NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds: The Micah Parsons project
Last year, we had no idea how the Cowboys were going to use someone many thought they shouldn't have drafted in the first place. Truthfully, they may not have even known themselves.
Micah Parsons operated as an off-ball linebacker at Penn State - something that's become devalued over recent years in the NFL - so he fell to Dallas with the 12th overall pick. Issues to the team's group of edge rushers then forced the team to use Parsons in a role that lends itself to stats and flashy production.
Even before he finished the 2021 season with 13 sacks, it was clear that Parsons would run away with Defensive Rookie of the Year. The experience was so unique that it's hard to find a comparable circumstance on the oddsboard for the 2022 award.
Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
| PLAYER | POSITION | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | EDGE | +500 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | EDGE | +600 |
| Quay Walker | EDGE | +600 |
| Kyle Hamilton | S | +700 |
| Derek Stingley | CB | +700 |
| Travon Walker | EDGE | +800 |
| Ahmad Gardner | CB | +900 |
| Devin Lloyd | LB | +900 |
| Nakobe Dean | LB | +1600 |
| Jermaine Johnson | EDGE | +1600 |
| Kaiir Elam | CB | +2500 |
| Daxton Hill | S | +2500 |
| George Karlaftis | DE | +2500 |
| Jordan Davis | DL | +3000 |
| Lewis Cine | S | +3300 |
| Logan Hall | EDGE | +3300 |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | +3300 |
| David Ojabo | EDGE | +4000 |
| Brian Asamoah | LB | +5000 |
| Andrew Booth Jr. | CB | +5000 |
Ironically, first overall pick Travon Walker's best work in college happened in the opposite of Parsons' role. Walker, known for playing the run even more effectively than he is at rushing the passer, is less likely to rack up the eye-catching stats, which is why the first defensive player off the board last weekend is not even the first "Walker" listed on the board above.
The trio of favorites should have the best chance to mirror Parsons' stats. It's really difficult for a cornerback to stand out consistently unless they're converting their few opportunities into numerous interceptions. So positionally, we'll keep our eyes on the front seven as we look for decent value.
Best bets
Devin Lloyd (+900)
Linebackers took advantage of the historically incredible Georgia front's ability to create holes to run through. The Jaguars liked this enough to take Walker first, but then they decided to take a linebacker with their next first-round pick. Devin Lloyd should be able to get through the holes that the team is asking Walker and Josh Allen to create. If Walker isn't going to put up the counting stats, someone has to.
Jordan Davis (+3000)
Maybe it's unfair to expect the voters' football IQ to tune in on Davis when his main job is keeping multiple blockers occupied at once, but his absurd size should be noticeable enough in the middle of the Eagles' defense. Instead, at 30-1, we'll put more faith in Philadelphia's coaching staff to prove that Davis is a revitalizing force who will make everyone else look better.
Brian Asamoah (+5000)
The Vikings may have a new coaching staff, but they call the NFL a "copycat league" for a reason. If we're looking for "another Micah Parsons," look no further than third-round pick Asamoah. Likely drafted that low because he's just six feet tall (compared to the 6-3 Parsons), the Oklahoma product can play a hybrid linebacker position, combining coverage skills with blitzing ability. At 50-1, maybe he's around the ball enough to find the highlight reel a few times and catch lightning in a bottle within the short sample size of an NFL season.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.