NFL playoff picture odds: Who's in, who's out with 5 weeks remaining
The playoff picture is taking shape in both the AFC and NFC.
The elite teams in each conference have separated themselves from the pack to leave behind wild-card races that look as wide open as ever, and the odds at theScoreBet indicate exactly that.
Eight teams in the AFC - ignoring the Dolphins, Ravens, Chiefs, and Jaguars - are still in the wild-card race, although the Chargers and Bengals have a lot of work to do to punch their ticket.
Odds for AFC teams to make, miss playoffs
| Team | To Make (Implied Prob.) | To Miss (Implied Prob.) |
|---|---|---|
| Texans | -350 (77.8%) | +280 (26.3%) |
| Browns | -185 (65.5%) | +155 (39.2%) |
| Colts | -190 (65.5%) | +160 (38.5%) |
| Steelers | -135 (56.5%) | +115 (46.5%) |
| Broncos | +320 (23.8%) | -400 (80%) |
| Bills | +380 (20.8%) | -500 (83.3%) |
| Chargers | +750 (11.8%) | -1200 (92.3%) |
| Bengals | +900 (10%) | -1600 (94.1%) |
Odds via theScore Bet
The Texans and their 7-5 record are hot on the heels of the AFC South-leading Jaguars but currently sit outside the final wild-card spot. However, oddsmakers believe they have a better chance of making the postseason than their competitors.
While this is largely due to the incredible play of Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud, the Texans' remaining schedule is also favorable. They play the Jets in Week 14, followed by the Titans twice, the Browns, and the Colts in Week 18, which could be a do-or-die game for both teams.
The Bills, who were one of the few Super Bowl favorites at the start of the year, find themselves in unfamiliar territory going into December. Their 6-6 record has them at +380, an implied probability of only 20.8%, to make the playoffs. Buffalo is only one game out of a wild-card spot, so its longer odds are more of a reflection of the daunting schedule remaining.
The Bills are on the road to face the Chiefs in Week 14, host the Cowboys in Week 15, then finish the season on the road in Miami. They will likely need to win two of these games - in addition to beating the Patriots and Chargers - if they want to make the playoffs for the fifth straight season.
Turning our attention to the NFC, there are seven teams still in the thick of the wild-card race with odds shorter than +250, or better than a 30% chance, of making the playoffs. That doesn't include the Eagles, 49ers, Lions, and Cowboys, who are nearly locks to make it.
Odds for NFC teams to make, miss playoffs
| Team | To Make (Implied Prob.) | To Miss (Implied Prob.) |
|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -225 (69.2%) | +190 (34.5%) |
| Packers | -215 (68.3%) | +180 (35.7%) |
| Vikings | +115 (46.5%) | -135 (57.4%) |
| Rams | +150 (40%) | -175 (63.6%) |
| Seahawks | +210 (32.3%) | -250 (71.4%) |
| Buccaneers | +225 (30.8%) | -275 (73.3%) |
| Saints | +230 (30.3%) | -280 (73.7%) |
The Falcons are 6-6 but still lead the lowly NFC South. They hold a one-game edge over the Buccaneers and Saints for the division lead and the unfortunate opportunity to likely host the Cowboys - or potentially the Eagles - in Round 1 of the playoffs.
The Packers have won three straight, including victories over the Lions and Chiefs, to climb well within playoff contention. They have the easiest remaining schedule in the league, which is why they have much shorter odds than the Vikings, Rams, and Seahawks despite having the same 6-6 record.
The Vikings have one of the toughest schedules remaining of NFC playoff contenders with two of their five remaining games against the Lions.