Bucs-Pats best bets: Back Brady, Bucs in return to Foxboro?
The storylines for the season's most anticipated Sunday Night Football game so far are endless, and by now, you've probably read extensively about all of them.
So instead of another summary, let's dive straight into how we're betting Bucs-Pats:
C Jackson Cowart: Patriots team total under 20
With everyone focused on Tom Brady's return to the franchise where he spent the first 20 years of his career, it seems like we've entirely forgotten about the matchup on the other side of the ball - one that heavily favors Brady's new squad.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, who has spent all week fielding questions about his organization's longtime QB, is fittingly coming off the worst game of his professional career. The rookie threw three picks against the Saints (he had three total in his final year at Alabama) and has led his team on just four touchdown drives through three games.
The Buccaneers defense surrendered 20-plus points in each of the first three weeks but has consistently faced offenses with more firepower than what New England can offer, especially with pass-catching savant James White out for the campaign. Don't expect the Pats' new passer to steal the spotlight against the GOAT.
Alex Moretto: Under 49.5
The chess match between Brady and Bill Belichick will be fascinating here. Tampa Bay might have gotten caught looking ahead last week, but that doesn't mean we should expect fireworks from this offense against a very well-coached New England defense.
The Bucs have had a miserable time trying to run the ball this season and will also be without key blocker and receiving outlet Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots rank fifth in yards per play allowed, while Tampa Bay ranks near the median in yards per pass and near the bottom of the league in yards per rush. This offensive unit will have to work for its opportunities, especially with Belichick implementing a few wrinkles for Brady's return to Gillette.
New England will need its defense to come up big because points won't come easy on offense. It's all about the rushing attack for them, but no one runs on the Bucs. And with the Pats' pass offense still looking to get into a rhythm, don't expect an air raid here, even if Tampa's secondary has been vulnerable. This is going to be a defensive battle that comes down to which unit can make plays when it counts: Brady's offense or Belichick's defense?
Matt Russell: Patriots +7
The Sunday night chase game for bettors is the most basic of betting angles when the world is on one side, and that's certainly the case here with everyone rushing to back the Buccaneers.
So how does New England hang in with the champs? Fundamentally, if the Falcons can keep it within a field goal through three quarters in Tampa, the Patriots certainly can. From there, New England may opt not to throw multiple pick-sixes. More specifically, the Bucs offense may struggle to create short third downs with a minimally existent run game - plus third downs will be more difficult without Gronkowski.
On offense, Jones' stats against New Orleans looked a lot worse than what he deserved if you actually watched the interceptions. Josh McDaniels will put him in position to succeed against a Tampa secondary that's got some injury-related holes in it.
With the betting universe backing the Bucs and the Patriots known for surprising in an underdog role, this is a bet we have to make. The only question is whether or not we can get +7.5 by game time.