Bills-Chiefs player props: Star receivers to go over, tight ends to score
This week's soundtrack for scanning the player prop menu included a modern Tennessee rock band, classic rock you know the words to, and 90s boy band pop that you wish you didn't know as well as you do. For the divisional-round finale, we'll turn to a lesser-known group, Kansas City's alt-punk rock band, The Get Up Kids, to maintain the playoff intensity after a long weekend.
"Action & Action"
We'll start with two bets for the price of, well, two bets. We've come so far in our player prop betting this season that I won't choose between the top wide receivers on the Bills and Chiefs but instead bet on both getting loose deep.
If your sportsbook offers a long pass completion for the game, that's a far simpler proposition, but we're betting on this game to feature quarterbacks making long throws against defenses that aren't really capable of stopping them.
The Chiefs' secondary has struggled against the deep ball and was victimized numerous times by Josh Allen in their Week 5 matchup. Meanwhile, this is the first time that the Bills will feel Tre'Davious White's absence since they gave up 363 yards to the Buccaneers in a Week 14 game that ended with a long touchdown pass. No one on the respective defenses can cover Tyreek Hill or Stefon Diggs.
Pick: Tyreek Hill over 70.5 receiving yards / Stefon Diggs over 71.5 receiving yards
A TD that's definitely going to happen
It took less than "Ten Minutes" for Dawson Knox to give us "Something To Write Home About" for our round-robin touchdown parlay last week. We're not getting quite the same price with Knox this time around, but we want players who are certain to be on the field near the goal line and can also score from distance.
Knox scored the first touchdown in the AFC Championship Game last year on a 3-yard pass designed specifically for him. In Week 5, he scored a 53-yarder on a broken play that Allen created. If he can do either, or anything in-between, "I'll Catch You" at the window.
Pick: Dawson Knox anytime touchdown (+175)
A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does
Reggie and the Full Effect was a Get Up Kids side project. With Patrick Mahomes at the helm, the Chiefs' red-zone offense is one big side project for Andy Reid. There are numerous running backs to choose from, a group of capable receivers led by Hill, and of course, Travis Kelce. However, those weapons are all priced accordingly. The Chiefs have a pair of other tight ends who get significant snaps in Blake Bell (342/1260) and Noah Gray (306/1260).
Depending on your sportsbook, these two are priced anywhere from the same (at 10-1) to drastically different. As always, shopping for the best price on each is a good practice, with an eye on taking a half-unit on each at the highest payout available. Having even one of these two find the end zone would make for a "Red Letter Day."
Pick: Blake Bell anytime touchdown / Noah Gray anytime touchdown (play down to +1000 on each)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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