NFL Week 13 betting takeaways: More quarterbacks fall
NFL fans would say Tom Brady did it again after a comeback win Monday night. Bettors would say Todd Bowles did it again, allowing the Buccaneers to reach the point of desperation while seemingly remaining unaware of who his quarterback is, just as we hypothesized ahead of Tampa Bay's clash with the Saints.
Opting for a pair of punts while trailing by two scores in the fourth quarter, Bowles remains risk-averse at every turn. That can keep a team alive when it's trailing, but it will do the same for an opponent battling a deficit of its own. It's an example of nuance beyond pure reliance on power ratings; a team's strategy must be evaluated independent of ability. Brady will bring a team back from the brink, but he can't be solely responsible for ensuring a favorite covers the spread.
This is our last regular-season look at the betting market's take on each NFL team, and the hierarchy remains influenced by the weekly flow of quarterbacks in and out of the lineup. Lamar Jackson and Jimmy Garoppolo are the latest signal-callers in need of replacement. Spoiler alert: The Ravens and 49ers will see a drop in bookmakers' power ratings next week.
How ratings work
We look at the betting market's assessment of each team based on the closing lines from the previous week's games, and then we estimate what each club is capable of going forward. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread before their most recent game. The number itself represents the percentage chance that a team beats an average opponent on a neutral field.
The range column is my evaluation of each team's potential after seeing them play this season. Obviously, clubs don't perform at the same level every week; they play within a range. It's our job as handicappers to predict how they'll perform based on things like the situation, on-field matchups, and roster/injury issues.
Rating before Week 13 kickoff
| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 74 | 65-80 |
| 49ers | 74 | 60-75 |
| Bills | 73 | 60-85 |
| Cowboys | 70 | 40-70 |
| Eagles | 63 | 50-75 |
| Dolphins | 61 | 50-70 |
| Ravens | 60 | 55-70 |
| Bengals | 58 | 50-70 |
| Buccaneers | 53 | 50-80 |
| Patriots | 52 | 40-55 |
| Titans | 51 | 40-60 |
| Raiders | 50 | 35-55 |
| Commanders | 50 | 30-50 |
| Chargers | 49 | 45-65 |
| Vikings | 49 | 45-65 |
| Jets | 48 | 35-50 |
| Packers | 48 | 40-55 |
| Seahawks | 47 | 35-50 |
| Jaguars | 46 | 35-50 |
| Browns | 46 | 40-65 |
| Saints | 45 | 40-60 |
| Steelers | 44 | 35-50 |
| Lions | 43 | 30-50 |
| Cardinals | 42 | 35-55 |
| Broncos | 39 | 30-50 |
| Colts | 38 | 35-55 |
| Falcons | 38 | 30-50 |
| Giants | 37 | 30-50 |
| Panthers | 32 | 20-40 |
| Bears | 28 | 20-45 |
| Rams | 20 | 20-60 |
| Texans | 15 | 15-35 |
The Bills fell from the top spot before last Thursday's game against the Patriots, as the spread went from -5.5 down to -3.5. That was quickly deemed a mistake as Buffalo manhandled New England, a team that rose for reasons that are something of a mystery.
The 49ers looked the part of the NFL's top team, even though most of that came after they lost Garoppolo for the season due to a foot injury. What the market does with San Francisco's rating will determine a lot over the final few weeks.
The Ravens dropped from the mid-50s to the mid-30s in last year's ratings after Jackson got hurt, and while they were competitive, they didn't win another game. From what we've seen of Baltimore this season, 60/100 seems too high.
Elsewhere in the AFC North, the Bengals beat the top-rated Chiefs. That begs the question - from someone with a Patrick Mahomes MVP bet: Should Mahomes be the favorite for Most Valuable Player after losing to both Josh Allen and Joe Burrow? Burrow is 10-1 and has a path to a division title, and perhaps the top seed in the AFC. If you're looking to defend a 9-1 bet on Mahomes, Burrow is worth a wager; that's probably true even if you have no position in the market.
The Eagles saw their lowest rating of the season last week, as they were just 4.5-point favorites against the Titans. That should have been a signal to back Philadelphia. The Eagles will return to at least the high 60s next week.
The Browns moved up with the return of Deshaun Watson, but he was predictably bad. If Cleveland had faced any team other than the Texans, it likely would have been blown out. Consider that in any short-term valuation of this team.
The Bears' rating didn't climb all the way back to where it was before Justin Fields got hurt, and for 58 minutes, that looked like a mistake. But the Packers somehow covered anyway.
We raise an eyebrow any time a team bursts through the artificial ceiling of 80 or falls through the floor below 20/100. The Texans, however, might be worth such a low rating after being blown out by an opponent that lacked a functional offense.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.