When the Vikings signed Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10-million deal in 2024, the former first-round pick hoped he could prove he still had what it took to be a reliable starter. Darnold made the most of his chance, leading Minnesota to a 14-3 record and earning Pro Bowl honors for the first time in his career.
That success turned into a $100-million contract with the Seahawks and, eventually, a Super Bowl ring.
With the 2026 season about to begin, there's no shortage of NFL players dreaming of following in those footsteps, though the stakes are higher for some. Whether it's a player on an expiring contract or someone who's running out of time to impress coaches, this will be a make-or-break year for several of the league's most recognizable names.
Here are 10 players with a lot on the line who need to put together a strong season in 2026:
C.J. Stroud, Texans
Stroud put together one of the best seasons ever for a rookie quarterback, posting 23 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a league-leading 273.9 passing yards per game in 2023. However, his TD total dropped over the next two years, and his interceptions have become a glaring issue. Those problems came to a head in January, when Stroud threw four picks in a 28-16 postseason loss to the Patriots - Houston's third consecutive divisional-round exit.
For a team with one of the NFL's most elite defenses, it's getting hard to stay patient with Stroud's steadily declining play. The Texans picked up the fifth-year option on his contract, leaving them with a massive "extend or don't extend" decision in 2027. If Stroud's play continues to show signs of corrosion, Houston could be ready to turn the page.
Deshaun Watson, Browns
Watson, 30, was once one of the NFL's brightest young stars, but his last Pro Bowl appearance came six years ago. Since then, the quarterback has been mired in scandal, with more than 20 women accusing him of sexual misconduct and assault. If not for a burdensome contract, the off-field issues, coupled with poor play on the field, likely would've ended his time in Cleveland. Releasing Watson right now would balloon his salary cap hit from $41 million to an unmanageable $127.2 million. But Watson's deal will automatically void in March 2027, and the Browns probably won't be sad to see him go.
Watson's chances of finding a new squad may depend on whether he can finally show signs that he can still be the player he once was in Houston or, at the very least, a functional quarterback.
Shedeur Sanders, Browns
The last time a Browns signal-caller started eight games in a season was in 2022, when Jacoby Brissett took the reins for 11 contests while Watson served a suspension. Although new head coach Todd Monken said his decision to make Watson the starter isn't "a week-by-week thing," Cleveland always seems to find itself playing musical chairs under center. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see Sanders get a chance to steer the ship this year.
While he's still just 24, Sanders' career outlook will look bleak if he can't impress in 2026. A rough year for Sanders and the Browns would likely leave the team in a position to take one of the top passers in the 2027 NFL Draft (Texas' Arch Manning or Oregon's Dante Moore, perhaps), which would spell the end of Sanders' time in Cleveland.
Bryce Young, Panthers
Young rebounded from a midseason benching in 2024 to play well down the stretch in his second NFL campaign. The former No. 1 overall pick carried that momentum into 2025 and threw for 3,011 yards and 23 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Though the upward trajectory gives Carolina reason for optimism, Young's numbers still leave plenty to be desired. His 188.2 yards per game last year ranked near the bottom of the league, and his 87.8 passer rating wasn't much better.
Young's improvement was enough to convince the Panthers to exercise his fifth-year option, but the team hasn't been eager to engage in extension talks. He'll need another step forward to give Carolina confidence that he's worth the premium rate of a top-flight quarterback.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
It's been a roller-coaster career for Mayfield, who went from No. 1 overall pick and Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up to a castoff traded away for peanuts by the Browns. After brief stints with the Panthers and Rams, Mayfield signed a one-year, $4-million deal to compete for the starting job in Tampa Bay a few years ago. Not only did he win that competition, but Mayfield rejuvenated his career with a Pro Bowl season and a playoff victory, earning him a three-year, $100-million extension with the Buccaneers.
While Mayfield rewarded the Bucs' faith with another Pro Bowl season, the sides couldn't reach terms on another extension after a rough end to 2025, which included seven losses over an eight-game stretch. Now the quarterback is betting on himself as he heads into a contract year with a point to prove his worth.
Kyler Murray, Vikings
After seven seasons and two Pro Bowl nods, the Cardinals cut ties with Murray in the offseason, opting to move forward with Jacoby Brissett instead. Now Murray will play the 2026 season with the Vikings on a one-year deal worth $1.3 million. But after beating out J.J. McCarthy for the starting job, he has a chance to follow in Mayfield's footsteps and turn his cheap deal into a significant extension.
Fortunately for Murray, he'll have a list of targets that includes Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson to help him make the most of his opportunity to shine. On the other hand, the Cardinals weren't exactly lacking talent during Murray's tenure, rostering players like DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Zach Ertz, and Trey McBride.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals
Harrison was one of the most hyped receiver prospects in years and wasted no time making a good impression in Arizona. In his second career game, he torched the Rams for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter alone. However, he's reached 100 receiving yards in only one game since. Last year, Harrison finished an injury-plagued season with 608 yards, while two of his teammates, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, both eclipsed 1,000 yards.
Now the stage is set for Harrison to have a breakout season under new head coach Mike LaFleur, who will likely lean on play-action to set up deep passes. That's a great situation for Harrison, but it also means he'll be squarely in the bust conversation if he can't make the most of it.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
The Jaguars appeared to have struck gold in 2024, as Thomas finished his rookie season with 1,282 yards (third-most in the NFL) and 10 touchdown receptions. But he couldn't recreate that success in Liam Coen's offense in 2025, recording 707 yards and two touchdowns. Thomas also shied away from contact on targets between the hash marks and struggled with drops.
The sharp decline, along with the arrivals of Travis Hunter and Jakobi Meyers in Jacksonville, has made Thomas' name pop up frequently in trade rumors. To date, the Jaguars have spurned outside interest and remain committed to developing Thomas. Could that change if Hunter, Meyers, and Parker Washington continue to be the more reliable options? Thomas returning to his rookie form would shut down that chatter.
George Pickens, Cowboys
Pickens showed glimpses of brilliance during his three seasons in Pittsburgh, but nothing like the stellar year he put together in Dallas. After arriving in an offseason trade, Pickens finished 2025 with 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns, earning Pro Bowl honors for the first time in his career.
With free agency looming, the Cowboys used the pricey franchise tag to keep Pickens around but couldn't reach an agreement on an extension in the summer. Like Mayfield, the veteran receiver will play the 2026 season with an opportunity to turn strong play into a massive payday.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, Giants
For the third time in five years, the Giants used a top-five draft pick to elevate their pass rush, adding Ohio State's Arvell Reese to a defense that also has former No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter. The odd man out could be Thibodeaux, the No. 5 pick in 2022, who may find himself on the trading block sooner rather than later.
Thibodeaux had 11.5 sacks in 2023, but he struggled with injuries and declining production in the next two years. He managed only 2.5 sacks in 10 games last campaign and will likely be on the second-team defense to start the new season. Still, there will be plenty of reps for Thibodeaux to show he's still got the juice to be a top-flight pass-rusher in the NFL, whether that's in New York or elsewhere.
Adam Stites is a contributing writer for theScore.
