Faces in new places: Season-long projections for big names who changed teams

Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones all made waves when they swapped uniforms last offseason. This year, it was big-name wide receivers who found new homes to complement the usual quarterback carousel.

Let's look at some of the stars who will don different jerseys in Week 1 - and their betting totals on ESPN BET and theScore Bet - for the 2025 season.

Aaron Rodgers

After contemplating retirement and watching the list of potential suitors dry up, Aaron Rodgers finally signed with the Steelers for what's expected to be his last NFL campaign.

Rodgers' stint with the Jets was underwhelming, but he did perform much better toward the end of last season. However, oddsmakers think his output will dip in Pittsburgh. The Steelers always lean heavily on their running game, and Rodgers' only reliable offensive weapon is DK Metcalf. It may take a while for the Steelers' offense to find its stride, and even when it does, Rodgers' stats may not benefit.

🏈Check out all season-long player props on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Geno Smith

Geno Smith was part of one of the pass-happiest offenses in the league last year. He attempted 578 throws, tossing for a career-high 4,320 yards with the Seahawks.

But that's expected to change with the Raiders. New head coach Pete Carroll will rely more on the running game, especially with Ashton Jeanty lining up behind Smith. Smith surpassed 3,500 yards in all three seasons in Seattle, but a new scheme will decrease Smith's production as a passer, and the betting totals reflect that.

Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson started 11 games for the Steelers last year after taking over for Justin Fields. Wilson will open this year as the Giants' starter, but will likely give the keys to the offense to rookie Jaxson Dart at some point.

Projecting his stats is so difficult that oddsmakers aren't posting lines for Wilson. He could lose his job after Week 1, or he could lead the Giants to a bunch of wins and never give up the starting gig.

Sam Darnold

No quarterback is predicted to have a bigger decline in production than Sam Darnold. The new Seahawks' signal-caller is expected to throw for roughly 1,000 fewer yards and 15 fewer touchdowns.

Darnold enjoyed a fantastic environment for quarterbacks in Minnesota. Head coach Kevin O'Connell finds success with whoever he has under center, and being able to rely on Justin Jefferson to get open is the best safety net a quarterback could ask for.

Darnold will have much less support in Seattle and may have a tough time living up to the $100.5-million contract he signed in free agency.

Justin Fields

Justin Fields started six contests for the Steelers last year, throwing for 1,106 yards and five touchdowns. In his two prior seasons with the Bears, when he started 13 and 15 games, he threw for 2,562 and 2,242 yards, respectively.

Fields' 2,450.5 total is the lowest offered on any starting quarterback in the league. Oddsmakers think the Jets will run the ball more than any team in the league, with Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and Fields contributing on the ground. However, Fields had campaigns with 16 and 17 passing touchdowns, and Garrett Wilson is a great receiving option that could help Fields cross this total with ease.

🏈Check out all season-long player props on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Davante Adams

Davante Adams was traded to the Jets in the middle of last season to play with Rodgers. He racked up 854 yards with seven touchdowns in a campaign split between New York and Las Vegas.

He's now in a far better situation with the Rams. When healthy, Matthew Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and Puka Nacua will draw defensive attention away from Adams. His 900.5-yard total and seven touchdowns feel very low for a wideout who's produced wherever he's played, especially since he's now a part of one of the league's best offenses.

DK Metcalf

The Seahawks refused to give DK Metcalf a new contract and traded him to the Steelers, where he immediately signed a four-year, $132-million deal.

He played 15 contests for Seattle last year, sharing target competition with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. If he can build a rapport with Rodgers early, his 925.5-yard total could be easy to surpass, even if the Steelers don't throw the ball much.

George Pickens

George Pickens was disgruntled in Pittsburgh, and his numbers reflect that. The Steelers couldn't figure out how to get the most out of their 2022 second-round pick.

Pickens can certainly fulfill his potential in Dallas. He complements CeeDee Lamb perfectly, and the Cowboys will be forced to throw the ball a ton since they're expected to have one of the league's worst defenses. His overall production should therefore increase, making his current totals seem very low.

🏈Check out all season-long player props on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Deebo Samuel

The Commanders took a risk by acquiring Deebo Samuel, who turns 30 in January, from the 49ers in the offseason. The aging wide receiver fought off pneumonia and dealt with calf and rib injuries last year.

Still, Samuel should be a key contributor to the Commanders' offense. He has surpassed 650.5 yards in every season he's played 15 games or more. This total accounts for injury risk but is low enough to be achievable even if he misses a handful of games.

Cooper Kupp

The Rams, especially head coach Sean McVay, loved Cooper Kupp. The fact that they let one of their best receivers ever walk in free agency is alarming.

Kupp moves to a far worse situation in Seattle. Going from Stafford to Darnold is a major downgrade, and the Seahawks offense won't score nearly as much as the Rams' offense did. Kupp has played less than 13 games in three consecutive campaigns, a sign he's wearing down. But he'll have to stay healthy to eclipse these season-long totals.