The number you got in Week 9 really mattered.
If you panic bet the Vikings -3.5, Buccaneers -3, and Chargers -3 early in the week, you lost one and pushed two. If you circled those favorites, bided your time, and entered the market at the best price available, you could've pushed with Minnesota while snaring -2.5 with Tampa and Los Angeles. That's a difference between -1.1 units and +1.9 units on your ledger - a three-unit swing.
Those lines and their movement are a function of changes in oddsmakers' ratings of each team based on circumstances such as injuries. When those factors change, a line goes on or off -3, and a bet can go from a winner to a push, or a push to a loss. Both add up over the season and factor into your bottom line.
How ratings work
We look at the betting market's assessment of each team based on the closing lines from the previous week's games and then we estimate what each club is capable of going forward. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread before their most recent game. The number itself represents the percentage chance that a team beats an average opponent on a neutral field.
The range column is my evaluation of each team's potential after seeing them play this season. Obviously, clubs don't perform at the same level every week; they play within a range. It's our job as handicappers to predict how they'll perform based on things like the situation, on-field matchups, and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider a team's range may be.
Rating before Week 9 kickoff
| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | 83 | 70-85 |
| Chiefs | 76 | 65-80 |
| Eagles | 76 | 50-75 |
| Buccaneers | 63 | 50-80 |
| 49ers | 62 | 50-70 |
| Cowboys | 62 | 40-70 |
| Ravens | 57 | 55-70 |
| Dolphins | 57 | 45-70 |
| Rams | 56 | 50-70 |
| Chargers | 55 | 45-65 |
| Vikings | 55 | 45-65 |
| Packers | 55 | 50-65 |
| Bengals | 54 | 50-70 |
| Patriots | 54 | 40-60 |
| Raiders | 50 | 40-60 |
| Cardinals | 49 | 40-60 |
| Seahawks | 46 | 30-45 |
| Saints | 45 | 40-60 |
| Colts | 42 | 40-60 |
| Jets | 42 | 30-50 |
| Browns | 42 | 40-65 |
| Commanders | 42 | 30-50 |
| Falcons | 41 | 30-50 |
| Giants | 39 | 25-50 |
| Broncos | 39 | 30-60 |
| Jaguars | 38 | 30-50 |
| Steelers | 38 | 35-50 |
| Lions | 36 | 30-50 |
| Bears | 36 | 30-45 |
| Panthers | 36 | 20-45 |
| Titans | 33 | 40-60 |
| Texans | 23 | 20-40 |
Notable Week 9 results
The big news from Week 9 was the Bills blowing an 11-point lead to the Jets. The bigger news, concerning Buffalo's starting quarterback's status, may be forthcoming. The Bills' astronomic rating started coming down even before kickoff, as they went from 13-point favorites down to 10.5.
The Eagles closed as 14-point road favorites at Houston on Thursday night. That couldn't have been a function of a significant rating change to the Texans - they were already the worst team in the league. That line thus has to be mostly attributed to a major upgrade for the Eagles - one they weren't able to live up to on that night.
We spoke last week of oddsmakers trying to tell us that the Buccaneers weren't very good. Their rating dropped this week, but after all eyes were forced to watch their contest against the Rams, are we sure they dropped far enough? And shouldn't the Rams be downgraded as well?
Speaking of teams failing to live up to their brand, the Packers took another loss to a downtrodden franchise. Spoiler alert: Based on its Week 10 point spread with the Cowboys, Green Bay is headed for a plummet.
The Sunday Night Football game was strangely intriguing, with the Titans covering comfortably. The Chiefs received a decent-sized upgrade due to coming off a bye following a big win over the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Titans were downgraded for playing without a legitimate passing game.
On Monday night, the Ravens' injuries were deemed significant enough to downgrade them. The missing point was that they were adding Roquan Smith, Tyus Bowser, and Calais Campbell to a defense that struggled the week before. They'll go right back to the low 60s before their next game.
The Carolina Panthers mystery continued, and we should've known that their upgrade - combined with a Bengals downgrade - was a recipe for disaster. A line that would've been -10 a week earlier was -7, and it turns out that would've been a more appropriate line.
With Jeff Saturday taking over, it's clear that the Colts haven't hit the bottom yet and are likely to drop further. However, they play the Raiders, who found another way to disappoint last week and have also yet to find their floor.
The Seahawks continue to validate their upward movement, winning and covering yet again. The Cardinals' rating should probably be stabilized well below average, especially since they don't have any more cards left to play after the return of DeAndre Hopkins.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
