We haven't looked at the best bets to win the NFL MVP since we wondered if there was any value on the oddsboard back on Feb. 16. It turns out, we picked out a trio of quarterbacks whose odds have tightened over the course of the offseason.
In futures betting, that's one of the main goals - buy something now before the price becomes less attractive later on. With Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Lamar Jackson already in pocket at better prices than below, is there anyone else who could see their number shorten in short order?
MVP odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +650 |
| Justin Herbert | +900 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +900 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1000 |
| Tom Brady | +1200 |
| Joe Burrow | +1400 |
| Russell Wilson | +1500 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott | +2000 |
| Derek Carr | +3000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +3000 |
| Kyler Murray | +3000 |
| Trey Lance | +3000 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +4000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +4000 |
| Matt Ryan | +5000 |
Odds available on theScore Bet, players not listed above available at 60-1 or longer
With our post-Super Bowl MVP picks taking up more of the implied win probability in the market, several top options have seen their odds lengthen, including the favorite - Josh Allen. This is important because there's rarely a surprise MVP. Jackson's and Mahomes' first seasons as a starter were something of an exception, while Matt Ryan's 2016 is the biggest recent shocker as he was longer than 100-1 before the campaign.
A quarterback has won nine straight NFL MVP awards and 13 of the last 14. Adrian Peterson's exceptional 2012 season on a mediocre team notwithstanding, we can't back a non-quarterback in this market, especially after seeing how far Cooper Kupp was from winning the award despite a near-historic campaign as a receiver. We also can't bet on a player from a team that's just OK.
That said, the offseason betting love for Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance is a bridge too far, particularly at their current prices. With the amount of time the betting community spends staring at the oddsboard without actual games being played, boredom can set in and a desire to make a splash can take over. Lance and Hurts would need to replicate Jackson's 2019 season, but neither is good enough to do it.
Best bet
Patrick Mahomes (+900)
The bar for Mahomes to jump in order to get MVP consideration got really high for a while there, didn't it?
Mahomes had almost 5,000 yards and nearly 40 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons on a team that won its division and hosted the AFC Championship Game in both campaigns. He had two total votes for MVP.
Does this mean the voters hate Mahomes? Of course not. It just means that a quarterback or two had moderately better seasons, and Mahomes' 2018 campaign of 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns became his expectation.
There's a perception that Mahomes' chances of having a big season have been hurt by Tyreek Hill's move to the Dolphins. While this may be true, Mahomes' campaign will seem much more impressive if his production is even slightly better than his average.
Meanwhile, Kansas City's odds to win the AFC West are the longest they've been since Mahomes took over. Therefore, if the team does win it, the "usual" Chiefs season will also be perceived differently.
Mahomes has a season-long passing yards total of 4,650.5, and a passing touchdown total of over 34.5. He'll need to blow by both totals, particularly the latter. But if he does, he'll do it by throwing to Travis Kelce and an unspectacular wide receiving corps of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman, as well as a pair of rookies.
Lastly, the Chiefs' schedule isn't easy to start the season with matchups against at least six teams with legitimate playoff hopes, but a winning record in those games will see Mahomes' odds shorten. At that point, you'll wish you had a +900 ticket to go along with our earlier trio.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
