The 2022 Seattle Seahawks were an unusual story both as a conduit for betting and in general. Having seen the face of the franchise dealt to Denver in the offseason, very little was expected of the offense post-Russell Wilson. Yet Seattle surprised from the start, beating the Broncos in Week 1's Monday night finale, and later when Geno Smith won Comeback Player of Year.
So what's odd about a team outperforming their prescribed season win total of 5.5 with a 9-8 record and cashing as a significant underdog to make the playoffs? After all, this type of thing happens every NFL season.
Despite exceeding expectations, the Seahawks were big losers against the spread, going just 7-10 if you bet them in individual games with another loss against the number in their blowout defeat at San Francisco in the wild-card round. If you didn't see Seattle's surprising season coming before it started, you were hard-pressed to be profitable by jumping on the bandwagon midseason. The market got so enthralled with the Seahawks' story that they covered just one point spread in their final nine games.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.5 (-145/+125) |
| Division | +200 |
| Conference | +1100 |
| Super Bowl | +3500 |
| Estimated rating | 51/100 |
We are tasked with guessing whether the betting market's loss-inducing infatuation with the Seahawks has carried through the offseason and affected their odds in a way that sets the bar for success too high. Any 8.5 win total - priced at -110 on either side - would be the definition of mediocre. But the Seahawks' total is juiced to the over, suggesting it's lean to slightly above average.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAR | SEA -5 |
| 2 | @DET | DET -2.5 |
| 3 | CAR | SEA -4 |
| 4 | @NYG | NYG -1 |
| 6 | @CIN | CIN -4.5 |
| 7 | ARI | SEA -7 |
| 8 | CLE | SEA -2 |
| 9 | @BAL | BAL -3 |
| 10 | WSH | SEA -4 |
| 11 | @LAR | SEA -2 |
| 12 | SF | SF -1.5 |
| 13 | @DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 14 | @SF | SF -4 |
| 15 | PHI | PHI -2 |
| 16 | @TEN | SEA -2 |
| 17 | PIT | SEA -2.5 |
| 18 | @ARI | SEA -4.5 |
We've estimated that the rating of the Seahawks' Week 1 opponent - the Rams - is 36/100. That's good for a score of 9.7 out of a maximum of 27 possible spread points, while the near-average Seahawks get 13.7. Based on these estimations, the look-ahead point spread of Seahawks -5 adds only one point to account for Seattle's home-field advantage.
What's to like about the Seahawks
The Seahawks' defense facilitated shootout-style games, and while that helped Smith put up exciting numbers, it meant big changes had to be made this offseason. Defensive linemen Al Woods, Poona Ford, Shelby Harris, and Quinton Jefferson were all released, respectfully labelled bad fits for the Seahawks' new 3-4 scheme, but none were signed to significant deals elsewhere. Given Seattle allowed almost five yards per carry last year, an overhaul was in order.
Those moves cleared the deck to poach Dre'Mont Jones from Denver with a big deal, and the return of Jarran Reed. Meanwhile, Bobby Wagner is the more recognizable returnee, tasked with getting this group organized.
The biggest (re-)addition might be Jamal Adams, as he's back after tearing a quad in the season opener to lead the secondary. Seattle hopes they struck gold again in the draft. The Seahawks grabbed cornerback Devon Witherspoon with the fifth overall pick in April, a year after getting Tariq Woolen. Seattle knows how to pick - and coach up - corners.
What's not to like about the Seahawks
Given all the changes to the defense, it's prudent to take a wait-and-see approach before we beat up the Seahawks' defense based on last season's numbers. However, there's no guarantee that the change will be good.
As for the offense, it's a somewhat similar situation. The Seahawks' late struggles aligned with a slip in play from their two rookie tackles, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. We're assuming that was the effect of hitting a rookie wall and that they'll excel from start to finish this year, especially since Smith's play dropped off as well.
But with mid-tier pricing in the betting market, we're not getting that much value on hoping for the best on both sides of the ball.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | MVP | +4000 |
| Offensive POTY | +10000 | |
| Most passing yards | +3500 | |
| Most passing TD | +3000 | |
| Kenneth Walker | Most rushing yards | +3000 |
| Most rushing TD | +3000 | |
| DK Metcalf | Offensive POTY | +6000 |
| Most receptions | +3500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +3500 | |
| Most receiving TD | +2500 | |
| Tyler Lockett | Most receptions | +6500 |
| Most receiving yards | +6000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +3500 | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Offensive ROTY | +1500 |
| Most receptions | +6500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +10000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +7500 | |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +210 | |
| Zach Charbonnet | Offensive ROTY | +5000 |
| Devon Witherspoon | Defensive ROTY | +1000 |
| Tariq Woolen | Defensive POTY | +10000 |
| Jamal Adams | Comeback POTY | +8000 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | Most sacks | +5000 |
| Pete Carroll | Coach of the Year | +2500 |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the favorite for most receiving yards among rookies, and he's the third choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year among non-quarterbacks. However, there's some concern about how his body might hold up in a full NFL season after essentially missing his last year at Ohio State.
Before he got hurt, Adams was the type of impact player who was constantly noticeable - around the ball in the secondary and rushing the passer. If he stays healthy, and the Seahawks' defense does turn over a new leaf, why wouldn't Adams be a viable candidate to make it back-to-back Comeback Player of the Year award winners in Seattle?
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
