With 13 victories, the Bills cruised over their 2022 regular-season win total despite playing in just 16 completed games. But when it came to playoff success, it came as a surprise to most when the Bengals marched into Orchard Park and - as they did a year earlier in Arrowhead Stadium - walked out with an upset win. Even more shockingly, it wasn't particularly close.
The Bills' biggest issue on that snowy day in western New York was that their team didn't seem to suit the conditions on offense (just 64 yards rushing) or defense (allowing 5.8 yards per play). Josh Allen and Buffalo's pass-centric approach seems ideal for benign conditions, while the Bills couldn't muster the traction for a decent pass rush against an offensive line ravaged by injury.
As often happens, a 13-3 straight-up record didn't guarantee Bills' bettors profitability against the spread, as they went 8-7-1 versus the number.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 10.5 (-135) |
| Division | +120 |
| Conference | +450 |
| Super Bowl | +900 |
| Estimated rating | 68/100 |
Buffalo's win total has come down, and its odds to win the AFC East have shifted from bettors having to lay significant juice last year to getting a plus-money price. This is due to a combination of the bitter taste in the market's collective mouth after last season and the improvement of a pair of teams within the division.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @NYJ | BUF -1.5 |
| 2 | LV | BUF -8 |
| 3 | @WSH | BUF -4.5 |
| 4 | MIA | BUF -3.5 |
| 5 | JAX | BUF -3.5 |
| 6 | NYG | BUF -7 |
| 7 | @NE | BUF -3.5 |
| 8 | TB | BUF -10 |
| 9 | @CIN | CIN -1 |
| 10 | DEN | BUF -6 |
| 11 | NYJ | BUF -4 |
| 12 | @PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 14 | @KC | KC -3.5 |
| 15 | DAL | BUF -4 |
| 16 | @LAC | BUF -1 |
| 17 | NE | BUF -6.5 |
| 18 | @MIA | MIA -1.5 |
The lines for the Bills' pair of games against the Dolphins are intriguing, with a five-point shift for the venue, even across the key number of -3. This continues a trend of some odd Week 18 lookahead point spreads, probably factoring in how strange things can get in the season's final week. By comparison, the difference between the Bills and their other AFC East opponents is three points (versus NE) and 2.5 points across the key number of -3 (versus NYJ).
Despite still not making a Super Bowl in 30 years, the Bills will be hunted. High-profile road games in Cincinnati and Kansas City should have similar lines based on our estimation of how tightly those teams are rated. The question is: Should those spreads be around a field goal like the Chiefs game or a pick'em like the matchup with the Bengals?
What's to like about the Bills
In short - Allen is the reason to like the Bills. Second in the league in yards per play last year, the Bills' offense should continue to light up the scoreboard in favorable conditions. After another year of seasoning for 23-year-olds James Cook and Khalil Shakir and the addition of star Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo's offense remains lean and mean.
Keeping payroll down on offense has allowed the Bills to spend on defense. They added Leonard Floyd to bolster the aforementioned pass rush, extended Ed Oliver, and expect to get Von Miller back. Unsurprisingly, the Bills' pass rush tailed off after Miller tore his ACL in the first week of December. Overall, it would be hard not to improve health-wise on defense this year after Oliver, Micah Hyde, Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds, Gregory Rousseau, and Damar Hamlin all missed time as well.
What's not to like about the Bills
At 34 years of age, Miller's return from reconstructive knee surgery in less than a year seems like quite the task. Floyd's been durable but is on his third team - usually a sign of a pending fall-off. While the assumption is better health for those mentioned above, once injuries hit in the NFL, they tend to persist.
We've gotten this far without mentioning Stefon Diggs' discontent. It's expected that gets ironed out, but controversy before training camp even begins doesn't jive with the connection we're told Diggs has with Allen.
Two of the Bills' three regular-season losses came in the division last year, and they had their hands full with the Dolphins despite facing Skylar Thompson in the wild-card round. Both Miami and the Jets are better this year, but are the Bills?
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | MVP | +800 |
| Offensive POTY | +3500 | |
| Most passing yards | +800 | |
| Most passing TD | +500 | |
| Most rushing TD | +6000 | |
| Stefon Diggs | Offensive POTY | +3000 |
| Most receptions | +1200 | |
| Most receiving yards | +2000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +1200 | |
| James Cook | Most rushing yards | +10000 |
| Most rushing TD | +7500 | |
| Dalton Kincaid | Offensive ROTY | +4000 |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +2000 | |
| Von Miller | Defensive POTY | +6000 |
| Most sacks | +5000 | |
| Leonard Floyd | Most sacks | +5000 |
| Demar Hamlin | Comeback POTY | -285 |
| Sean McDermott | Coach of the Year | +3500 |
The Bills' offense will once again be on the shoulders of Allen, which is why he's an MVP candidate. Since he can put up points with both his arm and his legs, a run at Offensive Player of the Year at far more lucrative odds is in play.
December trips to Los Angeles and Miami should provide peak weather for the Bills' offense at a time of year when that can be hard to come by. If the squeaky wheel does get the grease, Diggs is interesting for most receiving touchdowns at 12-1.
We don't have enough room in this space to get into the complicated issue of Hamlin's Comeback Player of the Year odds, but we haven't ever seen odds that short in that award market.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
