate ranks 51st out of 58 qualified running backs, isn't the same quality of rusher that Dobbins showed to be earlier in the year.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills' run game can succeed against the Broncos' defense, which has started to show cracks down the stretch. Following a terrific first half of the season, Denver's run defense ranked 16th in yards per carry allowed after Nov. 7, and the unit gave up 26-plus points to the Commanders, Packers, and Jaguars.

Bo Nix ranked 27th in success rate among 33 qualifying quarterbacks this year and first in pass attempts of 10 yards or less (432). That feeds into Buffalo's strength, as its defense finished third in EPA/dropback on that depth of target. I trust Josh Allen over Nix in this spot, and this is an excellent matchup for the Bills in their quest to return to the AFC Championship.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (-115)

Oshtry - Bet $75 to win $65.22

Allen ran for 14 touchdowns during the regular season and added two against the Jaguars last week. He often puts his body in harm's way as a rusher and in tush push situations, so backing him to score at this price is too good to pass up.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+275)

Deeg - Bet $25 to win $65

Let's go back to Kincaid, who scored a touchdown last week. The 26-year-old was third in yards per route run this season (2.67), behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. He's registered six scores in 13 contests, including the wild-card game, and faces a Broncos defense that ranked 25th in targets allowed and 23rd in receiving yards surrendered to tight ends. With the Bills being thin at wide receiver, expect a heavy dose of Kincaid in the passing game.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+325)

Patterson - Bet $20 to win $65

You'll soon find out that we love our chances of Nix using his legs in this contest, so getting him at +300 to cross the goal line seems like value. He's scored twice on the ground in his last five games (40% hit rate), while these odds suggest only a 25% chance of that happening Saturday. I'll bet that Nix is willing to put it all on the line in what could be the start of a Super Bowl run for the Broncos.

🏈 Bet: Over 29.5 passing attempts (-120)

Oshtry - Bet $60 to win $50

The only way Buffalo wins this game and eventually reaches the Super Bowl is if Allen plays hero ball, which he's done many times before, including in the wild-card round, when he threw for 273 yards on 35 attempts. The Broncos' defensive strength is stopping the run. Allen might be hurt, but the Bills will let him sling it all game.

🏈 Bet: Over 22.5 rushing yards (-120)

Oshtry - Bet $60 to win $50

The Jaguars didn't rely on the run as much as they should have against the league's worst run defense. Sean Payton won't make that same mistake. Instead of targeting a Broncos running back, let's ride with Nix, who often likes to take off as a rusher and will have plenty of open lanes versus Buffalo's defense. He's averaging 23.8 rushing yards over his last six contests.

🏈 Bet: Over 4.5 rushing attempts (-130)

Patterson - Bet $104 to win $80

I'll follow Oshtry's lead and back Nix in the running game. The Bills allowed the most rushes per game to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season (6.54), and Trevor Lawrence took off six times against Buffalo last week. Nix, who's rushed at least five times in three of his past four outings, knows he can't afford to turn the ball over and give Allen more possessions. Expect him to run more often than he attempts to throw it into tight coverage.

🏈 Bet: 4-leg parlay (+2160)

• Allen over 9.5 rushing attempts
• Nix over 6.5 rushing attempts
• Allen anytime TD
• Khalil Shakir over 5.5 receptions

Patterson - Bet $10 to win $215.97

I'll take a big swing on a four-leg parlay paying over +2000. Allen has surpassed 10 rushing attempts in two of his last four appearances, both of which were huge leverage contests, and his 14 rushing touchdowns were the third most in the league. Nix, meanwhile, has recorded seven or more rushing attempts in three of his last four outings. And Shakir caught 12 passes versus Jacksonville, not to mention Denver has given up big games to slot receivers in recent weeks.

Bills-Broncos summary

👉 Check out all of the markets available for Saturday's divisional games on theScore Bet here

Jump to: 49ers-Seahawks summary

🏈 Pick: 49ers +7 (-110)

Patterson - Bet $33 to win $30

This is a large spread for a playoff game between teams that are meeting for the third time this season. Yes, the 49ers are a hurt group and will certainly miss George Kittle's presence, but they have proven to be a resilient team that can overcome injuries.

I still can't trust Sam Darnold in a big game, and maybe I'll be proven wrong this week. However, this will be the third time 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has seen Darnold, and he'll likely hold the blueprint to make scoring a challenge. Seattle scored just 26 points combined in the two previous meetings. Covering seven points becomes much more difficult if you can only post 13 points on your opponent.

In Week 18, with the NFC West title on the line, the Seahawks held the 49ers to three points. I expect a much better plan of attack from Brock Purdy and Co. this time around, keeping this game within a converted touchdown.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (-105)

Patterson - Bet $52.50 to win $50

Smith-Njigba caught 10 touchdowns this season but has scored in just two of his last six games. I'm not backing him because he's due (which he is) but more so because the 49ers' secondary has given up huge games to receivers, such as Luther Burden III and Alec Pierce, neither of whom are on the same level as JSN.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+165)

Deeg - Bet $20 to win $33

Even in the 49ers' victory over the Eagles last week, they struggled against Dallas Goedert, who scored both of Philadelphia's touchdowns. San Francisco allowed the third-most targets and sixth-most scores to tight ends this year, and Barner has found the end zone in two of his last three games.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+325)

Oshtry - Bet $20 to win $65

Without Kittle, Purdy must look to his receivers more than usual. Robinson led the team in targets in the opening round and even caught a touchdown. With more targets coming his way, he's a touchdown threat once again.

🏈 Bet: Over 95.5 receiving yards (-115)

Oshtry - Bet $50 to win $43.48

The 49ers' defense allowed the most passing yards among all playoff teams. Attacking through the air is the formula for moving the ball against San Francisco. The Eagles' inept passing offense couldn't accomplish that, but that's more about Philly than the 49ers. Darnold's top weapon is Smith-Njigba, who averaged 105.5 receiving yards per game. He should put together another explosive outing versus a weak defense.

🏈 Bet: Over 74.5 rushing and receiving yards (-125)

Deeg - Bet $52 to win $41.60

Walker went off against the 49ers in the regular-season finale, recording 133 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. He's registered at least 74 total yards in five of his last eight games and received 14 or more touches in three consecutive contests. The Seahawks are finally realizing how important Walker is to their offense's success.

🏈 Bet: Over 19.5 pass completions (-125)

Oshtry - Bet $60 to win $48

Darnold averaged 19 completions on the season but that number was slightly higher over his last five games (20.4). We already discussed how injured and putrid the Niners' defense is, meaning the Seahawks will try to exploit it through the air, thus creating many opportunities for Darnold.

🏈 Bet: 4-leg parlay (+534)

• Purdy over 4.5 rushing attempts
• Purdy over 19.5 rushing yards
• McCaffrey over 5.5 receptions
• McCaffrey over 59.5 receiving yards

Patterson - Bet $15 to win $80.10

The 49ers' offense runs through Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, and both will have to carry a big load for the team to have any chance versus the Seahawks. Purdy ran nine times for 24 yards last week and took off six times for 28 yards the week prior. McCaffrey became a reception machine when Kittle missed time early in the year. Seattle's defense is very difficult to run on, so getting the ball in McCaffrey's hands with space on the outside is a logical strategy.

49ers-Seahawks summary

Odds and lines derived from theScore Bet sportsbook and are subject to change. Real money was not used to make these wagers on theScore Bet.

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