After years of being point-spread-covering machines and going 10-7 ATS in Mac Jones' first year, the Patriots lost money for their weekly bettors by going 7-9-1 ATS last season. With a 6-4 record through 10 games, New England had eyes on the playoffs again but limped to the finish and only covered once in the final seven contests. The days of blindly trusting Bill Belichick to cash tickets appear to be over.
The Patriots aren't a particularly interesting team this upcoming season. They're the fourth choice in the AFC East and haven't made any particularly splashy moves. However, that could change if New England signs Dalvin Cook. The Pats also squelched any wonder about whether they'd give up on Jones when they didn't pick a signal-caller in the draft.
The betting market seems to think that flirtation with a .500 season should be considered a success, which is a drop in expectation from last offseason.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 7.5 (+100/-120) |
| Division | +850 |
| Conference | +4000 |
| Super Bowl | +6000 |
| Estimated rating | 48/100 |
The Patriots were -125 to go over 7.5 wins in May. Now, they're favored to go under that total. That said, compared to the rest of the league, a team worthy of 7.5 wins coming out of the AFC East is worth a bump to 48 out of 100 - nearly a league-average rating.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | PHI -4.5 |
| 2 | MIA | MIA -2.5 |
| 3 | @NYJ | NYJ -4.5 |
| 4 | @DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 5 | NO | NE -2.5 |
| 6 | @LV | LV -1 |
| 7 | BUF | BUF -3.5 |
| 8 | @MIA | MIA -4 |
| 9 | WSH | NE -3.5 |
| 10 | IND | NE -4 |
| 12 | @NYG | NYG -1.5 |
| 13 | LAC | LAC -1.5 |
| 14 | @PIT | PIT -2 |
| 15 | KC | KC -4 |
| 16 | @DEN | DEN -2 |
| 17 | @BUF | BUF -6.5 |
| 18 | NYJ | NYJ -1 |
You can usually get pretty close to a team's projected regular-season win total by adding up how many games it's favored in via look-ahead point-spread markets. But New England is currently favored in just three contests - a good reason for interest in taking the under on its win total. The rationale behind the Patriots being underdogs so much is that they have a brutal home schedule that includes the Eagles, Chargers, and Chiefs. Plus, all three of their division rivals are rated significantly higher in the market.
What's to like about the Patriots
Hiring an actual offensive coordinator for your young quarterback is probably a good idea. For reasons that still haven't been fully explained, New England used Matt Patricia and Joe Judge - neither with an extensive background on offense - to be the primary stewards for Jones in his second year.
The Patriots welcomed back Bill O'Brien in January to be the offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach after he spent two years at Alabama. While his time with the Crimson Tide didn't overlap with Jones' tenure, one would assume they both speak the same language in play-calling.
Faith in Belichick to cover spreads at a high rate has waned, but the Patriots' defense and special teams should continue to give them an edge in the elements of the game that are either not seen in the box score or hard to predict. New England has been in the top five in non-offensive touchdowns in three of the last four seasons, leading the league last year. For example, Marcus Jones scored a punt return touchdown in the final seconds to beat the Jets in 2022. You often don't know how it'll happen, but it often does with the Patriots.
What's not to like about the Patriots
We can blame the coaching situation to a certain degree, but Jones' 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions are otherwise inexcusable for a hopeful franchise quarterback with a full year under his belt. The talent surrounding Jones leaves something to be desired. We've rated both their offensive line and receiving corps as below average.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | MVP | +6500 |
| Most passing yards | +8000 | |
| Most passing TD | +6500 | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Offensive POTY | +15000 |
| Most rushing yards | +1500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +3000 | |
| Most receptions | +6000 | |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | Most receptions | +8000 |
| Most receiving yards | +10000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +7500 | |
| Matthew Judon | Defensive POTY | +5000 |
| Most sacks | +1800 | |
| Christian Gonzalez | Defensive ROTY | +950 |
| Keion White | Defensive ROTY | +4500 |
| Bill Belichick | Coach of the Year | +2500 |
If Jones suddenly got in the race to lead the league in passing yards or touchdowns, it would be an even bigger surprise than these odds suggest. And the oddsmakers' expectation of this Patriots offense is that there's a better chance the running back leads the league in receptions than any of the wide receivers.
New England has an obvious Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate in cornerback Christian Gonzalez. The Oregon product will try to capitalize on Belichick's pressure schemes to step in front of a few more passes than Sauce Gardner did in winning the award last year. More under the radar is the Pats' second draft choice, defensive lineman Keion White.
Belichick should be in the mix for his first Coach of the Year since 2010 if he can get this group into the playoffs ahead of some stiff AFC competition. I just wouldn't bet on it.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
