NFL draft No. 1 pick odds: Will Raiders select Mendoza or Moore?

The first 18 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft are set. The Raiders will select first overall, followed by the Jets, Cardinals, Titans, and Giants. Four of those teams will need to prioritize hiring a new head coach before shifting their attention to the draft. Las Vegas is officially on the clock, and it's pretty obvious which position the organization will focus on. The Geno Smith experiment was a failure, as he threw a league-high 17 interceptions and, at 35, is nearing the end of his career.

The Raiders need a quarterback for the future, and having Tom Brady, arguably the greatest signal-caller ever, involved in the decision-making gives them a unique advantage. Although this draft isn't quarterback-heavy, the choice will likely come down to two players.

🏈 No. 1 overall pick odds can be found on theScore Bet here

No. 1 overall pick odds

Coincidentally, the two favorites to go first overall will play each other in the College Football Playoff semifinal Friday night. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is considered the most NFL-ready prospect after leading the nation's top team.

He captured the Heisman Trophy this season, completing 72% of his passes for 3,172 yards. Mendoza also led the nation with 36 touchdown passes and consistently showcased his poise under pressure with game-winning drives throughout the year.

Mendoza exudes Ted Lasso energy every time he opens his mouth, a quality that can be either a positive or a negative, depending on who you ask. Still, he owns the intangibles necessary to thrive as an NFL quarterback. In a draft class that was once expected to have Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, and Drew Allar in contention for the top pick, Mendoza emerged as the nation's best signal-caller.

Meanwhile, in Oregon's quarterback-friendly system, Dante Moore threw 100 more yards than Mendoza and completed nearly the same percentage of passes. However, Moore threw fewer touchdowns (28) and more interceptions (nine). The Ducks signal-caller has uncanny arm talent but limited experience. His ceiling is likely higher than Mendoza's, but he'd be considered a project at the next level. In contrast, Mendoza offers a higher floor than any quarterback in the draft.

The odds heavily favor Mendoza, but respected mock drafts are split on the two prospects. Mocks for theScore, ESPN, and CBS Sports have the Raiders selecting Mendoza, while The Athletic and The Ringer believe Las Vegas will take Moore.

All of this assumes that both will declare for the NFL draft when their seasons conclude. Neither has officially committed, but it's presumed that Mendoza and Moore will enter the draft as top-five prospects. For now, they're focused on winning a national championship, and the Raiders are concentrating on finding their next head coach. A lot can change between now and April 23.

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