Andy Dalton and the Saints scored 17 points on the Browns in gale-force winds in Week 16. Carson Wentz couldn't muster that in ideal conditions at home a week later. In a season full of near-misses with totals, even with low expectations of Wentz, that was a bad handicap.
Other than betting totals, this season has been a good time. If you combine our ATS record on games in the round-robin moneyline parlay, and a 10-7 Monday Night Football record, we've gone 84-60-9 (58%) against the spread. The upset of the week and our favorite teaser are above water going into Week 18.
That brings up the matter of the season's final week. It's hard to believe that a slate so bizarre theoretically counts as 5.5% of the season, and if we bet it with the same exuberance as we do the rest of the season, that's probably a "we" problem.
| BET TYPE | LAST WEEK | SEASON (units) |
|---|---|---|
| ATS trio | 1-2 (-1.2) | 24-21-6 (+1) |
| ML upset | -1 | 6-10 (+0.2) |
| Totals | -1.1 | 5-12 (-8.2) |
| Teasers | +1 | 10-7 (+1.6) |
| TOTAL | -2.3 | -5.4 |
Best bets ATS
Steelers -2.5
Whoever wants to be excited about Deshaun Watson because of a couple explosive passing plays against the Commanders is welcome to that opinion, but in a week where "must-win" usually comes with a tax, this is fair value for a Steelers team that's 7-2 with T.J. Watt. The Steelers didn't pull out the game last week in Baltimore to lie down against the mediocre Browns.
Bills -7
If the Raiders beat the Chiefs, we get a highly motivated Bills team. But even if it's just a seeding situation for Buffalo on Sunday, ask the Dolphins how much fun the Bills were two seasons ago, when Buffalo didn't have anything to play for but hammered the desperate Fins 56-26.
The least important part of Monday's frightening events in Cincinnati is that the Bills didn't actually get to play a football game. If the Bills need to be ready for a playoff game next week, they should be going full-out for the vast majority of this contest.
Lastly, this line should be closer to Bills -10. It's only -7 because of the concept of Buffalo not needing it and the Patriots' desperation to clinch a playoff spot. It doesn't give enough caution to the fact that New England is a bad football team that were disposed of quite easily at home by the Bills a few weeks ago.
Broncos -1.5
The round-robin underdog moneyline parlay hit the presses early this week to make sure it got in your hands before anything wacky happened with spreads for the Raiders (+9), Titans (+6.5), Panthers (+3.5), Rams (+6.5), and Lions (+4.5). It didn't get up in time to include the Broncos, who were underdogs for more than three days.
At less than a field goal, we can still squeeze the Broncos in as a bet this week. The Bengals and Bills play simultaneously, though unfortunately not against each other, which should keep Cincinnati interested in winning because, like Buffalo, they can use the dress rehearsal.
With the Bengals likely to win, oddsmakers know that the game likely won't mean anything to the Chargers, who should sit their starters to avoid Charger-esque injury catastrophe. The Broncos will happily add a cosmetic win to their record, especially considering the rights to their 2023 first-round draft pick sit in a desk drawer in the Seahawks' front office.
Moneyline upset of the week
Our defined parameter for this section is underdogs paying at least +150.
Rams +220
Our favorite underdog play relative to price has seen the spread and moneyline dip slightly, but there's still value left in the Rams. A red-hot Cam Akers runs better than the 60 yards he had in the previous meeting, and Baker Mayfield improves on John Wolford's 178 yards and two interceptions in what was somehow a three-point game in Los Angeles. With Seattle's leading-tackler Jordyn Brooks going down with a torn ACL last week, there's a big hole in the already-leaky Seattle defense.
Best total bet
Cowboys / Commanders over 41.5
Sam Howell spent some of his college career with the tag of "potential first round pick," but was eventually downgraded to a draft afterthought. If you watched him weekly at North Carolina, you know that mobility and willingness to throw deep are his traits.
We know the Cowboys can score, too, and the Dallas defense has been just shaky enough to believe that the Commanders can match them in a game that should see both sides score 20 points. Howell can have more success than Wentz, especially if the Cowboys pull their starters in the second half, when they see the Eagles way ahead of the Giants.
Best 6-point teaser
Vikings -1.5 / Lions +10.5
An unconventional week calls for an unconventional teaser. The Vikings wouldn't normally be favored by more than a touchdown in Chicago, but against Nathan Peterman, with the Bears actively uninterested in winning due to draft position, we'll make the exception here and be willing to tease Minnesota down.
The Lions are going to be interested in ruining the Packers' season no matter what, and we're getting an extra point on the spread because of the idea that the Packers are more likely to win if Detroit has nothing to play for. Why not take that extra point of value and tease the game across 10, making us a winner in any one-score game?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
