Fantasy: Best and worst pick in each of the first 10 rounds

Not every fantasy player is as valuable as their average draft position (ADP) suggests. These are the best and worst picks in each of the first 10 rounds of 12-team, half-PPR fantasy drafts.

Consensus ADP source: FantasyPros

Round 1

✅ Best pick: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (ADP 6.0)

Lamb's set to bounce back from a relatively underperforming 101/1,194/6 stat line with Dak Prescott returning to the lineup after missing nine games due to a hamstring injury in 2024. Lamb should also have a bit more space to operate in the secondary after the franchise added George Pickens as a legitimate WR2.

❌ Worst pick: Texans WR Nico Collins (ADP 11.0)

Collins is a great player when healthy, but he's struggled to stay on the field. He's missed multiple games each of the past two years, only playing in 12 contests in 2024. Add in the Texans' unproven offensive line potentially preventing Collins from working downfield and the Michigan product is a bigger gamble than drafters should take in the first round.

Round 2

✅ Best pick: Rams WR Puka Nacua (ADP 13.3)

Picking up Nacua in the second round should feel amazing. While he missed some time last year, Nacua played at least 75% of L.A.'s offensive snaps from Week 10 through Week 17 before being rested for the final week of the year. He had five 100-yard games and a pair of others that fell just shy at 97 and 98 yards, respectively, in his 10 games back from injury.

✅ Honorable mention: Raiders TE Brock Bowers (ADP 20.7)

Bowers was in contention for the best overall value in the second round, thanks to how far ahead he is compared to other tight ends, but he runs away with the title if you're playing in a tight end premium league. Only Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown had more receptions last season. Plus, Bowers received a big quarterback upgrade with Geno Smith's arrival this offseason.

❌ Worst pick: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (ADP 21.3)

Jackson's appearance here isn't a dig at his overall fantasy value or talent. The opportunity cost of taking a quarterback this high just can't be ignored. Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow can all be drafted over the next couple of rounds, never mind the plethora of capable signal-callers available even later.

Round 3

✅ Best pick: Bengals WR Tee Higgins (ADP 31.7)

Higgins set career highs in touchdowns (10) and receptions per game (6.1) last season, and his 75.9 yards per game almost matched his personal best of 77.9. And he did so despite being banged up and playing in only 12 games. The Clemson product will provide elite value if he stays healthier and puts up similar per-game production.

❌ Worst pick: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (ADP 30.3)

It's likely time to stop thinking of Hill as an elite fantasy asset. The 31-year-old speedster missed the Pro Bowl for the first time last season, fell short of 1,000 yards despite playing in every game, and scored his fewest total touchdowns with just six.

Round 4

✅ Best pick: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (ADP 39.7)

Death, taxes, and Mike Evans hitting 1,000 receiving yards every season. The 6-foot-5, 231-pounder should remain productive even if he falls a bit shy of the mark for the first time in his career. The wideout has recorded at least 11 touchdowns in four of the last five seasons.

❌ Worst pick: Saints RB Alvin Kamara (ADP 39.7)

Kamara will be lining up beside Spencer Rattler in New Orleans' backfield after the 24-year-old was named the franchise's starter Tuesday. Rattler played at least 60% of the team's offensive snaps in four games with Kamara last season. Three of Kamara's four worst rushing performances and two of his four worst receiving games came in those contests.

Round 5

✅ Best pick: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (ADP 52.3)

Mahomes threw six touchdowns against eight interceptions in the Chiefs' first six games last season but then tossed 20 scores against three picks over the next 10 contests. The Chiefs invested a first-round pick into left tackle Josh Simmons to improve their pass protection, which should help the two-time MVP start faster than in 2024.

❌ Worst pick: Broncos RB RJ Harvey (ADP 53.0)

It's hard to feel comfortable drafting a Broncos running back this high with the split between snaps for Harvey and J.K. Dobbins still to be determined. On top of that uncertainty, the Broncos were an average rushing team last year and didn't have anyone run for more than 513 yards.

Round 6

✅ Best pick: Lions WR Jameson Williams (ADP 62.0)

Williams is fresh off his first 1,000-yard season - a campaign that also saw him score eight total touchdowns. The speedster has the explosiveness to find the end zone on any touch and should command more than the 91 targets he got in 2024.

❌ Worst pick: Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson (ADP 63.0)

Hockenson returned from MCL and ACL tears in Week 9 of the 2024 campaign, but he didn't do much in his 10 appearances. He had the fewest receptions per game since his rookie season and one of the lowest yards per game marks of his career, and he failed to find the end zone even once. Hockenson may bounce back now that he's further removed from injury, but this ADP is rich given the risk, especially for a tight end.

Round 7

✅ Best pick: 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall (ADP 88.7)

Pearsall is set up for a true breakout season this year. The 2024 first-rounder scored touchdowns in the final two games of the last campaign, including a huge eight-catch, 141-yard performance in Week 17. The 49ers are also without Deebo Samuel now, and Brandon Aiyuk will miss time to start the year.

❌ Worst pick: Steelers RB Jaylen Warren (ADP 82.3)

We'll ignore Brian Robinson Jr.'s current ADP landing in this round as he's likely to keep slipping after being traded to the 49ers. Warren, however, has never played more than 69% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in any game and has eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards just four times in 48 career games.

Round 8

✅ Best pick: Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers (ADP 90.0)

Meyers eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in 2024 and has received help in multiple ways this offseason. Geno Smith is a big upgrade under center, Amari Cooper is a capable WR2 who will force defenses to respect him and give Meyers more room to work, and the running game should take a big step forward and open up more play-action looks for Meyers.

❌ Worst pick: Patriots WR Stefon Diggs (ADP 89.0)

Avoid Quinshon Judkins, who's also in this range, until his status has been clarified further. Avoid Diggs regardless. He's on the wrong side of 30 and coming off a serious injury. Diggs has also lacked some of his downfield explosiveness in recent years and joined a new team this offseason. Those are a lot of hurdles to overcome.

Round 9

✅ Best pick: Packers WR Matthew Golden (ADP 98.7)

The Packers investing a first-round pick into a receiver can't be ignored. Green Bay has lacked a true WR1 since Davante Adams' departure but may have found one in the 5-foot-11, 191-pounder. Jordan Love's arm talent and Golden's 4.29 speed are a perfect pairing.

❌ Worst pick: Giants RB Cam Skattebo (ADP 109.7)

Chris Godwin is another player currently with a ninth-round ADP, but that's largely due to injury. Skattebo, on the other hand, is a bit of a risky pick even when healthy. Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary could play ahead of him, and the Giants are unlikely to benefit from many run-first game scripts where Skattebo's talents shine most.

Round 10

✅ Best pick: Jets RB Braelon Allen (ADP 124.0)

Allen is a cheap investment at this point in drafts, but he has plenty of upside. New York's primary running back, Breece Hall, has been the subject of trade rumors on multiple occasions. New head coach Aaron Glenn has indicated the team plans to keep Hall, but that could change, and Allen has the build and talent to be the Jets' RB1.

❌ Worst pick: Cowboys K Brandon Aubrey (ADP 125.7)

Do not draft a kicker this early. You'll need one eventually, but taking one before the penultimate round is almost impossible to justify.

Andrew Dixon is a contributing fantasy analyst for theScore.